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Model Discussion for Late January into February


ORH_wxman

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NavGEM a miss over 38N/70W...NAM west and amped, for the first time this winter every model is doing what you'd expect...something has to go wrong doesn't it?

 

You'd expect the Euro to be slightly west of the GFS and then it's back to 2005-2011 again.

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Well It's not that it may miss...but there is very little room for error for you and I in terms of temps.

To be all snow yes, but I think there's a decent amount of wiggle room to get say advisory accumulations on the back end as the storm deepens and pulls away, and given what we've seen so far I think we'd be happy with that, I know I would.

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While there's still plenty of time for it to go wrong, this is 90 hours out, not 190. It's much more realistic than some of the other threats we've seen at this lead time.

 

GGEM way NW of the 12z run, probably going to start as rain for a lot of folks before flipping to heavy snow but it's hard to tell from the blackandwhites.

 

Edit: Nope, all snow and lots of it.

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