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Model Discussion for Late January into February


ORH_wxman

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The 18z gfs is nice. Would probably make a run at a mind boggling snowpack with that type of run

Since we are way behind out here I'll root for a scenario for Eastern weenies where Friday over performs and sun/mon is a plastering that then taints and freezes. Epic glacier, snow otg until May. This is how Kevin would want it to play out. lol.

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 Somewhere between the EURO and GGEM would be a perfect compromise... or essentially it would be the 00z GFS.

 

We still have no real block so it'll all depend on the resistence the system meets from confluence in southern Canada.  If the core of the cold backs a bit west and it tries to phase in, I don't see how worst case scenario is a SWFE. 

 

Can always play the card of snowpack causing the low to at least track along the coastline...but will be interesting to watch this evolution.  The deep snowpack is really only in an isolated area of eastern New England when you look at it on a global scale, so not sure how much that would play into it.  Though a lot of areas now have at least 6" on the ground from PA/NY state eastward.

 

My morning thoughts are the clipper will be very important.  If that absolutely bombs out, the next one goes south.  If the clipper is sort of a dud with no significantly strong backside push, the next one may walk right up the Ohio Valley.

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 Somewhere between the EURO and GGEM would be a perfect compromise... or essentially it would be the 00z GFS.

 

We still have no real block so it'll all depend on the resistence the system meets from confluence in southern Canada.  If the core of the cold backs a bit west and it tries to phase in, I don't see how worst case scenario is a SWFE. 

 

Can always play the card of snowpack causing the low to at least track along the coastline...but will be interesting to watch this evolution.  The deep snowpack is really only in an isolated area of eastern New England when you look at it on a global scale, so not sure how much that would play into it.  Though a lot of areas now have at least 6" on the ground from PA/NY state eastward.

 

My morning thoughts are the clipper will be very important.  If that absolutely bombs out, the next one goes south.  If the clipper is sort of a dud with no significantly strong backside push, the next one may walk right up the Ohio Valley.

 

 

Aside from Juno that would sort of fit this years profile.  A soaking cutter would suck since NNE ski areas are finally rocking again. 

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GFS/GGEM is a wintry mix and brings the low over SE areas..while the Euro delivers another 1-2 feet+ as it goes out south..Euro track probably the more likely of the two with the deep snowpack..things should get forced south

 

Accurate analysis as always. smh.

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I didn't melt down. What you said makes no sense. If the two streams phase it's gonna cut. Simple as that.

It makes plenty of sense Daniel. Deep snowpack has been scientifically shown to help keep low level cold in place and can force Storm tracks farther south than without it , as well as forcing a secondary to form . Not always.. But many times
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It makes plenty of sense Daniel. Deep snowpack has been scientifically shown to help keep low level cold in place and can force Storm tracks farther south than without it , as well as forcing a secondary to form . Not always.. But many times

To a degree you can be correct in that if the system is weak and the forcing weak, you can get a SLP to track further S.  I'm not so sure this one will be able to do that right now.  The s/w coming out of Canada looks like a potent one.

 

Let me add that I'm not arguing for or against a cutter just stating that it's a possibility.

I'll wait another couple days.

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