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Model Discussion for Late January into February


ORH_wxman

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tim kelly says early feb storm might be worse??? obviously diff outcomes for diff zones but it seems mimd boggling that there could be another monster...maybe that one buries someplace else in the east....furthermore its my experience he usually doesnt go gung ho on the storm threat unless the evidence is really overwhelming

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Yeah, I assume you guys are talking about the Saturday system...?

The NAVGEM, which by the way ...was the first to pick up on this Tuesday soire ... argues of a wind whipped 4-8" with a NJ Model low.

The Euro from 00z was onto that, and this 12z run is only slightly less appealing..but still gives perhaps 2-4 or 6" on the immediate coast.

Thing is, this system for Tuesday was too progressive until 90 hours out, ...so the question is: are we in a pattern where "too progressive" may be a mid range bias?

It's amazing to think, though, that we could very well be sitting on 15-30" across the basin then have that with no intervening melting...

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Yeah, I assume you guys are talking about the Saturday system...? The NAVGEM, which by the way ...was the first to pick up on this Tuesday soire ... argues of a wind whipped 4-8" with a NJ Model low. The Euro from 00z was onto that, and this 12z run is only slightly less appealing..but still gives perhaps 2-4 or 6" on the immediate coast. Thing is, this system for Tuesday was too progressive until 90 hours out, ...so the question is: are we in a pattern where "too progressive" may be a mid range bias? It's amazing to think, though, that we could very well be sitting on 15-30" across the basin then have that with no intervening melting...

Friday system

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Friday system

 

Meh, some models hold off until 00z Saturday onward.. .whatever. 

 

Anyway, these 18z runs are a distraction.  Wonder if they are onto something in backing away ... NAM went from 2.7" liq equiv. at ORH to 1.8" ... 

 

GFS tries to make Mayer DeBlasio look like an idiot.

 

It's almost like no new data made it into the intializations?  

 

In any event, satellite and radar trend in the  TV area show a system that looks like a giant meso it's got so much rotational motion. That's a sh!t load of torgue to drop into an amplifying long wave pattern to assume a weaker solution, so these 18z runs are very suspect to me based on that now-cast observation alone...

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WPC likes Friday storm and Superbowl Sunday

 

THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS LATE WEEK WITH AN AMPLIFYING NRN

STREAM MID-UPPER LATITUDE PATTERN AT MID-UPPER LEVELS. THIS IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY A WARMING WRN NOAM MEAN RIDGE WHOSE DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD ALLOW DEEP DOWNSTREAM CARVING OF AN INCREASINGLY COLD AIR
FED EAST-CENTRAL NOAM MEAN TROUGH. A SERIES OF ENERGETIC EMBEDDED
IMPULSES ALOFT LEND SURFACE BASED LOW/SYSTEM GENESIS. WPC PROGS
OFFER A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL SURGE DOWN ACROSS THE US SRN TIER IN
THE WAKE OF THE TRACK OF AN ORGANIZED WINTER PCPN FOCUSING LOW
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST DAY 3/WED TO THE NORTHEAST DAY 4/FRI
ON THE HEELS OF A MAJOR LEAD SHORT RANGE STORM...BUT WITH LESS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WPC PROGS THEN SHOW A MORE FRIGID ARCTIC BLAST
INTO THE CENTRAL US BY DAY 5/SAT THAT SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS RAPIDLY
SOUTHWARD AND OUT ACROSS THE ERN US DAY 6/SUN WITH WAVY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS LEADS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD LOW/WINTER PCPN
THREAT POSSIBLY FROM THE N-CENTRAL STATES AND MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
BY SAT TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND ESPECIALLY THE NERN US THEN
OFFSHORE SUPERBOWL SUNDAY.

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