Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[ineedsnow]

Figured I would start a thread and try to bring some good juju. My forecast went from partly cloudy to a 70 percent chance of snow! Most models show a rapidly deepening low close enough to give us some good snow!

[ineedsnow]

6z gfs is pretty far east compared to 0z

[jamesnichols89]

I wouldn't worry about the 6z GFS.

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems like the dreaded east trend has started this morning

[ineedsnow]

Its the gfs and its been funky since the upgrade. If it is still east at 12z then maybe

Seems like the dreaded east trend has started this morning

[CT Valley Snowman]

A trend or just a bump in the road?

[Damage In Tolland]

Its the gfs and its been funky since the upgrade. If it is still east at 12z then maybe

 

There's still 3 days for the seasonal pattern to rear it's ugly head

[CoastalWx]

I wouldn't sweat it too much right now seeing how we saw jumps with the clipper at this time. EC ensembles look pretty good near the BM right now, even the 6z GEFS look better than the op. Obviously the time left still is at play, as we have said this is a thread the needle all along.

[Ginx snewx]

There's still 3 days for the seasonal pattern to rear it's ugly head

it's the lack of oxygen friends the elevation,has to be

[Damage In Tolland]

it's the lack of oxygen friends the elevation,has to be

A thread the weenie kind of storm..Hang your hat on that . this is s till a super longshot. 00z Friday..if it's still there..ok then we have a storm..Plenty of time for this to slip east ..kicker behind it..no blocking. etc etc

[CT Valley Snowman]

The problem is there is only about 75 miles separating a big hit from almost nothing. We're living on the edge . Fully expecting a YouTube if it wasn't so early.

[Damage In Tolland]

The problem is there is only about 75 miles separating a big hit from almost nothing. We're living on the edge .

If we had even had 1 coastal snowstorm hit us this winter...you'd feel much better about our chances..but the way the pattern has proven it doesn't want to snow based on said reasons..it's just not a wise idea to buy into this yet

[moneypitmike]

I've resigned myself a few weeks ago that the winter was a dud.  I hope the central/eastern/southern areas can get snows from this--06gfs notwithstanding.

 

Should this come in 100 miles west, I'd be thrilled.  But, if not, I still have my glacier and cool temps to remind me that it's still winter..

[Bostonseminole]

Euro on board not sure why anyone would consider the Gfs,

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Baroclinic Zone]

Could be the 1st time this season the thought of snow peaks my interest.  See what 12z today brings.

Personal thougths on the current models.

00z Op Euro may be a hair too amped but I would not discount the solution and its not that much different that the GFS/GGEM.

00z GFS was about as perfect a track for the SE MA folks looking for a substantial snowstorm

00z GGEM was a similar track to the GFS and huge hit.

 

00z Euro/GFS Ensm both have a track just outside the BM.

Tough to argue against them right now

 

06z Op GFS looks out of sync with the 00z OP/ENSM and 06 Ensm runs so I would discount it at this time until we see what the 12z run does today. 

 

Still plenty of time for the track to adjust on this one.  I don't a westward track being a threat given the progressive nature of the overall hemispheric pattern as well as the upstream kicker that will be knocking on it's heel over the GL.

 

A track inside the BM could still happen and that would bring a dose of rains to the SE MA area and CC before a transitions to snow with the heaviest snow further inland along the 1-495 belt.

 

This storm will have a tight baroclinic zone on the west side of the track due to the retreating high preceding the storm and the progressiveness of the storm.  There will likely be quite a few in here on the outside looking in on this storm.

 

Peace out....

[JC-CT]

I wouldn't sweat it too much right now seeing how we saw jumps with the clipper at this time. EC ensembles look pretty good near the BM right now, even the 6z GEFS look better than the op. Obviously the time left still is at play, as we have said this is a thread the needle all along.

6z gefs were slightly se of 0z. I thought they looked more like the GFS op than the euro products. But the Euro picked this one up first, which makes me think it is one of those systems it will have a better handle on from start to finish.

Who knows though. Not huge differences between them.

[JC-CT]

There's still 3 days for the seasonal pattern to rear it's ugly head

Just like the last one went east with the GFS...

[Bostonseminole]

6z gefs were slightly se of 0z. I thought they looked more like the GFS op than the euro products. But the Euro picked this one up first, which makes me think it is one of those systems it will have a better handle on from start to finish.

Who knows though. Not huge differences between them.

 

I think everyone knows the biggest caution flag is east.. hopefully we can eek out a 4-6" I'm not expecting a 12"+

[JC-CT]

I think everyone knows the biggest caution flag is east..

There have been some stated concerns from knowledgeable sources about the marginal airmass as well.

[Ginx snewx]

The thread the needle mantra is weird. either its close enough for a good snow storm or its too far east, what needle is that

[Bostonseminole]

There have been some stated concerns from knowledgeable sources about the marginal airmass as well.

true..the airmass is not as good as 2nd storm.. anyway, trying out the WB 7 day trial.. was waiting for an active period to see if I like it better than the amwx model page.

[JC-CT]

The thread the needle mantra is weird. either its close enough for a good snow storm or its too far east, what needle is that

I concur. It is a freakin bomb, could probably track over Bob's fanny and you and I would still get crushed by the CCB.

[JC-CT]

I wish the NAM was about 100 miles NW of where it actually is right now though, because that's the ultimate solution I want lol.

[Baroclinic Zone]

The thread the needle mantra is weird. either its close enough for a good snow storm or its too far east, what needle is that

 

It has a tight baroclinic zone with a narrow band of precip to the west of the track.  That's the needle threader.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The western edge will have a pretty tight shutoff as modeled. As it is now I'm a bit on the outside looking in (a few inches would be fine).

 

Smoking cirrus might be in the cards for my area N and W

 

Bob, you are interested in this one?  lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

The western edge will have a pretty tight shutoff as modeled. As it is now I'm a bit on the outside looking in (a few inches would be fine).

 

Smoking cirrus might be in the cards for my area N and W

 

Bob, you are interested in this one?  lol

About 25% invested scientifically, and 0% emotionally.

[Ginx snewx]

It has a tight baroclinic zone with a narrow band of precip to the west of the track.  That's the needle threader.

[Baroclinic Zone]

 

It has a tight baroclinic zone with a narrow band of precip to the west of the track.  That's the needle threader.

 

That's tight.  Go look at other BM track storms.  Many have ML deformation bands over W MA and up in VT, NH, ME.

[CoastalWx]

How is it not a thread the needle. It's got a very narrow room for error.

[ORH_wxman]

The thread the needle mantra is weird. either its close enough for a good snow storm or its too far east, what needle is that

Some storms are "forced" into a good spot when you have a block or good confluence north. You can get a track 200 miles wide to our south but by the time it reaches our area it's going to be snow regardless.

This is a system with no blocking in place and a relatively compact precip shield. So we have to be more precise than normal. The airmass isnt amazing either which narrows the wiggle room too. It's not a horrible airmass but there's some tightroping.