Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[Ginx snewx]

No they're not

Bufkit is 1.3 for IJD but soundings in my hood posted indicate snow but it's a moot point

[mahk_webstah]

HPC 4 8 and 12 probs not too bad.  Ray quite near the small low prob or 12+

[Ginx snewx]

Looking at BUFKIT for IJD you're basically above freezing from 800 to 950 during the meat of the storm. It cools below 0c at 00z through the column but after 00z only an additional 0.20" of liquid falls.

So yes, you do flip to snow but a lot of that is rain beforehand.

I am east of IJD I agree Bufkit looks retched for IJD

[Ginx snewx]

Hi res Euro which some prefer is colder. Surprised that wasn't mentioned

[CT Rain]

I am east of IJD I agree Bufkit looks retched for IJD

 

Well I don't think there will be a huge difference between IJD and Moosup looking at the high res maps. The Euro is warmer anyway.

 

What I do think is that someone is going to get pasted by this thing with a really exciting short-duration, high impact cement storm. I just have no idea where that will be. 

[CT Rain]

Hi res Euro which some prefer is colder. Surprised that wasn't mentioned

 

Doesn't look colder to me. 

[Damage In Tolland]

One of Hanrahan's buddies on another station

Gil Simmons NEWS8 CT ‏@gilsimmons  54m

54 minutes ago

Some early #snow thoughts on Saturday in #connecticut:

[512high]

Quick question, local radio saying 1-3" sat. am, then another possible 1-3" at night...is there a posible "lull"? unless just bad reporting by them...i "thought" this was a quick mover? thanks ahead of time

[NECT]

I am east of IJD I agree Bufkit looks retched for IJD

IJD tends to be a snow hole - they seem to torch more than some surround areas.

[ORH_wxman]

Quick question, local radio saying 1-3" sat. am, then another possible 1-3" at night...is there a posible "lull"? unless just bad reporting by them...i "thought" this was a quick mover? thanks ahead of time

 

Probably just breaking up the forecast period...it's not uncommon in forecasts to say "Today, snow developing, 1-3" accumulation. Tonight, snow, 1-3 additional accumulation" or something like that. They might have worded it poorly if they meant some mixing in the afternoon before flipping back to snow.

[weathafella]

I think Wills point about pl to the pike is good looking at lower level temps. Admittedly I only was focused on mby and the 925 0 line and noting the low level cold I thought that made sense. Of course slight change can make the difference between an ISO bomb and a rainstorm.

[ORH_wxman]

I think Wills point about pl to the pike is good looking at lower level temps. Admittedly I only was focused on mby and the 925 0 line and noting the low level cold I thought that made sense. Of course slight change can make the difference between an ISO bomb and a rainstorm.

 

 

Might even a narrow zone of ZR too.

 

Of course, if this comes in a bit more dynamic, then it's moot.

[CT Rain]

I think Wills point about pl to the pike is good looking at lower level temps. Admittedly I only was focused on mby and the 925 0 line and noting the low level cold I thought that made sense. Of course slight change can make the difference between an ISO bomb and a rainstorm.

 

Yup. It's sooooo borderline. I think someone gets a really good storm out of this but I also think there will be some very very disappointed come Saturday night. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

You really want this this to close off in the ML's to keep from "torching" the atmosphere ahead of this thing.  06z GFS was about as good a solution you'll want to see to do this.  See if that can occur sooner.

[Ginx snewx]

IJD tends to be a snow hole - they seem to torch more than some surround areas.

it's more about where the best intense lift sets up, why I said it's a moot point but yea as you know from living out here IJD to the NE hills is like HFD to Torrington. This storm will come down to dynamics, lift. Bufkit, soundings are fine to look at but reality will be different. Somebody will get smoked I like your spot to ORH as a guess.

[CT Rain]

it's more about where the best intense lift sets up, why I said it's a moot point but yea as you know from living out here IJD to the NE hills is like HFD to Torrington. This storm will come down to dynamics, lift. Bufkit, soundings are fine to look at but reality will be different. Somebody will get smoked I like your spot to ORH as a guess.

 

Exactly. Models show most areas are a bit too warm for snow. Of course we know that if we get a narrow zone of intense lift we flip over quickly - and we could even get a lot of snow. Just depends on where that zone is and right now I don't know. Should be a fun and exciting storm to watch evolve but I don't think it will wind up being a good storm for most of us - only some of us. 

[correnjim1]

So the rains of winter 2014-15 continue

[ORH_wxman]

So the rains of winter 2014-15 continue

 

Lets keep the hyperbole to a minimum in the storm thread.

[Damage In Tolland]

So the rains of winter 2014-15 continue

Did you read the AFD from BOX or look at any modeling?

[CT Rain]

Did you read the AFD from BOX or look at any modeling?

