JC-CT Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 This clipper for Monday/Tuesday is being depicted as the strongest clipper this season, Chicago IL gets 8". How can you say that based upon one model? Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 How can you say that based upon one model?The one model showing the system is more than likely out to lunch. Unless you are buying the gfs 100%.Really need to see more than just 1 model. Hopefully euro shows something at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 The one model showing the system is more than likely out to lunch. Unless you are buying the gfs 100%. Really need to see more than just 1 model. Hopefully euro shows something at 12z All models have the system...the GFS is just the most robust. Euro is the least...almost a total whiff. 12z Ukie wasn't very good, though it's probably not ziltch. Probably a light event, esp for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Unless the euro or even something else hops on, this really isn't a legit threat IMO. What a stupid statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What a stupid statement. You are a strong candidate for WPOTY. All models have the system...the GFS is just the most robust. Euro is the least...almost a total whiff. 12z Ukie wasn't very good, though it's probably not ziltch. Probably a light event, esp for eastern areas. The GFS has a big swath over a foot of snow for that storm. I don't think anyone is ruling out a snow event, but the GFS is on its own right now with the kind of depiction that it has shown over the past three runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Will how does the UKIE look for the Saturday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 All models have the system...the GFS is just the most robust. Euro is the least...almost a total whiff. 12z Ukie wasn't very good, though it's probably not ziltch. Probably a light event, esp for eastern areas. I think some light stuff may be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What a stupid statement. far from stupid, he stating that if only one models shows it and all other are whiffs, why would we consider this a threat at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 People have criticized the GFS for not being consistent enough, and then when it is consistent enough its wrong as well because its on its own, the EURO is not king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What a stupid statement. Not really. I'm being realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 far from stupid, he stating that if only one models shows it and all other are whiffs, why would we consider this a threat at this point? Because if at least one model is showing a consistent hit it should not be ignored as well, so its a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GGEM more realistic in terms of strength, around 978-976 still a good track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Because if at least one model is showing a consistent hit it should not be ignored as well, so its a threat. yes, that is fine, but it's not stupid statement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GEFS aren't too bad. Maybe not as juicy as 6z. I agree with Tblizz to a point, I'd like to see the euro on board before I get too excited. I'm not there right now with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not really. I'm being realistic. The Euro and UK are the only models showing whiffs. All the other models are hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That's fine Scott, I never said that was a stupid idea, I'm just arguing the fact that it is still a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The Euro and UK are the only models showing whiffs. All the other models are hits. I wouldn't call the Canadian a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 I wouldn't call the Canadian a hit. For this winter, it's a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 For this winter, it's a KU. LOL, true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 canadian is not bad. not a miss.. maybe Euro shows something different today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z CMC finally came south, but is now too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Won't matter until t minus 36, not a good modeling year. Going myself to scale back even more until confidence in model output comes back, pretty much conjecture is all there is when talking specifics, general temp profiles are ok but meso details are sketchy plus 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That's fine Scott, I never said that was a stupid idea, I'm just arguing the fact that it is still a threat. Nobody is arguing that it shouldn't be closely watched. However, I would need to see much greater consensus for the GFS depiction to have the excitement level that you currently have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The EURO had the same solution for several runs before dropping it at 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I wouldn't trust the Euro with anything right now but I think it's idea for Monday makes more sense than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looking at the individual GEFS members available on ewall, it doesn't look like they support an OP-size snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Won't matter until t minus 36, not a good modeling year. Going myself to scale back even more until confidence in model output comes back, pretty much conjecture is all there is when talking specifics, general temp profiles are ok but meso details are sketchy plus 36 Yep that is my approach. I've lost interest until the radar is lighting up, so far I haven't missed a big snowstorm yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looking at the individual GEFS members available on ewall, it doesn't look like they support an OP-size snowstorm. If you can get decent onshore flow, you'll probably be able to fluff up lackluster QPF. I know a good look when I see one and this could have it, but the problem is Saturday's deal and how it mucks up the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think it's too early to count out the monday event. Models won't have a good handle on that until the first storm is figured out. But I think I lean against it for now because ukie and euro vs gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'd probably lean to something light at the moment, but that's about all you can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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