HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Read more. Post less. Lol Jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro ens say keep an eye on around feb 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Read more. Post less. Lol Jk +1000000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think Monday may trend bigger. It's a small nuance and the euro trended stronger today for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Euro ensemble mean is similar to the OP for the Monday system...looks like a light event, but there is some potential in there for something bigger. Yeah I'm wondering if that's a dynamic theft sort of scenario between Saturday and ~ next Tuesday... The system on Saturday/eve is above median confidence in my mind, but then if so there may not be enough time to put a moisture axis within reach of the clipper/Miller B. Having said that, a lot of guidance types have that as a much slower evolution. It's really more of a coincident (in timing..) of a clipper settling into the bottom of a standing wave/trough... So given time, perhaps Atlantic moisture could be pulled west in CCB or quasi CCB. It's gonna be interesting to see what happens there. That whole set up screams norlun too; if cyclogen proper fails... wouldn't shock me if other impact types unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think Monday may trend bigger. It's a small nuance and the euro trended stronger today for New England.inflate gate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just saw this in the NYC and literally laughed out loud. Imagine actually seeing radar look like this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12-14 hours of snow Saturday and then a break Sunday.. Then 24 hours of snow starting Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just saw this in the NYC and literally laughed out loud. Imagine actually seeing radar look like this... 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 1994I was thinking 1993What storm in 1994? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I think Monday may trend bigger. It's a small nuance and the euro trended stronger today for New England. The 0Z NAM at 84 is down in Delaware with the low, that means the GFS will probably come in over North Carolina, my hunch is we'll lose the GFS at 00Z but then again, thats why we run the models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS actually had a sharp disturbance, but it dove south before curving NE. Definitely something to watch with other 00z guidance. Still close, esp south coast of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yikes Monday Sh it the bed on GFS fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS actually had a sharp disturbance, but it dove south before curving NE. Definitely something to watch with other 00z guidance. Still close, esp south coast of SNE. Goes from a KU to a whiff in 2 runs...all inside 96 hours. I love the new GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS actually had a sharp disturbance, but it dove south before curving NE. Definitely something to watch with other 00z guidance. Still close, esp south coast of SNE.it wasn't even close, congrats DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 it wasn't even close, congrats DC It's nice they'll more than double BOS total by Monday. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Goes from a KU to a whiff in 2 runs...all inside 96 hours. I love the new GFS. POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 it wasn't even close, congrats DC Been saying it for days whoever is expecting that clipper to deliever, will not come to there expectations. Its a DC storm. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The weird thng is I remember para nt changing quicky like this run to run and now there doesn't seem to be any consistency. Case in point Saturday was a near whiff until it got within 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Good thing we board the short bus for Saturday. Not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 The weird thng is I remember para nt changing quicky like this run to run and now there doesn't seem to be any consistency. Case in point Saturday was a near whiff until it got within 60 hours. Yeah we are close enough now that we can say the GFS shat the bed in this coastal...as recently as the 00z run last night it had essentially a whiff. GFS is a fine model for forecasting general patterns...I like the ensembles and such for that. But they have yet to do any type of upgrade on that model that fixes it's underlying atrocities in east coast cyclogenesis during the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Good thing we board the short bus for Saturday. Not. Saturday will be the biggest snow of the winter for you and I. Of course if it's 3 inches it qualifies so it's a low bar but don't sell it short. If we get into the CCB we can have some fun. Remember, I'm driving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Saturday will be the biggest snow of the winter for you and I. Of course if it's 3 inches it qualifies so it's a low bar but don't sell it short. If we get into the CCB we can have some fun. Remember, I'm driving! Saturday is annoying and pisses me off. Screws a textbook Monday event in favor of some slop. Yay. Hopefully the euro isn't as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Saturday is annoying and pisses me off. Screws a textbook Monday event in favor of some slop. Yay. Hopefully the euro isn't as bad. There's nothing you or I can do to change it. Textbook situations a week out early pan out. So take what you get. If you see S+ you'll be saying wheee like the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Saturday is annoying and pisses me off. Screws a textbook Monday event in favor of some slop. Yay. Hopefully the euro isn't as bad. I noticed the hugest change on runs like the GFS have been the energy near Hudson Bay (or just east) dipping down much further...essentially crushing the miller B shortwave...so part of this seems disconnected from the Saturday storm. Though if the Saturday storm was nothing, this might amplify into a Miller B anyway despite the curshing Quebec/ontario Vortex lobe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 From a regionwide snow storm to some snow showers clipping SE areas in 12 hours. Nice. Inside 100 hours to boot. There are going to be areas that get very little on Saturday and then Nada on Monday. Could be here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Here's the 12z GFS that essentially showed a KU for SNE vs the 00z run...look how far south the shortwave is on the 00z run and look at the Quebec/Ontario vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS actually had a sharp disturbance, but it dove south before curving NE. Definitely something to watch with other 00z guidance. Still close, esp south coast of SNE. 3/8/84 was mentioned in the MA thread...its similar until it reaches the MA, but right now this one doesn't want to turn up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 So did the clipper go poof? Looked way south on GFS....lol the upgrade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 GGEM squashes Monday too...this one is toast I think outside of nuisance snows. Pretty decisive trend against it since 18z. Too bad since it had some good things going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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