CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 One model run relax. It doesn't matter if Saturday is a nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 1st system nuked out so hard that it doesn't allow for downstream ridging to recover in time for storm #2. I think that lagging shortwave behind storm #1, is hurting storm #2 more. If that shortwave where to phase in storm #1, storm #2 might have enough room to go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Maybe the second one can still drop snow on us but instead of a big one , like a moderate deal It still could. Next week just was textbook looking yesterday. Hopefully Saturday works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It doesn't matter if Saturday is a nuke. I'm out of town unfortunately just my f*****g luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I have a question for you Mets. I guess this is the best thread to ask. Deeper storms seem to be more tucked in or west. So for instance the last Euro run shows a 962mb storm east of ACK. Don't see storms much deeper than that. So if future runs show a weaker storm, say 970's, would it not go to reason the storm will be east? Or is more a question of where the whole trough sets up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think that lagging shortwave behind storm #1, is hurting storm #2 more. If that shortwave where to phase in storm #1, storm #2 might have enough room to go to town. Yeah that lagging shortwave has always been there...but it slows down a bit from storm #1 going so nuclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Harumph. Well I also didn't see Saturday nuking out into a 960mb low off ACK. Next week still has some legs...Euro just shows one of a hundred different ways it doesn't produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Wow you guys are crushed on that EURO run. Shades of 2012-13...everyone tosses in the towel than Bam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z GGEM west of 0z, 979mb over ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Well I also didn't see Saturday nuking out into a 960mb low off ACK. Next week still has some legs...Euro just shows one of a hundred different ways it doesn't produce. Hah, I'm not calling you out, really just pointing out how quickly thinking can change, and that I had a weird fear of this possibility. To your credit there, you did leave the door open for caveats (moreso a slower first system, but still). Given the compact look this thing has pretty consistently had, this was actually among my concerns; storm 1 gets ripping so bloody boss that it jiggers up the works for storm 2's potential. A fine problem to have, if the Euro were to come to fruition. But there's still wiggle room, time-wise, from here to there. We're, what, 80-ish hours out? Ensembles should give a clue to how tight the goal posts are for #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 image.jpg Shoot i was 3 miles off...............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Still might be able to grab some light snows next week if we can get some decent onshore flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z GFS has Miller B for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z has a light event for early next week. Is that solution directly the result of how it handled this weekends system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z GFS has Miller B for early next week. Probably because Saturday's storm was weaker on the 18z GFS. Personally, I'd rather take my chances with the miller b, but obviously beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Probably because Saturday's storm was weaker on the 18z GFS. Personally, I'd rather take my chances with the miller b, but obviously beggars can't be choosers. Exactly! We have the majority of guidance dumping on is in 72-84 hours. Take it and run. If it messes up next week fine...a big snow is worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Exactly! We have the majority of guidance dumping on is in 72-84 hours. Take it and run. If it messes up next week fine...a big snow is worth it. Just not sold on big snow for Boston yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z GFS long range is a freezer for the eastern 2/3 of the consus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just not sold on big snow for Boston yet. This year, this system will qualify. 3+ wins and that to me is a decent bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Figures when a storm is forecast I'm out of town. Fml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just not sold on big snow for Boston yet. Whats the concern? Temps? Pretty decent consensus on good QPF if you toss the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 18z GFS long range is a freezer for the eastern 2/3 of the consus LOL, that is an understatement...Holy Cold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Whats the concern? Temps? Pretty decent consensus on good QPF if you toss the GFS. I don't know his concerns in SE MA but in my hood, we worry about taint or rain. There are some NW members on euro ens, enough to not do a touchdown dance just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Whats the concern? Temps? Pretty decent consensus on good QPF if you toss the GFS. Yeah, I mean any NW and it's a lot of taint and dryslot. That, and it probably would crush next week if it were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Just not sold on big snow for Boston yet. Have we had a big snow without a -AO on Don S's charts. Seems like at least 90% of 8-10+ events had -AO unless im reading it incorrectly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Have we had a big snow without a -AO on Don S's charts. Seems like at least 90% of 8-10+ events had -AO unless im reading it incorrectly We've had 6-12" events with a +AO. You just don't want it raging....like something we had in '11-'12. I think the one event we had was with helping of ridging out west in January of 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Have we had a big snow without a -AO on Don S's charts. Seems like at least 90% of 8-10+ events had -AO unless im reading it incorrectlythe AO is negative Pickles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS laid a turd for the 1/24 event but coming in solid for the 1/26 Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 2nd system still looks OK on GFS regionwide 4-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS laid a turd for the 1/24 event but coming in solid for the 1/26 Miller B 00z GFS handles the phase and amplitude of the west coast ridge significantly different than 18z, going to be crucial going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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