Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[The 4 Seasons]

Well looks like the nam is east at 69 and not as strong.

[HoarfrostHubb]

No...I said we were done through at least Jan twenty-something...I forget the exact date.

i cancelled the clipper, I know that.

 

I won't lie, though.....my confidence on the end of Jan was wavering.

 

Lets verify this storm, first.

I def am gunshy about this slipping east...

[dryslot]

Weaker it will track east, Stronger it will be west, Also was a hair slower this run

[BlizzardHunter]

Its extremely tough especially after moving from just south of Buffalo,NY where the town I just moved from already has had over 150" this season...

That's totally insane! What a place you picked to move to! You're in the "snow hole" of new england. SE CT/SW RI is absolutely terrible for snow. Even Narragansett a few miles inland gets more snow since it catches more easterly storms that affect the cape. When you finally do get a storm, it will really drive you insane when points just north of you(north kingstown points north in RI) get snow and you end up turning to ice/mix crap. It's really really hard to get a all snow in that area. Huge difference between southern and northern half of RI

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

it just cut off the qpf to the nw, but track is similar. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Down east Maine gets grazed at 75-81.

[Randy4Confluence]

I think a bump SE tonight. I hope it hangs on for our ESNE folks but not optimistic above the NH border. This is a situation where the NW move may've peaked at 12Z and now we shift east. That low over Canada is going to do it.

Ah, the "kicker" low. That would mean a huge victory for the GFS.

[HoarfrostHubb]

A bit late, but the BOX AFD seems pretty meh

[BlizzardHunter]

Ah, the "kicker" low. That would mean a huge victory for the GFS.

Is this due to the upgrade they did? Is it a better model now?

[dryslot]

Most of the precip was on the NE side

[ORH_wxman]

Guys I wouldn't take anything out of the 00z NAM.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Is this due to the upgrade they did? Is it a better model now?

So far the jury is still out but from what it have read it has actually been worse in some ways

[mahk_webstah]

Ah, the "kicker" low. That would mean a huge victory for the GFS.

Just keep in mind that I don't know what the hell I'm talking about.

[weathafella]

Ah, the "kicker" low. That would mean a huge victory for the GFS.

Not gonna happen. And besides you're using the nam beyond 2 hrs as proof? Seriously do you think cmc, euro, GEFS, eps, etc are out to lunch but the nam and gfs are leading the way?

[dryslot]

Nam is not very useful yet, The GFS, Is the one that needs to make a move here i would think at 0z, But even if it does not, Probably take that as a grain of salt as well as its late to the party and seems to have got worse since the upgrade, Really struggling with these coastal systems

[40/70 Benchmark]

Guys I wouldn't take anything out of the 00z NAM.

I was just about to say that.

Not to say it won't tick east, but I do not glean anything from that model, at this range.

[Bostonseminole]

Guys I wouldn't take anything out of the 00z NAM.

some never learn

[Randy4Confluence]

I think a bump SE tonight. I hope it hangs on for our ESNE folks but not optimistic above the NH border. This is a situation where the NW move may've peaked at 12Z and now we shift east. That low over Canada is going to do it.

The Weather Channel, FWIW, just updated me to rain and snow and I'm near theNH border.

[Bostonseminole]

I was just about to say that.

Not to say it won't tick east, but I do not glean anything from that model, at this range.

Ray you sticking around for GFS/GGEM? will be fun to have everyone around, it has been a boring winter.

[The 4 Seasons]

A bit late, but the BOX AFD seems pretty meh

 

 

BOX AFD is much more wintry (snowier) than OKX is alluding to. BOX is stating that the max snowfall still looks somewhere near the i95 corridor or just a tad NW, while OKX is introducing rain/freezing rain/sleet for Saturday up through interior CT and Hudson valley and "will begin to down play the snow potential"

[HoarfrostHubb]

The Weather Channel, FWIW, just updated me to rain and snow and I'm near theNH border.

Oh dear...you might want to forget you have TWC. They are pretty useless for this kind of thing

[AlaskaETC]

Not gonna happen. And besides you're using the nam beyond 2 hrs as proof? Seriously do you think cmc, euro, GEFS, eps, etc are out to lunch but the nam and gfs are leading the way?

Looks like a trend, but we'll see. Hopefully you guys can cash either way.

[weathafella]

The Weather Channel, FWIW, just updated me to rain and snow and I'm near theNH border.

What happened to you?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ray you sticking around for GFS/GGEM? will be fun to have everyone around, it has been a boring winter.

Man, I shouldn't, but I'm a weak man.

[weathafella]

Looks like a trend, but we'll see. Hopefully you guys can cash either way.

How is it a trend?

[HoarfrostHubb]

What happened to you?

I do occasionally watch TWC if there is a tornado outbreak or something.

Otherwise I forget it exists

[AlaskaETC]

How is it a trend?

At least with precipitation becoming less starting with the 12z GFS, rudimentary observation though.

[TalcottWx]

lol. no mercy.

Seems awfully uncalled for. You guys have done nothing but root us on for snow even when you were ripping dendrites.

[40/70 Benchmark]

At least with precipitation becoming less starting with the 12z GFS, rudimentary observation though.

You're a rudimentary

[Randy4Confluence]

Not gonna happen. And besides you're using the nam beyond 2 hrs as proof? Seriously do you think cmc, euro, GEFS, eps, etc are out to lunch but the nam and gfs are leading the way?

Nah not predicting anything. Notice i said "would" not is. I would lean towards the cmc, euro, and Gefs right now.