CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Snow pack does not force a storm south. Jan 1996 laughs at that myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Snow pack does not force a storm south. Jan 1996 laughs at that myth. I was waiting for you to post that. it certainly can force a storm track farther south. I've read articles on it. It doesn't always happen but it does happen especially with helping force a 2ndary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What model is generally more reliable (re: Sunday-Monday timeframe) this far out? And am I incorrect in reading the ensembles to show Euro and GEM have the storm to our south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What model is generally more reliable (re: Sunday-Monday timeframe) this far out? Easy Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 What model is generally more reliable (re: Sunday-Monday timeframe) this far out? And am I incorrect in reading the ensembles to show Euro and GEM have the storm to our south? Ensembles of the Euro/GFS/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Snow pack does not force a storm south. Jan 1996 laughs at that myth. You concerned with the rapid AO rose after next week that the cold pattern ends in the east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 ? I've got close to 2' on the ground and have had snow cover since Thanksgiving. We may not have been in the bullseye on this one but it has been a good winter so far.That doesn't mean it's terrible, or even subnormal west. All that implies is that I think the largest surplus of snowfall relative to average will be east by the end of the year. There is nothing subjective about that, it's an entirely objective postulation, thus how anyone "feels" about the character of their winter simply isn't germane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Argue colder. Fish are jumping and the snow numbers are high...Harv said as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That doesn't mean it's terrible, or even subnormal west. All that implies is that I think the largest surplus of snowfall relative to average will be east by the end of the year. There is nothing subjective about that, it's an entirely objective postulation, thus how anyone "feels" about the character of their winter simply isn't germane. I have little doubt that E NE will be king. He'll I can see you guys picking up another foot by Monday night. With 25" + I'm slightly under halfway to climo (55-60") imby at the end of January. It's just been done though nickels and dimes. I'm hoping Monday trends toward a warning criteria event out here, the last one was 8 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Cuts off energy in the southwest like you'd expect the euro to do. Lessens interaction and the northern stream just kind of snaps back and has trouble amplifying despite the -NAO look. Surface HP and confluence aloft over QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 That doesn't mean it's terrible, or even subnormal west. All that implies is that I think the largest surplus of snowfall relative to average will be east by the end of the year. There is nothing subjective about that, it's an entirely objective postulation, thus how anyone "feels" about the character of their winter simply isn't germane.Well naturally the lower snowfall areas in the East always have a better chance with 1 or 2 big storms. Relative to normal I've never seen anything more than 125% of normal, and nothing less than 75% of normal. Of course the places that have lower averages will easily be able to best it relative to normal.Even in the uber-historic winters in the mountains like 2000-2001 you might get to 140% of normal...BOS and PWM can do that with a favorable month of storms among a good season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 12z GGEM is a big hit for monday, Little warm though for SE areas of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Its going to be an eastern NE winter.....accept that, and be at peace with it.I think if you put" relative to average" in the original post there would have been no "mis understandings" But ya , not going there yet. If there was a -NAO in teleconnections i would be on board. Otherwise it sounds like a post from KEV based on post storm "euphoria" Im not sure the % above normal one needs to classify as a certain regions winter but heres to hoping for NE mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Just use standard devs or percentile and not percent above normal...standard dev normalizes things so percent above above average can be discarded as it is not homogenous for comparing areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Just use standard devs or percentile and not percent above normal...standard dev normalizes things so percent above above average can be discarded as it is not homogenous for comparing areas. Do know any any sites out of curiosity where you could find the SD for COOP or first order station snowfall? I'm not sure I've ever seen that listed on any climo stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Well for pure entertainment, I think most on here would be ok with the 12z run of the GGEM through Tuesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Do know any any sites out of curiosity where you could find the SD for COOP or first order station snowfall? I'm not sure I've ever seen that listed on any climo stats. I don't think so...WRCC has it but the data on there isn't all complete, though for the main sites it should be close. I usually just throw the seasonal totals into excel and then you can calculate all the percentiles and standard devs...pretty easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Just use standard devs or percentile and not percent above normal...standard dev normalizes things so percent above above average can be discarded as it is not homogenous for comparing areas. Great point. I think when all is said and done, snowfall for locales located in eastern NE will generally have a greater SD, and thus occupt higher percentiles than will area to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If we are gonna be way above avg relative to normal, I would like to see a -NAO and I don't see that. We are gonna have to rely on the Pacific which we all know can waver. We should bow down to the pacific because we pulled this storm out of our behinds in a way. Cohen isn't looking that hot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If we are gonna be way above avg relative to normal, I would like to see a -NAO and I don't see that. We are gonna have to rely on the Pacific which we all know can waver. We should bow down to the pacific because we pulled this storm out of our behinds in a way. Cohen isn't looking that hot right now.I have preached transient blocks are more information than NAO, just get us the cold and will have sh it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If we are gonna be way above avg relative to normal, I would like to see a -NAO and I don't see that. We are gonna have to rely on the Pacific which we all know can waver. We should bow down to the pacific because we pulled this storm out of our behinds in a way. Cohen isn't looking that hot right now. Yea, that is the one caveat....I keep saying that I ultimately expect it, but alas....no signs as of yet. I may end up wrong if that doesn't happen. So be it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I have preached transient blocks are more information than NAO, just get us the cold and will have sh it happens. I may be relying on this, but I'd rather get the negative polar fields....we'll see. Should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I have preached transient blocks are more information than NAO, just get us the cold and will have sh it happens. Oh for sure transient blocks can happen. My point is this storm doesn't change my opinion. If it were 50 miles east, I bet some wouldn't feel as euphoric. We absolutely cannot have the Pacific crap the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Again, feelings, emotons, win, lose....I wasn't speaking to any of that. I made a simple, scientific prediction, which as Will pointed out, could have certainly been articulated better. That is my fault. I didn't mean to start a pissing contest. I think you may be right, especially the second half of the winter. And sorry I have a pet peeve with the percent of normal thing just because of how it works relative to your average. I get just as bent when I see those seasonal forecasts for 150-200% of normal...which is pretty much all-time and then some.The first half of winter definitely seemed to favor W/NW New England to some extent. We had multiple paste bombs where it rained in the east, and a foot of Thanksgiving snow amongst countless 1-5" events. I've had three solid warning snows so far when last year to date had zero. But this is now a different pattern it seems so in the end you could very well be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Take the bitching to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I think you may be right, especially the second half of the winter. And sorry I have a pet peeve with the percent of normal thing just because of how it works relative to your average. I get just as bent when I see those seasonal forecasts for 150-200% of normal...which is pretty much all-time and then some. The first half of winter definitely seemed to favor W/NW New England to some extent. We had multiple paste bombs where it rained in the east, and a foot of Thanksgiving snow. I've had three solid warning snows so far when last year to date had zero. But this is now a different pattern it seems so in the end you could very well be right. Yea, my bad. Like I said, I didn't articulate that well....anything mathematical takes me out of my comfrot zone...numbers, terminology, whatever... I agree regaridng percent above normal....not a viable metric to use when comparing different areas......especially when climo for the respective areas is significantly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Take the bitching to the banter thread. That's for banter. We were arguing (maybe) about a discussion point in the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Oh for sure transient blocks can happen. My point is this storm doesn't change my opinion. If it were 50 miles east, I bet some wouldn't feel as euphoric. We absolutely cannot have the Pacific crap the bed. That's exactly how it feels in sw ct. 50 miles made a huge difference. So relying on well timed transient blocks, no thanks. We need a great pacific if we want to keep this going without a good Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Take the bitching to the banter thread. No one was b*tching....it was a discussion, which ultimately could proved pretty illuminating for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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