ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 There was a storm in January of either 2001-2003 time frame. I remember it was supposed to be all snow. Even up to the night before. That morning Drag was on the desk and wrote the AFD and it ended up warming enough to be an ice storm for NCT and the snow was confined to north of pike. Drag ended up going ice storm warning here and was correct. I still remember the AFD he wrote. It was a Saturday storm. I wonder in anyone recalls the date? Might have been 1/6/05. I don't think it was 2003 though the 1/3/03 storm brought a lot of sleet to N CT. But I don't recall much ZR with that. This one I don't think will have much ice. Might be a narrow zone for a time but the snow line will be collapsing SE for the latter half of the storm so any narrow zones of ice are probably not going to remain static for very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 There was a storm in January of either 2001-2003 time frame. I remember it was supposed to be all snow. Even up to the night before. That morning Drag was on the desk and wrote the AFD and it ended up warming enough to be an ice storm for NCT and the snow was confined to north of pike. Drag ended up going ice storm warning here and was correct. I still remember the AFD he wrote. It was a Saturday storm. I wonder in anyone recalls the date? That sounds like the early January 03 storm it may have been on 1/3 or 1/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Might have been 1/6/05. I don't think it was 2003 though the 1/3/03 storm brought a lot of sleet to N CT. But I don't recall much ZR with that. This one I don't think will have much ice. Might be a narrow zone for a time but the snow line will be collapsing SE for the latter half of the storm so any narrow zones of ice are probably not going to remain static for very long. it may have been that 05 one.i was at my other house then. I just know everyone had us all snow and Drag pulled the plug early that morning. I wish I saved the AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Any chance this continues to come west or have we seen the furthest of the west solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I am east of IJD I agree Bufkit looks retched for IJD Wilimantic airport = snowhole of Eastern, CT. Even my weather here is much different than what happens in that barren wasteland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not really. Very tight clustering at 00z near or just inside of the benchmark. See if we can get that over or just to the E of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Any chance this continues to come west or have we seen the furthest of the west solutions? There is always a chance, especially with systems coming out of the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hayden has been knocking it out of the park with this midnight forecasts/AFDs If we had ever had a strong high, this would have been a blizzard. 50/50 Low, as well? Epic. One or the other, though and this would go KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wilimantic airport = snowhole of Eastern, CT. Even my weather here is much different than what happens in that barren wasteland. Yes, but it's fine to use as a point for a model sounding. Gives you a good idea of what's happening nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 You should add a "Regards" to end your posts. Not sure what you mean, but the fact that a bunch of people are seeing that as well, sort of shows you it's complicated. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 SREF are toasty and juicier, not going east folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This is the one I was thinking of. Any similarities? PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTSNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON, MA200 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2005THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL REPORTS FROM THE ROUGHLY 9 HOURWINTER STORM THAT AFFECTED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...8 JANUARY 2005.IT BEGAN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A MIXTURE OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.THE STORM OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY FORENOON.PRECIPITATION CHANGED TO ALL SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES NORTH OFTHE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.THE SOUTH COAST RECEIVED MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN FROM THIS EVENT.NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE RECEIVED THEHIGHEST SNOWFALL IN THE TAUNTON FORECAST AREA.NORTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT AND HAMPDEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRALMASSACHUSETTS WERE HARDEST HIT BY FREEZING RAIN...RESULTINGIN DOWNED LIMBS...TREES AND POWERLINES...AS WELL AS POWEROUTAGES.MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE DAMAGE REPORTS CAN BE FOUND INOUR LOCAL STORM REPORT SUMMARY (BOSLSRBOX).APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVEOBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THISSUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE ATHTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTSSNOWFALL OF(INCHES) MEASUREMENTMASSACHUSETTS...ESSEX COUNTY...METHUEN 7.0 729 PM 1/8 SPOTTERHAVERHILL 6.0 1112 PM 1/8 SPOTTERNEWBURYPORT 6.0 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVERGEORGETOWN 5.5 700 PM 1/8 SKYWARNBEVERLY 4.5 950 PM 1/8 SPOTTERTOPSFIELD 4.3 935 PM 1/8 SPOTTERDANVERS 3.2 700 PM 1/8 SKYWARNWEST PEABODY 3.1 700 PM 1/8 SKYWARNSALEM 3.0 700 PM 1/8 SKYWARNPEABODY 2.7 700 PM 1/8 SKYWARNMARBLEHEAD 2.5 740 PM 1/8 SPOTTER...FRANKLIN COUNTY...LEVERETT 5.0 700 PM 1/8 COOP OBSERVERNORTHFIELD 4.0 615 AM 1/9 SPOTTERSUNDERLAND 3.9 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVERWHATELY 3.8 608 PM 1/8 SPOTTERSHELBURNE 3.5 443 AM 1/9 SPOTTERASHFIELD 3.0 620 PM 1/8 SPOTTER...