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Model Discussion for Late January into February


ORH_wxman

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What makes u convinced? I read earlier this was ots.

 

Not sure just a hunch, similar to the one that had the onslaught starting 1/22 - 24.  Just looking at the way the pattern is shifting, I feel that is the one that will end up having much more room to amplify potentially.  It's an overall look.

I've been medicated all week...will take a better look in the am, it just feels like during these pattern changes it's at about this point one of the s/w's goes off.

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Man, if that trailing s/w can catch up to it a bit sooner, then that's going to hook this back to the left pretty good.

 

Let's hope the trailing s/w is Carl Lewis and the front runner is the fat kid in the waning 200 yards of the mandatory mile he has to run in high school.

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It;s out around D6-7, but all the 00z models tonight (GGEM, Ukie, GFS so far) bring that 1/30 threat back on the table...there's just a lot of shortwaves in the flow. We are gonna have chances...really active and perturbed polar jet.

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It;s out around D6-7, but all the 00z models tonight (GGEM, Ukie, GFS so far) bring that 1/30 threat back on the table...there's just a lot of shortwaves in the flow. We are gonna have chances...really active and perturbed polar jet.

 

That was a weak fropa a couple of days ago. Good stuff.

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That was a weak fropa a couple of days ago. Good stuff.

 

Loop the GEFS on the WSI interface for N Hemipshere 5H heights....that is a ridiculous Archambault signal for 2/1-2/2 timeframe...that massive ridge popping in the west while at the same time, we finally have a big wave break -NAO...but that is a big phase change in the NAO.

 

Whether it is permanent or not is irrelevant to the signal...but really clear Archambault case there.

 

Euro ensembles weren't as enthused at the idea, but still showed a weaker signal. But we've seen the guidance shift pretty rapidly in the medium range recently. So maybe it will get clearer on them in future runs. At least I hope, lol.

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Loop the GEFS on the WSI interface for N Hemipshere 5H heights....that is a ridiculous Archambault signal for 2/1-2/2 timeframe...that massive ridge popping in the west while at the same time, we finally have a big wave break -NAO...but that is a big phase change in the NAO.

 

Whether it is permanent or not is irrelevant to the signal...but really clear Archambault case there.

 

Euro ensembles weren't as enthused at the idea, but still showed a weaker signal. But we've seen the guidance shift pretty rapidly in the medium range recently. So maybe it will get clearer on them in future runs. At least I hope, lol.

 

Yeah we were kind of weenieing out on that today at work..lol. Great signal with what looks like a good s/w diving south off of the PV there. The ensembles continue a massive +PNA right through the period. Maybe we can slowly try to break down that +NAO with these quick hitting wave breaking events there.

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