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Model Discussion for Late January into February


ORH_wxman

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Maybe something after too. As long as we keep that ridge amplified and the trough digging on the EC, we'll get shots. This is why we were arguing to the noose tying weenies that it wasn't the same cold and dry look.

 

Yeah the amplified western ridge is a lot different from a flatter zonal look with a SE ridge and a vortex to our north...we can get SWFE in those, but you also risk whiffing like we ended up doing...and there's little chance for coastal systems.

 

Now we have some ingredients for coastals. I'd still love a -NAO, but beggars can't be choosers...we'll have to live off of an excellent PAC for now. We'll hope it is enough.

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Is the GFS out to lunch for Monday's storm? It seems too hold the snow over us for about 18 hours. 

 

It is an outlier right now amongst model guidance for how prolific of a storm it ends up being.

 

The wise thing to do would be to expect something less than what it shows...I'd wait until other model guidance is on board with something like that before really taking it seriously.

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I would hate to suffer through another rain storm only to get jipped on the miller B potential on Monday/Tuesday.

I feel for you James :-(.  But that is probably more likely than not at the moment.  Unless this Saturday storm moves East and gets the Cape good.  Who knows.  Just yesterday, we all were hoping we might be getting back to back sig snow storms.  Now, who knows?  The mood changes with each run, so maybe by tonight it will be looking nice again for your area.

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I assume as currently modeled this is just a light event for Eastern areas?

 

 

It's not confined to just eastern areas...kind of a light event for all of SNE. Maybe slightly more for south coast, but it's pretty uniform on a lot of guidance.

 

GFS obviously is a uniformly big event.

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New GFS caving to Euro for 1/26. Shocked

 

Ehhh not really, I see what you sort of are getting at but the GFS in essence still has this thing deepening off LI and SNE which the Euro does not do.  I'm inclined to side more Euro for sure, but at the same time I'm having a hard time finding overwhelming reasons why the Euro poofs this when it gets off the Delmarva, the correct answer may be between both models.

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Really Kevin, you aren't even supposed to be on board with this 1st system till tomorrow at 7 pm..go stick with your persistance call from yesterday, and the MLK day system that you were hugging.

All I was saying, was that it has a lot of potential like Scott and others have mentioned, to bad it may not get the chance to really expound upon it. Or maybe it will, who knows?? Wasn't meant as a whine, and if it came of that way, I apologize, because that's not what I was meaning.

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