Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[SR Airglow]

GGEM likes metro boston down to interior SE mass for highest totals. 6-10"

Starting to think 12" will be the exception rather than the rule, if this does happen.

Reading SR post above,euro distribution does not sound all that different from the GGEM

Yeah, it's almost identical actually, perhaps an inch or two higher in spots.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm glad they fixed the GFS.

[N. OF PIKE]

GGEM likes metro boston down to interior SE mass for highest totals. 6-10"

Starting to think 12" will be the exception rather than the rule, if this does happen.

Reading SR post above,euro distribution does not sound all that different from the GGEM

Just curious if you were actually thinking otherwise before 0z runs?

[The 4 Seasons]

Looking at the 00Z run tonight versus 00z run last night the QPF over CT is nearly identical. This run was just a little bit warmer. It was not that bad of a run honestly and at least it didn't jump east, if anything ticked west. I don't know why some in the NYC forums saying the GFS won.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Yeah, it's almost identical actually, perhaps an inch or two higher in spots.

Not a bad look for eastern folks.

Bar harbor NE crushed on that run.

It really is such a small strip of good snows considering storm size. The cutoff from haves and have nots could be very short

[The 4 Seasons]

SR: do you plan on making an accumulation map tomorrow? Your website is good btw, I enjoy reading the blogs.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just curious if you were actually thinking otherwise before 0z runs?

Not really actually lol. Just kind of becoming more obvious that is likely around the ceiling.

[codfishsnowman]

kudos to all the mets who harped on the precip issues on the nw side of this thing.......cuts and issues across the board back this way and sw of here, even with the so called "preferred" track....

[SR Airglow]

SR: do you plan on making an accumulation map tomorrow? Your website is good btw, I enjoy reading the blogs.

Unless this shifts out of the picture entirely on the 12z runs, it should be posted by 6-7 PM. And thanks! Glad to know someone likes it

[SR Airglow]

Looking at the 00Z run tonight versus 00z run last night the QPF over CT is nearly identical. This run was just a little bit warmer. It was not that bad of a run honestly and at least it didn't jump east, if anything ticked west. I don't know why some in the NYC forums saying the GFS won.

That's all you need to know. A hotbed of irrational posters over there.

 

My first thoughts would be 3-6" for much of CT. 2-4" in the NW corner and perhaps in the SE corner as well. Definitely mixing issues south coast and perhaps even all the way north to BDL as well, although I do think the EURO is overdone in that regard. As far as MA goes, anyone west of the MA/CT border would be 2-4/3-5, 3-6 east with inside 495 being 4-8 and inside 128 6-10(Both of these zones could have mixing issues), drag those south as well to PVD's lat. Towards the south coast, cape and islands, primarily rain with perhaps a couple inches of snow on the back end. 

 

Basically, something similar to the GGEM but an inch or so snowier across the board.

[CT Valley Snowman]

The Ensemble mean looks good. Actually more snow than the op. In western areas. The individual members look clustered just inside the bm. There was somewhat of a warmer at first and drier theme on some of the members compared to yesterday's almost perfect solution. Still some big hits in there as well. The Op looked more elongated with the low and definitely picked up on the initial boundary layer issues as well as the compact and more east weighted component of the qpf fields in comparison to other storms with a similar track and intensity.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well nice to not see a SE trend Still looks like best snows run from west of 495 down to NYC

[powderfreak]

Well nice to not see a SE trend Still looks like best snows run from west of 495 down to NYC

It looks fine right into BOS on a lot of the stuff I'm seeing this morning. 925mb stays below freezing on the EURO and winds come from the north pretty quickly in the BL.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Nice to see the 6Z Gfs coming aboard.

[ineedsnow]

Yup starting to look alot better maybe by 12z it will get a clue lol

Nice to see the 6Z Gfs coming aboard.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Still a very sharp cut-off near Mitch and Hippy. .50 inch total precip line right over me.

[ineedsnow]

Ya but that was a huge shift and the early week storm looks great

Still a very sharp cut-off near Mitch and Hippy. .50 inch total precip line right over me.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Ya but that was a huge shift and the early week storm looks great

Yes. I will be interested to see if the Euro goes back to a more nuclear option with more impressive comma head and CCB.Regardless It should be a high end advisory or warning event for many outside of possibly the Berks who could be too far removed and possibly far SE areas if there is too much taint.

[Damage In Tolland]

It looks fine right into BOS on a lot of the stuff I'm seeing this morning. 925mb stays below freezing on the EURO and winds come from the north pretty quickly in the BL.

Frank and BOX think BOS to PVD is rain

[Randy4Confluence]

Man what back to back shellacking for the Merrimac Valley region on the 6z gfs! Monday storm almost as fun as the first. That's a cold storm on Monday.

[Lava Rock]

Nothing up here except for pwm sothward ho hum. Never had my hopes up.

[weathafella]

Frank and BOX think BOS to PVD is rain

I don't see how it is avoided unless it wraps up big time and tracks over and not west of the bm. Euro and cmc have it inside the bm while gfs is east of that. I think you may well get buried. I expect a plowable snow but heavy rain at the height.

[dendrite]

Nothing up here except for pwm sothward ho hum. Never had my hopes up.

It's not looking great, but EPS mean is still pretty wet so there's still some spread. 0.50" from about me to up toward you/dryslot. Of course it could just be a few weenie outliers.

[CoastalWx]

EC ensembles are pretty warm. 0C at 850 gets up to TOL-BOS. Wish this stupid system would turn into a POS and make way for next week.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Not looking great out this way but not terrible either. Pretty much as I expected

[CT Valley Snowman]

I don't see how it is avoided unless it wraps up big time and tracks over and not west of the bm. Euro and cmc have it inside the bm while gfs is east of that. I think you may well get buried. I expect a plowable snow but heavy rain at the height.[/quote

I would think the opposite, Rain and than heavy snow at the height for you. Maybe I'm wrong.

[CT Valley Snowman]

EC ensembles are pretty warm. 0C at 850 gets up to TOL-BOS. Wish this stupid system would turn into a POS and make way for next week.

At the beginning but than collapses SE right?

[CoastalWx]

At the beginning but than collapses SE right?

 

Yeah. Next week is so much more classic though for SNE.  Would rather have a long duration big event than this thing which may only dump in a narrow zone.

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't see how it is avoided unless it wraps up big time and tracks over and not west of the bm. Euro and cmc have it inside the bm while gfs is east of that. I think you may well get buried. I expect a plowable snow but heavy rain at the height.

As of now I think 4-8 lolli 10 from Gay to ORH to North of NYC..a nice storm overall. I'm really hopping you guys are cold enough out there.

[CoastalWx]

GFS is beautiful next week. Wish this thing would poof.