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Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

ineedsnow

By ineedsnow,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

There was a storm in January of either 2001-2003 time frame. I remember it was supposed to be all snow. Even up to the night before. That morning Drag was on the desk and wrote the AFD and it ended up warming enough to be an ice storm for NCT and the snow was confined to north of pike. Drag ended up going ice storm warning here and was correct. I still remember the AFD he wrote. It was a Saturday storm. I wonder in anyone recalls the date?

Might have been 1/6/05. I don't think it was 2003 though the 1/3/03 storm brought a lot of sleet to N CT. But I don't recall much ZR with that.

This one I don't think will have much ice. Might be a narrow zone for a time but the snow line will be collapsing SE for the latter half of the storm so any narrow zones of ice are probably not going to remain static for very long.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

There was a storm in January of either 2001-2003 time frame. I remember it was supposed to be all snow. Even up to the night before. That morning Drag was on the desk and wrote the AFD and it ended up warming enough to be an ice storm for NCT and the snow was confined to north of pike. Drag ended up going ice storm warning here and was correct. I still remember the AFD he wrote. It was a Saturday storm. I wonder in anyone recalls the date?

That sounds like the early January 03 storm it may have been on 1/3 or 1/4

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Might have been 1/6/05. I don't think it was 2003 though the 1/3/03 storm brought a lot of sleet to N CT. But I don't recall much ZR with that.

This one I don't think will have much ice. Might be a narrow zone for a time but the snow line will be collapsing SE for the latter half of the storm so any narrow zones of ice are probably not going to remain static for very long.

it may have been that 05 one.i was at my other house then. I just know everyone had us all snow and Drag pulled the plug early that morning. I wish I saved the AFD
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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

This is the one I was thinking of.

 

Any similarities?

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON, MA
200 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2005

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL REPORTS FROM THE ROUGHLY 9 HOUR
WINTER STORM THAT AFFECTED SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...
8 JANUARY 2005.

IT BEGAN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A MIXTURE OF SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT.

THE STORM OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY FORENOON.

PRECIPITATION CHANGED TO ALL SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES NORTH OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

THE SOUTH COAST RECEIVED MOSTLY PLAIN RAIN FROM THIS EVENT.

NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE RECEIVED THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL IN THE TAUNTON FORECAST AREA.

NORTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT AND HAMPDEN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS WERE HARDEST HIT BY FREEZING RAIN...RESULTING
IN DOWNED LIMBS...TREES AND POWERLINES...AS WELL AS POWER
OUTAGES.

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THESE DAMAGE REPORTS CAN BE FOUND IN
OUR LOCAL STORM REPORT SUMMARY (BOSLSRBOX).

APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS
SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT


MASSACHUSETTS

...ESSEX COUNTY...
METHUEN 7.0 729 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
HAVERHILL 6.0 1112 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
NEWBURYPORT 6.0 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVER
GEORGETOWN 5.5 700 PM 1/8 SKYWARN
BEVERLY 4.5 950 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
TOPSFIELD 4.3 935 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
DANVERS 3.2 700 PM 1/8 SKYWARN
WEST PEABODY 3.1 700 PM 1/8 SKYWARN
SALEM 3.0 700 PM 1/8 SKYWARN
PEABODY 2.7 700 PM 1/8 SKYWARN
MARBLEHEAD 2.5 740 PM 1/8 SPOTTER

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
LEVERETT 5.0 700 PM 1/8 COOP OBSERVER
NORTHFIELD 4.0 615 AM 1/9 SPOTTER
SUNDERLAND 3.9 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVER
WHATELY 3.8 608 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
SHELBURNE 3.5 443 AM 1/9 SPOTTER
ASHFIELD 3.0 620 PM 1/8 SPOTTER

...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...
GOSHEN 4.5 913 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
AMHERST 3.3 600 PM 1/8
WORTHINGTON CENTER 2.7 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVER
GRANBY 1.9 800 AM 1/9

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
CHELMSFORD 6.5 728 PM 1/8 SKYWARN
TOWNSEND 6.3 630 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
NORTH BILLERICA 6.0 938 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
PEPPERELL 5.8 753 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
GROTON 5.3 643 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
AYER 5.0 832 PM 1/8 SKYWARN
DUNSTABLE 4.9 1215 PM 1/9 SPOTTER
BILLERICA 4.8 850 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
READING 4.5 600 AM 1/9 SPOTTER
WALTHAM 4.0 435 PM 1/8 SKYWARN
MAYNARD 3.2 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVER
WOBURN 3.0 1106 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
HUDSON 2.8 955 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
WAKEFIELD 2.8 720 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
STONEHAM 2.5 837 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
LINCOLN 2.0 700 PM 1/8 SKYWARN
NATICK 2.0 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVER

...NORFOLK COUNTY...
NORWOOD AIRPORT 0.6 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVER
EAST MILTON 0.5 800 AM 1/9 BLUE HILL OBS.
RANDOLPH 0.5 800 AM 1/9

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
BROCKTON 0.2 1104 PM 1/8 SPOTTER

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
BOSTON 1.5 655 PM 1/8 LOGAN AIRPORT
WINTHROP 1.4 800 PM 1/8

...WORCESTER COUNTY...
GARDNER 5.5 810 AM 1/9 SPOTTER
LEOMINSTER 4.0 516 PM 1/8 SKYWARN
WEST BROOKFIELD 3.5 853 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
RUTLAND 3.3 435 PM 1/8 SKYWARN
WORCESTER 3.0 217 PM 1/8 SKYWARN ELEV. 900 FT
WORCESTER 2.6 715 PM 1/8 AIRPORT
PETERSHAM 0.5 1210 AM 1/9 SPOTTER

