John1122 Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 4k NAM 60 hr clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS Clown through the same frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 All the models seem to show the deform band giving some decent snow to a good portion of the area Friday night into Saturday. Normally wouldn't be exceptional but for many it may likely still be the most snow they've gotten this season, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 All the models seem to show the deform band giving some decent snow to a good portion of the area Friday night into Saturday. Normally wouldn't be exceptional but for many it may likely still be the most snow they've gotten this season,In 4 years, perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm really hoping we get some surprises but modeling is not looking too great for more than a dusting across the area, with the exception of higher elevation areas. The 12z RGEM is a tad more optimistic with some 2 inch splotches. Through 48 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm really hoping we get some surprises but modeling is not looking too great for more than a dusting across the area, with the exception of higher elevation areas. The 12z RGEM is a tad more optimistic with some 2 inch splotches. Through 48 hours: I think that is what may make this storm fun, is the potential for surprises. Without a strong enough cold high to the north to funnel in cold air we have to rely on the storm dynamics, and marginal diurnal temps to really get anything. Though I can remember a few times having storms in this similar type of position and forecasts as rain then within the Low rounding the bend heading NE, that it strengthened more rapidly than generally modeled or expected, and the storm pulling just enough marginal cold air down to the surface to get heavy wet snow. I think at least for East Tennessee that is where we are, we have to hope for that scenario, but those surprises/storms are rare in my years following storms. My hopes for this winter are still pinned on end of the month beginning of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The SREF plumes for Knoxville and KTRI aren't too bad right now: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20150122&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=TRI&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=36.12429084078261&mLON=-81.99751724750399&mTYP=roadmap http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150122&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=TYS&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=36.12429084078261&mLON=-81.99751724750399&mTYP=roadmap And that doesn't include the clipper. Meteograms aren't bad either, so far. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=ktys&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=ktri&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on Both links are easy to get to BNA or Hattachooga if you want those values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Friday looks warmer everywhere, but hope springs eternal Friday night and Saturday morning east. I'm looking for all rain Friday except northwest Tennessee into Middle Kentucky where snow mix in is probable. It is a common pattern when the Tennessee Valley is slightly too warm. I believe the models have Friday handled quite well. After the main slug Friday, a weak deformation zone might come across Friday night. Couple models forecast a separate weak comma head early Saturday morning. Currently the deformation zone is in central Texas and the comma head is in New Mexico as a separate piece of energy. Models are really struggling with the evolution of both. Some have the deformation zone falling apart over the Mid-South and the comma head shearing out. Others hold both. Third scenario is the deformation zone fizzling, but the comma head finding new life over the Valley; perhaps the latter is when the Carolina trough starts to strengthen. In all cases surface is above freezing if snow falls. Local offices Memphis, Nashville and Morristown have good forecast discussions. Upper Plateau to Tri Cities could see light sticking snow late Friday night into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wow, 18z GFS looks decent for the Friday/Saturday storm considering the circumstances. Also, the it shows the clipper working out quite well for TRI and especially for our friends in SW VA! I think lots of people would be happy to see it play out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Have to like the looks of that if you're in SW Virginia and Eastern Ky..Hopefully the GFS is finally coming around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Have to like the looks of that if you're in SW Virginia and Eastern Ky..Hopefully the GFS is finally coming around.. Shoot yeah, I hope you cash in buddy. I just noticed the 18z GFS meteogram shows 5.5 inches for TYS around 6z Saturday lol. Of course that probably Cobbs out at about zero but it's still funny to see. If the temps were any more marginal they'd have to release the prog on ruled loose leaf notebook paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS is back to pretty good snow totals from the comma/deform on the back side of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS is back to pretty good snow totals from the comma/deform on the back side of this. To bad the ratios are not better,gonna take a chunk out of that,but at least we see sn..lol..The clipper had more juice but it's warm,something to watch anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm not feeling any accumulation for the Valley (Chatty, TYS, TRI). Just too warm for the main slug of moisture and probably too warm for the deform band too. Just sad to waste the perfect track with crappy temp profiles. Jax and John I hope y'all can cash in. I think y'all have the potential for a few inches with the back edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm not feeling any accumulation for the Valley (Chatty, TYS, TRI). Just too warm for the main slug of moisture and probably too warm for the deform band too. Just sad to waste the perfect track with crappy temp profiles. Jax and John I hope y'all can cash in. I think y'all have the potential for a few inches with the back edge. It depends on how heavy the deformation band is. I wouldn't be surprised if a dusting to a half inch happened in the valley just due to moderate snow falling. Or it could be wishful thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Jax if your awake you might want to look out your window soon! Radar shows the northern edge of precip as snow. I would post a picture but the forum won't let me for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It depends on how heavy the deformation band is. I wouldn't be surprised if a dusting to a half inch happened in the valley just due to moderate snow falling. Or it could be wishful thinking. Yeah it could happen and be heavy enough for a slushy inch or so. I think the GFS supports that more than the NAM. The GFS is has been more robust today with the back edge than the NAM. Which is weird since normally it is the NAM over doing things. We could see some sleet or snow with the leading edge here in a couple hours. Radar looks promising for a brief shot for folks in middle TN. At least we finally have something to follow. This winter has been so bad that we haven't even got the chance to get hosed yet. (Lucy and the football) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Clipper is fairly healthy on the 18z GFS, snow maps show widespread 1 to 2 inches but surface temps are a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Clipper is fairly healthy on the 18z GFS, snow maps show widespread 1 to 2 inches but surface temps are a concern. Hard to tell,HRRR shows it moving out faster by the looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Still on going by the looks in the east,but remember these are 10:1 ratios,not sure if it will meet that especially the further W you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 HRR looks like it clears out of Nashville by around midnight,radar isnt impressive at all right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 HRR looks like it clears out of Nashville by around midnight,radar isnt impressive at all right now The band is gathering some and heading your way Jax! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The band is gathering some and heading your way Jax! Yeah radar and HRRR looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 Pretty robust band has set up, MRX now says they aren't changing the advisory but up to 2 inches are possible in the Central Valley and points North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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