 

Hayden has been knocking it out of the park with this midnight forecasts/AFDs

[NECT]

it's more about where the best intense lift sets up, why I said it's a moot point but yea as you know from living out here IJD to the NE hills is like HFD to Torrington. This storm will come down to dynamics, lift. Bufkit, soundings are fine to look at but reality will be different. Somebody will get smoked I like your spot to ORH as a guess.

Hope you guess correctly.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Hayden has been knocking it out of the park with this midnight forecasts/AFDs

So people can read it, here it is.

 

 

 

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH

ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO

INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST. IN FACT...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

SHOULD BECOME A BOMB AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND CROSSES

SOMEWHERE NEAR THE BENCHMARK SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME

DISCREPANCY ON WHETHER THE STORM TRACKS A BIT INSIDE OR OUTSIDE THE

BENCHMARK...WHICH WILL HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON SPECIFIC OUTCOMES.

THIS REMAIN A VERY DIFFICULT AND LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE MAIN

ISSUE IS THAT WE DO NOT HAVE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN

CANADA...INSTEAD WE HAVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THEREFORE...THERMAL

PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINAL BETWEEN RAIN AND HEAVY WET SNOW. THE

OTHER PROBLEM IS THAT WITHOUT THE HIGH PRESSURE

SYSTEM...BAROCLINICITY IS LESS THAN WE OFTEN SEE IN MANY WINTER

STORM/S. THAT MEANS THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER QPF MIGHT

BE MORE LIMITED THEN WE TYPICALLY SEE FOR THE GIVEN

TRACK...ESPECIALLY WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH NOT MUCH

DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING.

1) RISK FOR NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW

THERE IS THE RISK FOR A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THE MOST LIKELY

AREA IS NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-95 INTO THE WORCESTER HILLS AND

EASTERN CT. IT WILL PROBABLY BE TOO WARM FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW

FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...EVEN THE

SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AS STORM EXPLODES AND

COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. OF COURSE...THE TRACK IS NOT SET

IN STONE SO RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW BAND STILL SUBJECT TO SHIFT EAST OR

WEST.

2) TIMING OF PRECIPITATION/PTYPE:

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING FROM

SOUTH TO NORTH. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL FROM SAT

AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END

THEREAFTER AS STORM IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE. PTYPE STILL VERY

DIFFICULT...BUT RIGHT NOW LOOKING AT BULK OF PRECIP TO BE SNOW NEAR

AND NORTHWEST OF I-95 AND RAIN SOUTHEAST OF THAT REGION.

EVEN AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I-95 SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR

WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM SAT EVENING.

3) STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS:

LOW PRESSURE WILL UNDERGO BOMBOGENESIS AS IT TRACKS NEAR THE

BENCHMARK SATURDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM DROPS 40 MB IN 24 HOURS AS

IT WILL BE A SUB 970 MB ONCE IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE BENCHMARK. IF

WE HAD A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...WE

PROBABLY WOULD BE TALKING ABOUT NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS

ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...THAT IS MISSING IN THIS CASE WHICH WILL

LIMIT WIND POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS...RAPID PRESSURE FALLS WILL

PROBABLY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40

TO 55 MPH ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Hayden has been knocking it out of the park with this midnight forecasts/AFDs

Hes a really good met. I just hope this works out for more than 4 posters here

[powderfreak]

Looks good for a quick moving 6-12" storm for those that are all snow. Pretty much as AWT, climo would eventually catch up and it'll start to snow down there. This is just the start for you guys too.

[weathafella]

1/21/78 comes to mind with this system. Was similar thermally.

[CoastalWx]

I mentioned the baroclinicity thing two days ago when discussing how this was a thread the needle. Lows near Montreal usually indicate two things. Sh*tty thermal profiles and a progressive pattern. It's becoming clearer this won't miss, so we deal with lousy thermal profiles and a more compact precip shield.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I mentioned the baroclinicity thing two days ago when discussing how this was a thread the needle. Lows near Montreal usually indicate two things. Sh*tty thermal profiles and a progressive pattern. It's becoming clearer this won't miss, so we deal with lousy thermal profiles and a more compact precip shield.

You should add a "Regards" to end your posts.

[friedmators]

Sorry if this was already answered, but did the Euro ensembles have much spread?

[Damage In Tolland]

There was a storm in January of either 2001-2003 time frame. I remember it was supposed to be all snow. Even up to the night before. That morning Drag was on the desk and wrote the AFD and it ended up warming enough to be an ice storm for NCT and the snow was confined to north of pike. Drag ended up going ice storm warning here and was correct. I still remember the AFD he wrote. It was a Saturday storm. I wonder in anyone recalls the date?

[CT Rain]

Sorry if this was already answered, but did the Euro ensembles have much spread?

 

Not really. Very tight clustering at 00z near or just inside of the benchmark.