SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That is such a needle-threader. I wouldn't be invested in that until it is inside of 72h with all models agreeing on it. It really is, I still would be more worried about it missing than going rainy for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Man complicated flow next week. The low that sort of kicks the low on Tuesday east, tries to give some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am waiting for any model to have this over more than 2 runs before I hitch my wagon to it. That being said, the GFS has some nice pieces in place. Looks decent upstream as well. Most awaited Euro of the season upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Boy GFS is in no rush to hurry next weeks system off the southeast coast. Looks like it is about to cut-off at hour 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The system on Tuesday/Weds looks too far SE for now. But heck, 7-8 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looks a little too far east next week as the ridge axis out west is a bit too far east on the GFS. Did we not say that about boxing day blizzard 2010? If the shortwave amplifies enough it puss in closer? Any chance weekend storm changes the Atlantic enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Boy GFS is in no rush to hurry next weeks system off the southeast coast. Looks like it is about to cut-off at hour 168. It's gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Did we not say that about boxing day blizzard 2010? If the shortwave amplifies enough it puss in closer? Any chance weekend storm changes the Atlantic enough? There are a lot of things that can pull it closer or push it away at this stage. Sharper ridge out west or further west ridge axis will develop cyclogenesis off the SE coast, likewise a weaker amplificating ridge or further east displacement will have cyclogenesis further east. And nothing will change the Atlantic from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Clipper in its wake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 No doubt a more active pattern which is good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The NAVGEM, after leading the way on this for several days now and having all other guidance trend towards it is now super weak and OTS for Saturday, zero for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 There are a lot of things that can pull it closer or push it away at this stage. Sharper ridge out west or further west ridge axis will develop cyclogenesis off the SE coast, likewise a weaker amplificating ridge or further east displacement will have cyclogenesis further east. And nothing will change the Atlantic from what I can see. There is confluence to our north and a vortex near NF. Thread the needle but it's not like there isn't anything in place that makes the weekend storm impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The NAVGEM, after leading the way on this for several days now and having all other guidance trend towards it is now super weak and OTS for Saturday, zero for all. The NAVGEM will lead the way into a moving freight train. Nobody cares about that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 There is confluence to our north and a vortex near NF. Thread the needle but it's not like there isn't anything in place that makes the weekend storm impossible There is actually almost no confluence to our north...that is why there is low pressure in Quebec instead of the preferred high pressure as the storm approaches. The storm is not impossible, but it will take a lot of breaks to go right in favor of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 There is confluence to our north and a vortex near NF. Thread the needle but it's not like there isn't anything in place that makes the weekend storm impossible Nothing is impossible, but there are details outlined earlier that argue for a more thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The NAVGEM will lead the way into a moving freight train. Nobody cares about that model. Care about it if you want, but if this event verifies it was the first to get it by several days. It's verification isn't so terrible either, it's basically equal to the GGEM which we look at and use. No guidance is bad guidance if you know how to use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 There is actually almost no confluence to our north...that is why there is low pressure in Quebec instead of the preferred high pressure as the storm approaches. The storm is not impossible, but it will take a lot of breaks to go right in favor of it. I should specify that I'm talking about this weekend...for the 2nd threat, it might have a better shot. There's multiple systems being talked about on this run, so I know it gets confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ukie likes the second storm, sends the first one OTS which seems like the better solution if you want the second one to make the turn up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I like where the GFS is at 12z run. I don't want it to change otherwise I rain for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Care about it if you want, but if this event verifies it was the first to get it by several days. It's verification isn't so terrible either, it's basically equal to the GGEM which we look at and use. No guidance is bad guidance if you know how to use it. It's overload and not a good model. I'll stick with the other big dogs for guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Look at the kicker behind it. Nothing to back the flow. Just way too progressive a pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ukie likes the second storm, sends the first one OTS which seems like the better solution if you want the second one to make the turn up the coast. My gut says a weaker storm Saturday will keep the baroclinic zone closer to the coast and setup a better situation for the second low. It will also depend on how the 500mb pattern sets up out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Look at the kicker behind it. Nothing to back the flow. Just way too progressive a pattern That low sucks on the GFS, but it's been all over the place with that, so I would not sweat it this far out. This is regarding Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Care about it if you want, but if this event verifies it was the first to get it by several days. It's verification isn't so terrible either, it's basically equal to the GGEM which we look at and use. No guidance is bad guidance if you know how to use it. The model is utterly useless to me for EC cyclogenesis. It scores worse than the GGEM too..it consistently has around a .03 lower anomaly correlation in winter at H5 on a 5 day forecast, though the most recent month it has been less of a gap, more like 0.012. Back when it was the NOGAPs a few years ago, it had a severe SE bias in coastals which sort of made it useful at times, but since it's upgrade, it basically just seems all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice track on the 12z GFS for interior SE MA peeps. BL may warm a touch initially but dynamics take over as the low intensifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not necessarily specific to this area, but did ensembles more definitively step away from cold over mid atl , Ohio valley or here in last 48 hours? Natural gas prices fell off cliff today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not necessarily specific to this area, but did ensembles more definitively step away from cold over mid atl , Ohio valley or here in last 48 hours? Natural gas prices fell off cliff today Been that way for a few days , but still cold overall. Models all over the place. However the easing if the cold can coincide with storms as well which is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Been that way for a few days , but still cold overall. Models all over the place. However the easing if the cold can coincide with storms as well which is fine by me. Ok i thought they may have flipped back very cold saturday And if our chances stink it wont be as cold, so yippee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Apparently this storm is gonna be so bad the GGEM could not even run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 How Ironic would it be, if we got both of these Bears LMAO!! The Irony of this season has been amazing to date, and this would just be the Capper if all of a sudden it turned around on a dime and gave us two Major systems back to back.....it would be the king of Irony. Make no mistake, I don't think that is happening at all. Just give us one of them is more than good enough imo...I'm not greedy. But when you think about it, the idea fits with the way this season has gone....which is "not according to the long term ideas" would have led us to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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