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...GOSHEN 4.5 913 PM 1/8 SPOTTERAMHERST 3.3 600 PM 1/8WORTHINGTON CENTER 2.7 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVERGRANBY 1.9 800 AM 1/9...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...CHELMSFORD 6.5 728 PM 1/8 SKYWARNTOWNSEND 6.3 630 PM 1/8 SPOTTERNORTH BILLERICA 6.0 938 PM 1/8 SPOTTERPEPPERELL 5.8 753 PM 1/8 SPOTTERGROTON 5.3 643 PM 1/8 SPOTTERAYER 5.0 832 PM 1/8 SKYWARNDUNSTABLE 4.9 1215 PM 1/9 SPOTTERBILLERICA 4.8 850 PM 1/8 SPOTTERREADING 4.5 600 AM 1/9 SPOTTERWALTHAM 4.0 435 PM 1/8 SKYWARNMAYNARD 3.2 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVERWOBURN 3.0 1106 PM 1/8 SPOTTERHUDSON 2.8 955 PM 1/8 SPOTTERWAKEFIELD 2.8 720 PM 1/8 SPOTTERSTONEHAM 2.5 837 PM 1/8 SPOTTERLINCOLN 2.0 700 PM 1/8 SKYWARNNATICK 2.0 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVER...NORFOLK COUNTY...NORWOOD AIRPORT 0.6 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVEREAST MILTON 0.5 800 AM 1/9 BLUE HILL OBS.RANDOLPH 0.5 800 AM 1/9...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...BROCKTON 0.2 1104 PM 1/8 SPOTTER...SUFFOLK COUNTY...BOSTON 1.5 655 PM 1/8 LOGAN AIRPORTWINTHROP 1.4 800 PM 1/8...WORCESTER COUNTY...GARDNER 5.5 810 AM 1/9 SPOTTERLEOMINSTER 4.0 516 PM 1/8 SKYWARNWEST BROOKFIELD 3.5 853 PM 1/8 SPOTTERRUTLAND 3.3 435 PM 1/8 SKYWARNWORCESTER 3.0 217 PM 1/8 SKYWARN ELEV. 900 FTWORCESTER 2.6 715 PM 1/8 AIRPORTPETERSHAM 0.5 1210 AM 1/9 SPOTTERNEW HAMPSHIRE...CHESHIRE COUNTY...MARLBOROUGH 5.0 650 PM 1/8 SKYWARNHINSDALE 4.0 1003 PM 1/8 SPOTTERMARLOW 4.0 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVERWALPOLE 4.0 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVERWINCHESTER 4.0 748 PM 1/8 SPOTTERKEENE 3.4 756 PM 1/8 SPOTTER...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...NASHUA 5.8 623 PM 1/8 SPOTTERHUDSON 5.0 602 PM 1/8 SPOTTERMANCHESTER 5.0 615 PM 1/8 SPOTTERHUDSON 4.8 856 PM 1/8 COOP OBSERVERFRANCESTOWN 4.5 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVERHOLLIS 4.5 600 PM 1/8 SKYWARNSOUTH WEARE 4.5 810 PM 1/8 SPOTTERWILTON 4.5 800 PM 1/8 SPOTTERMILFORD 4.3 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVERGREENFIELD 4.0 1016 PM 1/8 SPOTTERWEARE 4.0 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVER$TLM/EVT/MCJ/DRAG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 If we had ever had a strong high, this would have been a blizzard. 50/50 Low, as well? Epic. One or the other, though and this would go KU. Would have been slower moving as well. But we will try and get lucky in a fast mover amidst an unfavorable synoptic setup. We've gotten unlucky this winter a couple times and the variance eventually evens out. If we hadn't retuned to a colder pattern this would have had no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Could be the 1st time this season the thought of snow peaks my interest. See what 12z today brings. Personal thougths on the current models. 00z Op Euro may be a hair too amped but I would not discount the solution and its not that much different that the GFS/GGEM. 00z GFS was about as perfect a track for the SE MA folks looking for a substantial snowstorm 00z GGEM was a similar track to the GFS and huge hit. 00z Euro/GFS Ensm both have a track just outside the BM. Tough to argue against them right now 06z Op GFS looks out of sync with the 00z OP/ENSM and 06 Ensm runs so I would discount it at this time until we see what the 12z run does today. Still plenty of time for the track to adjust on this one. I don't a westward track being a threat given the progressive nature of the overall hemispheric pattern as well as the upstream kicker that will be knocking on it's heel over the GL. A track inside the BM could still happen and that would bring a dose of rains to the SE MA area and CC before a transitions to snow with the heaviest snow further inland along the 1-495 belt. This storm will have a tight baroclinic zone on the west side of the track due to the retreating high preceding the storm and the progressiveness of the storm. There will likely be quite a few in here on the outside looking in on this storm. Peace out.... Not sure what you mean, but the fact that a bunch of people are seeing that as well, sort of shows you it's complicated. That's all. And I mentioned it yesterday AM in my quoted post above. My "Regards" comment is something LC did on these Forums when he would make a matter of fact point with emotion behind it. You do it a lot in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yes, but it's fine to use as a point for a model sounding. Gives you a good idea of what's happening nearby. Is the lower elevation of the airport really a good point to use? It seems likes it is in a real low valley compared to the hills around it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 SREF are toasty and juicier, not going east folks. 