CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It was still noose tying up winter weather up until this point. Right, but over a week ago...you could see some signs it would change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Maybe something after too. As long as we keep that ridge amplified and the trough digging on the EC, we'll get shots. This is why we were arguing to the noose tying weenies that it wasn't the same cold and dry look. Yeah the amplified western ridge is a lot different from a flatter zonal look with a SE ridge and a vortex to our north...we can get SWFE in those, but you also risk whiffing like we ended up doing...and there's little chance for coastal systems. Now we have some ingredients for coastals. I'd still love a -NAO, but beggars can't be choosers...we'll have to live off of an excellent PAC for now. We'll hope it is enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think the Monday event may be mostly a NYC of PHL event in the end, (not because I'm gonna be out of town) well maybe sort of because of that, but because again I think this previous system may force the track south with the low over Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I would hate to suffer through another rain storm only to get jipped on the miller B potential on Monday/Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Is the GFS out to lunch for Monday's storm? It seems too hold the snow over us for about 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Day 10 euro for the biggest of wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Is the GFS out to lunch for Monday's storm? It seems too hold the snow over us for about 18 hours. It is an outlier right now amongst model guidance for how prolific of a storm it ends up being. The wise thing to do would be to expect something less than what it shows...I'd wait until other model guidance is on board with something like that before really taking it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I would hate to suffer through another rain storm only to get jipped on the miller B potential on Monday/Tuesday. As if you a choice in the matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I would hate to suffer through another rain storm only to get jipped on the miller B potential on Monday/Tuesday. I feel for you James :-(. But that is probably more likely than not at the moment. Unless this Saturday storm moves East and gets the Cape good. Who knows. Just yesterday, we all were hoping we might be getting back to back sig snow storms. Now, who knows? The mood changes with each run, so maybe by tonight it will be looking nice again for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro ensemble mean is similar to the OP for the Monday system...looks like a light event, but there is some potential in there for something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Euro ensemble mean is similar to the OP for the Monday system...looks like a light event, but there is some potential in there for something bigger. I assume as currently modeled this is just a light event for Eastern areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Ok thanks Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 I assume as currently modeled this is just a light event for Eastern areas? It's not confined to just eastern areas...kind of a light event for all of SNE. Maybe slightly more for south coast, but it's pretty uniform on a lot of guidance. GFS obviously is a uniformly big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Pretty good ensemble run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 EC ensembles are jumping on the 2/1 threat that was shown on the OP run at D10 clown range. We'll see how that one trends. Regardless, that is a damned cold pattern setting up for the duration of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 New GFS caving to Euro for 1/26. Shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Gfs is still a decent snow for SNE, but definitely not as good as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 New GFS caving to Euro for 1/26. Shocked Ehhh not really, I see what you sort of are getting at but the GFS in essence still has this thing deepening off LI and SNE which the Euro does not do. I'm inclined to side more Euro for sure, but at the same time I'm having a hard time finding overwhelming reasons why the Euro poofs this when it gets off the Delmarva, the correct answer may be between both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 CIPs analogs of the 12Z GFS Monday storm are like a whose who of great winter snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well no kidding based on 12z GFS LOL. It ain't happening though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well no kidding based on 12z GFS LOL. It ain't happening though.ok thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 To bad Scott, cuz you really liked the look of the Monday setup, but this Saturday system is Fooking it up for all of us...oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 To bad Scott, cuz you really liked the look of the Monday setup, but this Saturday system is Fooking it up for all of us...oh well.actually none of them know for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 To bad Scott, cuz you really liked the look of the Monday setup, but this Saturday system is Fooking it up for all of us...oh well. Yeah because a 4-8 inch storm and then a 3-6 inch storm 2 days later suck..You're right.. I mean WTF is wrong with people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 To bad Scott, cuz you really liked the look of the Monday setup, but this Saturday system is Fooking it up for all of us...oh well. Wait, I said it probably won't be a mega event. I never said no event. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wait, I said it probably won't be a mega event. I never said no event. LOL.Winter Wolf needs name change Whiner Pomeranian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Come on back winterwolf, we will hold your hand and guide you through this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 No I gotch ya, but it has so much potential, that it sucks to not have it use all of it, and be a minor to moderate event. But I'd gladly take a moderate event if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Really Kevin, you aren't even supposed to be on board with this 1st system till tomorrow at 7 pm..go stick with your persistance call from yesterday, and the MLK day system that you were hugging. All I was saying, was that it has a lot of potential like Scott and others have mentioned, to bad it may not get the chance to really expound upon it. Or maybe it will, who knows?? Wasn't meant as a whine, and if it came of that way, I apologize, because that's not what I was meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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