NEW HAMPSHIRE

...CHESHIRE COUNTY...
MARLBOROUGH 5.0 650 PM 1/8 SKYWARN
HINSDALE 4.0 1003 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
MARLOW 4.0 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVER
WALPOLE 4.0 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVER
WINCHESTER 4.0 748 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
KEENE 3.4 756 PM 1/8 SPOTTER

...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...
NASHUA 5.8 623 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
HUDSON 5.0 602 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
MANCHESTER 5.0 615 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
HUDSON 4.8 856 PM 1/8 COOP OBSERVER
FRANCESTOWN 4.5 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVER
HOLLIS 4.5 600 PM 1/8 SKYWARN
SOUTH WEARE 4.5 810 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
WILTON 4.5 800 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
MILFORD 4.3 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVER
GREENFIELD 4.0 1016 PM 1/8 SPOTTER
WEARE 4.0 700 AM 1/9 COOP OBSERVER

$

TLM/EVT/MCJ/DRAG

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

If we had ever had a strong high, this would have been a blizzard.

50/50 Low, as well? Epic.

One or the other, though and this would go KU.

Would have been slower moving as well.

But we will try and get lucky in a fast mover amidst an unfavorable synoptic setup. We've gotten unlucky this winter a couple times and the variance eventually evens out.

If we hadn't retuned to a colder pattern this would have had no chance.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Could be the 1st time this season the thought of snow peaks my interest.  See what 12z today brings.

Personal thougths on the current models.

00z Op Euro may be a hair too amped but I would not discount the solution and its not that much different that the GFS/GGEM.

00z GFS was about as perfect a track for the SE MA folks looking for a substantial snowstorm

00z GGEM was a similar track to the GFS and huge hit.

 

00z Euro/GFS Ensm both have a track just outside the BM.

Tough to argue against them right now

 

06z Op GFS looks out of sync with the 00z OP/ENSM and 06 Ensm runs so I would discount it at this time until we see what the 12z run does today. 

 

Still plenty of time for the track to adjust on this one.  I don't a westward track being a threat given the progressive nature of the overall hemispheric pattern as well as the upstream kicker that will be knocking on it's heel over the GL.

 

A track inside the BM could still happen and that would bring a dose of rains to the SE MA area and CC before a transitions to snow with the heaviest snow further inland along the 1-495 belt.

 

This storm will have a tight baroclinic zone on the west side of the track due to the retreating high preceding the storm and the progressiveness of the storm.  There will likely be quite a few in here on the outside looking in on this storm.

 

Peace out....

 

 

Not sure what you mean, but the fact that a bunch of people are seeing that as well, sort of shows you it's complicated. That's all.

 

And I mentioned it yesterday AM in my quoted post above.

My "Regards" comment is something LC did on these Forums when he would make a matter of fact point with emotion behind it.

You do it a lot in here.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

SREFs still are rather useless at this stage.

 

Always useless.

 

But those amped up juicy ARW members are always fun.  The NMM members are all well SE and dry.  Pretty par for the course for those two sets. 

 

Here's the ARW which is always fun to look at, much more fun than the boring NMM members.

 

f63.gif

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

And I mentioned it yesterday AM in my quoted post above.

My "Regards" comment is something LC did on these Forums when he would make a matter of fact point with emotion behind it.

You do it a lot in here.

 

There isn't emotion..lol. It's pointing out the complexity here. I'm not even sure elevation matters since it seems to be the 850-800 layer that may cause the most issues. If you look at the hi res euro, you can see that the intense lift is causing a rather whacky 850 temp structure where 850 temps below 0C are under the intense lift at said time. It almost could be something where areas under intense lift are snow, but areas perhaps even just west of that are a mix of something. It's very borderline and difficult to determine.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Would have been slower moving as well.

But we will try and get lucky in a fast mover amidst an unfavorable synoptic setup. We've gotten unlucky this winter a couple times and the variance eventually evens out.

If we hadn't retuned to a colder pattern this would have had no chance.

 That is what I meant by "epic" when referencing the significance of a 50/50 low.

No complaints, though.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

There isn't emotion..lol. It's pointing out the complexity here. I'm not even sure elevation matters since it seems to be the 850-800 layer that may cause the most issues. If you look at the hi res euro, you can see that the intense lift is causing a rather whacky 850 temp structure where 850 temps below 0C are under the intense lift at said time. It almost could be something where areas under intense lift are snow, but areas perhaps even just west of that are a mix of something. It's very borderline and difficult to determine.

Yes I saw the "goofy" 850mb layer and I agree that will be the demarkation line for snow.  Typical to see that as the system is bombing out though.  Would make for some happy folks if we can get that to occur sooner.  I still think this will have a nice ML deformation band on the western periphery and if I had to guess where that would at this time would be over NW CT into the ORH Hills over to KGAY,  

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

I am looking at 06z and 12z, Much better then 06z

Oh good!  Although I feel that anything more than 4 inches is a win up here.  I don't have any real sense of storms like this which have the precip constricted on the nw side.  With this track I would've though we could get a nice deformation band somewhere up here.  I guess like usual the 700 track is important.  Baroclinic zone said the GFS I think had it going PVD to Bos....great for Ray but no for us.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Oh good!  Although I feel that anything more than 4 inches is a win up here.  I don't have any real sense of storms like this which have the precip constricted on the nw side.  With this track I would've though we could get a nice deformation band somewhere up here.  I guess like usual the 700 track is important.  Baroclinic zone said the GFS I think had it going PVD to Bos....great for Ray but no for us.

 

Once it moved off the coast it was more strung out like 06z, It did get a little more precip back NW though but it was weaker and ended up about the same as 06z, FWIW and that is not much, Should start to get close to the RGEM range, Maybe just outside but will have a general idea at 12z where it is down south along the coast

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