700mb low travels over NYC over to PVD and than BOS. Best snows would be N & W of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 SREFs still are rather useless at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 SREFs still are rather useless at this stage. Always useless. But those amped up juicy ARW members are always fun. The NMM members are all well SE and dry. Pretty par for the course for those two sets. Here's the ARW which is always fun to look at, much more fun than the boring NMM members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 And I mentioned it yesterday AM in my quoted post above. My "Regards" comment is something LC did on these Forums when he would make a matter of fact point with emotion behind it. You do it a lot in here. There isn't emotion..lol. It's pointing out the complexity here. I'm not even sure elevation matters since it seems to be the 850-800 layer that may cause the most issues. If you look at the hi res euro, you can see that the intense lift is causing a rather whacky 850 temp structure where 850 temps below 0C are under the intense lift at said time. It almost could be something where areas under intense lift are snow, but areas perhaps even just west of that are a mix of something. It's very borderline and difficult to determine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Would have been slower moving as well. But we will try and get lucky in a fast mover amidst an unfavorable synoptic setup. We've gotten unlucky this winter a couple times and the variance eventually evens out. If we hadn't retuned to a colder pattern this would have had no chance. That is what I meant by "epic" when referencing the significance of a 50/50 low. No complaints, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 SREF are toasty and juicier, not going east folks. Based on the 12z Nam, Its looks like its may be coming west this run as well, Stronger vortmax @H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Based on the 12z Nam, Its looks like its may be coming west this run as well, Stronger vortmax @H5 Didn't the last Nam look like that too but then **** the bed to the ene and strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 There isn't emotion..lol. It's pointing out the complexity here. I'm not even sure elevation matters since it seems to be the 850-800 layer that may cause the most issues. If you look at the hi res euro, you can see that the intense lift is causing a rather whacky 850 temp structure where 850 temps below 0C are under the intense lift at said time. It almost could be something where areas under intense lift are snow, but areas perhaps even just west of that are a mix of something. It's very borderline and difficult to determine. Yes I saw the "goofy" 850mb layer and I agree that will be the demarkation line for snow. Typical to see that as the system is bombing out though. Would make for some happy folks if we can get that to occur sooner. I still think this will have a nice ML deformation band on the western periphery and if I had to guess where that would at this time would be over NW CT into the ORH Hills over to KGAY, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Didn't the last Nam look like that too but then **** the bed to the ene and strung out. I am looking at 06z and 12z, Much better then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wilimantic airport = snowhole of Eastern, CT. Even my weather here is much different than what happens in that barren wasteland.I am probably closest to it and I concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I am probably closest to it and I concur.even downtown Williamantic is better, Windham is another world. Won't matter much in this setup though,get under an intense band and you rip right to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 even downtown Williamantic is better, Windham is another world. Won't matter much in this setup though,get under an intense band and you rip right to the coastThat is true too. It only matters when it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I am looking at 06z and 12z, Much better then 06z Oh good! Although I feel that anything more than 4 inches is a win up here. I don't have any real sense of storms like this which have the precip constricted on the nw side. With this track I would've though we could get a nice deformation band somewhere up here. I guess like usual the 700 track is important. Baroclinic zone said the GFS I think had it going PVD to Bos....great for Ray but no for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nam is crap lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Oh good! Although I feel that anything more than 4 inches is a win up here. I don't have any real sense of storms like this which have the precip constricted on the nw side. With this track I would've though we could get a nice deformation band somewhere up here. I guess like usual the 700 track is important. Baroclinic zone said the GFS I think had it going PVD to Bos....great for Ray but no for us. Once it moved off the coast it was more strung out like 06z, It did get a little more precip back NW though but it was weaker and ended up about the same as 06z, FWIW and that is not much, Should start to get close to the RGEM range, Maybe just outside but will have a general idea at 12z where it is down south along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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