CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:30 AM, ORH_wxman said: Here's the 12z GFS that essentially showed a KU for SNE vs the 00z run...look how far south the shortwave is on the 00z run and look at the Quebec/Ontario vortex It's been all over the place with that, but man that disturbance is tasty. Kills me to see that go way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 There is a parade of potential miller b redevelopers. This one (monday) is only the first one and the pattern is good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:23 AM, weathafella said: There's nothing you or I can do to change it. Textbook situations a week out early pan out. So take what you get. If you see S+ you'll be saying wheee like the rest of us. I know that Jerry..but I'm not dry humping slop like some of you are for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:42 AM, CoastalWx said: I know that Jerry..but I'm not dry humping slop like some of you are for Saturday. I'll enjoy Saturday. First of all because it's Saturday, no work, sleep in. Second of all because I like seeing a stormy day. Third of all it reminds me of a Saturday last winter I think when we got a few hours of heavy wet snow after a rainy morning, I enjoyed that day even if the end result was slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Cmc gives no one on the east coast anything other than light stuff Monday. Unlike Will I think this one is too early to write off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:38 AM, ORH_wxman said: GGEM squashes Monday too...this one is toast I think outside of nuisance snows. Pretty decisive trend against it since 18z. Too bad since it had some good things going for it. The UKMET looks very sharp at 72 hours...I'd guess its a near miss after that, but it sure looks like it could try to make a run after 84 hours up the coast off SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:48 AM, weathafella said: Cmc gives no one on the east coast anything other than light stuff Monday. Unlike Will I think this one is too early to write off. What did the euro show for the Monday one Jerry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Canadian shows a parade of potential systems, basically one every other day, till the end of the run. Lots to track here, even if the Monday system is a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The awesome winter of 14-15 continues! p.s. I really dislike the new BOX colors for their snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It looks like the Debbie Downers and realists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Won this round, congrats on dishing out on the Monday system, you win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just got home. Euro is definitely NW of its 12z prior run. The 0z tracks over ack, slightly stronger. Temps aloft not all that different. GEM and euro not really all that different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 BOX says Monday is a miss..but I think we all still see a nice 1-3 or 2-4 inch deal. What's wrong with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 9:04 AM, jamesnichols89 said: It looks like the Debbie Downers and realists On 1/23/2015 at 9:05 AM, jamesnichols89 said: Won this round, congrats on dishing out on the Monday system, you win. lol it's not a contest. It's called forecasting, not cheerleading haha. Funny you lumped in "realists" with Debbie downers. Thats usually how it turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Earth to Scooter...you can't control the weather. People are more excited about tomorrow than Monday because tomorrow is actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 monday looks gorgeous for much of the country except us......cruel beyond cruel to miss that for a few sloppy inches tomorrow....im hoping for a miracle for monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 11:57 AM, JC-CT said: Earth to Scooter...you can't control the weather. People are more excited about tomorrow than Monday because tomorrow is actually happening. A lot of areas will get accumulating snow tomorrow before the possible changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 We can always hope the Ukie and NAVGEM score a coup...they both have the Monday system as a big hit here. But not exactly the guidance you want on your side if you have to choose outliers. Today is probably the last realistic chance to get us back in the game for accumulating snow..approaching 72h, and if you are whiffing by 100+ miles by then, it's over. I'm not very optimistic though...the Euro has put the kabosh on this system for the last several runs and it has seemingly led the way. It did improve slightly yesterday at 12z before going back to almost nothing at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:04 PM, ORH_wxman said: We can always hope the Ukie and NAVGEM score a coup...they both have the Monday system as a big hit here. But not exactly the guidance you want on your side if you have to choose outliers. Today is probably the last realistic chance to get us back in the game for accumulating snow..approaching 72h, and if you are whiffing by 100+ miles by then, it's over. I'm not very optimistic though...the Euro has put the kabosh on this system for the last several runs and it has seemingly led the way. It did improve slightly yesterday at 12z before going back to almost nothing at 00z. Its Prob going to be like a 1-3 or 2-4 inch deal based on available guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 In about 10 days or so, I think there is a pretty decent chance that any disappointment from the next two storms is a fading memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:21 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Its Prob going to be like a 1-3 or 2-4 inch deal based on available guidance I would take the under right now. All guidance minus the Ukie and NAVGEM has less than 2" of snow for us. We'll need to see improvement on the 12z suite or we can probably pull the plug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:27 PM, ORH_wxman said: I would take the under right now. All guidance minus the Ukie and NAVGEM has less than 2" of snow for us. We'll need to see improvement on the 12z suite or we can probably pull the plug. Well it looks like there's a lot of Easterly flow on many of the products..so I'd be willing to wager there's at the least some widespread light snow around on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:27 PM, JC-CT said: In about 10 days or so, I think there is a pretty decent chance that any disappointment from the next two storms is a fading memory. Are you looking at that lil critter for Feb 2nd or so JC...what are you thinking with regards to that???? Do tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks like the GFS is mostly nuisance snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 3:49 PM, WinterWolf said: Are you looking at that lil critter for Feb 2nd or so JC...what are you thinking with regards to that???? Do tell. Entrenched cold, PNA ridge and hints of transient blocking in the N. Atlantic. I don't know about any specific shortwaves but it doesn't surprise me that various models are popping something up around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:04 PM, ORH_wxman said: Looks like the GFS is mostly nuisance snows. For Monday? It should have it figured out by Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It's awesome watching the south get clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:06 PM, JC-CT said: For Monday? It should have it figured out by Sunday night. Unfortunately the Euro has been pretty consistent with a miss (or just nuisance snows). Don't think this one has much chance of being a solid event. Doesn't mean it won't snow at all though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:05 PM, JC-CT said: Entrenched cold, PNA ridge and hints of transient blocking in the N. Atlantic. I don't know about any specific shortwaves but it doesn't surprise me that various models are popping something up around that time. I was thinking the same way...nice look. Although the last few years, we seem to get the storms when things look sh***y, like in Feb 2013, and tomorrow's set up has alot to be desired as well...but it just may deliver lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 On 1/23/2015 at 4:07 PM, CoastalWx said: It's awesome watching the south get clippers. Melting away you are you are. Doesn't mean we don't love your insight. Nice to land with snow otg in KPIT tho not much here in the city. We'll have snow otg that you'll wake up to tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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