powderfreak Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Oh for sure transient blocks can happen. My point is this storm doesn't change my opinion. If it were 50 miles east, I bet some wouldn't feel as euphoric. We absolutely cannot have the Pacific crap the bed. Well without the negative NAO, if there is no transient block you end up with these type of solutions like the day 9 GGEM... we've seen a few of these so far this season that run right over New England if nothing can force them east. The GGEM loves to wrap up these bombs, I'm not saying this is anywhere close to happening, just showing it as an example of what the lack of a -NAO in the means can cause if the transient blocks aren't timed right. You can get rainers to Quebec while upstate NY gets bombed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro looks like it's going to come in flat as a pancake for the late Sunday or early Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro looks like it's going to come in flat as a pancake for the late Sunday or early Monday event. Yeah it toally misses any phasing with the southwest US energy...the clipper nuking out to our northeast also doesn't help it amplify either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Same thing happened with the last 2 storms. The worry was stronger first would squash second. We know how that turned out. Same deal applies here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Is it plausible both could be advisory type events? Or is it strictly one or the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Oh for sure transient blocks can happen. My point is this storm doesn't change my opinion. If it were 50 miles east, I bet some wouldn't feel as euphoric. We absolutely cannot have the Pacific crap the bed. That's what we have El Nino for...we're definitely developing a typical February +ENSO pattern with a +PNA and high-latitude blocking over Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Why does past equal future? Bad logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Why does past equal future? Bad logic. Why wouldn't same thing happen in same setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That's what we have El Nino for...we're definitely developing a typical February +ENSO pattern with a +PNA and high-latitude blocking over Alaska. Yeah I don't see anything bad. We just have to hope for a good Pacific. By the way, weeklies looked pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Same thing happened with the last 2 storms. The worry was stronger first would squash second. We know how that turned out. Same deal applies here That's exactly what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Why wouldn't same thing happen in same setup? It's not the same setup though...we're still in a similar pattern, but this past storm happened because a very vigorous and fast moving shortwave caught up to the our original storm that was trying to whiff wide right...remember that the original depiction of the storm before that happened was like Sunday night into Monday. Nuances in the shortwaves can't be ignored. That said, obviously Monday can still happen. We just need some southwest energy infused into it more than what is being depicted by most guidance sans the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Mentioned this in the other thread... The wild continuity shift(ing) among the models re the latter system is very suspiciously related to data sampling in the Pac. The oper. runs clearly show a loss of some ~ half the mechanic power of the S/W material as it's coming aboard over land on this 12z run, and when that much is lost when source/origin is in the shadowy Pacific it's caveat emptor to the nth degree.. Buyer beware! NCEP hinted in their Ex range discussion as well, mentioning that said won't relay until later Friday so there's likely to be some bouncing around in the models until that happens. The 12z GGEM agrees with the 00z GFS (for all intents and purpose...) and the Euro has been wavering a lot on impact in general. I think the Friday system should hold most focus for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 15m 15 minutes ago GFS EC retreat on storm next week. EC ensembles, ukmet, jma dont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 The JMA never saw a storm threat it didn't like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 And the 12z euro ensembles aren't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro ensembles are still more amped than the OP for Monday, but verbatim more like a scraper...not like the GGEM/Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Euro ensembles are still more amped than the OP for Monday, but verbatim more like a scraper...not like the GGEM/Ukie Scraper is not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Congrats to all of us. Monday. GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Congrats to all of us. Monday. GFS. is this the same GFS I just saw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 is this the same GFS I just saw? Yes. 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 is this the same GFS I just saw? That map calculates snow ratios which are 15-20:1 for this event per their algorithm(Which I've found to be pretty accurate). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 is this the same GFS I just saw? 0z GFS is a moderate hit up here. Trended way better for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Temps are going to really cold during the storm if this occurs so the ratios will be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anthony, surface temps have zero to do with it. It's all about temp and RH within the snowgrowth region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM crushes the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM is a an OH Valley runner that redevelops into a Miller B before it can warm us in the mid-levels...would be a pretty big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GGEM is a an OH Valley runner that redevelops into a Miller B before it can warm us in the mid-levels...would be a pretty big event.that's pretty close to what I envision just colder further south. This storm has been on the radar for a long time. Gonna be juicy, a plaster paster for Pawtucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Is this turning into a repeat of last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Is this turning into a repeat of last week? No, much different setup, but still lots of potential. Certainly no ridiculous amounts like last time, but a solid 8-12/10-14" of heavy wet snow is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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