ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The other thread is up to 75 pages and seemed to be unraveling a bit with emotional weenie posts...so lets get a fresh thread going for the late January into February threats. Talk about the models in here, but leave your psycho-analysis to the banter thread please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 If you look at the setup this weekend, this is why it might be difficult to accomplish. You can't rule it out, but at first look...I'm not too excited yet. Here is hr 120. Prior to this, you had low pressure and WAA ahead of the low and Quebec. Not exactly text book setup. High pressure is way offshore which causes a lack of good differential temperature advection and thus a tigher CCB near the center. It also warms us up. Frontogenesis is lacking except from lower level forcing near the center. Also, while we have a ridge out west...Canada is not exactly a nice setup at 500mb at hr 120. And then at hr 144, the s/w responsible for the bomb se of ACK is about to pump up ridging in the east and boot the weekend low way OTS. hr 120 ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_6.png hr 120 500mb ecmwf_z500a_us_6.png hr 144 500 ecmwf_z500a_us_7.png I thought this was a good post by Scott on why the weekend threat is pretty tough...the better look is for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I thought this was a good post by Scott on why the weekend threat is pretty tough...the better look is for Monday. Thinking you meant the better look is for Tuesday night...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Thinking you meant the better look is for Tuesday night...... I should probably say "anywhere between Monday and Tuesday night"...the timing is differing from run to run on that 2nd threat. Yesterday's 12z Euro and last night's GGEM liked it more for Monday/Monday night while the 00z Euro seemed to hold off more until Tues/Tues night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 All I know is next week is as good a look as we've had all winter. Let's see what happens but I'd guess BOS triples it's season total between now and 2/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I should probably say "anywhere between Monday and Tuesday night"...the timing is differing from run to run on that 2nd threat. Yesterday's 12z Euro and last night's GGEM liked it more for Monday/Monday night while the 00z Euro seemed to hold off more until Tues/Tues night. Ah ok. Good point. I noticed that when I looked this morning, but brain didn't put it together. Delaying the arrival of the second system would be to our benefit no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 All I know is next week is as good a look as we've had all winter. Let's see what happens but I'd guess BOS triples it's season total between now and 2/3. And then doubles it with a single storm between 2/5-10 because it's a mandatory rule that a significant storm occur during that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 All I know is next week is as good a look as we've had all winter. Let's see what happens but I'd guess BOS triples it's season total between now and 2/3.If you expanded to 2/10 I'd be a little more confident. Still the opportunity for disaster on a few of these threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm not really one for model pbp as it is coming out, but the 12z GFS is kind of looking amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm not really one for model pbp as it is coming out, but the 12z GFS is kind of looking amazing. The trough is definitely more n-s oriented over the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Lol gfs might do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Closer this run, Looks similar to the 0z Euro, But looks a tad warm aloft for the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That'll do pig, that'll do. Not a bad look for inside 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Im feeling this one lets see what the other models have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS is closer on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That'll do pig, that'll do. Not a bad look for inside 5 days. Verbatim, it looks like the kicker out of the GL is running along too far north, allowing for this S/W to dig deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Shift that 100 miles west and we have a damn good blizzard GFS is closer on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Verbatim, it looks like the kicker out of the GL is running along too far north, allowing for this S/W to dig deeper. It was slightly north of the 06z run allowing a little more room to move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Shift that 100 miles west and we have a damn good blizzard Yeah, no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Shift that 100 miles west and we have a damn good blizzard But some may end up with BL issues if that happens as well unless dynamics can over come them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 We don't toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Im pretty sure dynamics would take over thats one heck of a storm 966mb is nothing to sneeze at But some may end up with BL issues if that happens as well unless dynamics can over come them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 How is it that the one hour image we all want to see: hour 114 is currently unavailable while hour 144 is out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Little compact moisture bomb just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 That is such a needle-threader. I wouldn't be invested in that until it is inside of 72h with all models agreeing on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 How is it that the one hour image we all want to see: hour 114 is currently unavailable while hour 144 is out 968mb @ aprrox 41.5/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 How is it that the one hour image we all want to see: hour 114 is currently unavailable while hour 144 is out NCEP has it. CC/SE MA getting smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looks a little too far east next week as the ridge axis out west is a bit too far east on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 NCEP has it. CC/SE MA getting smoked. Ah ok. I complete lost interest in the NCEP site. Haven't been there in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looks a little too far east next week as the ridge axis out west is a bit too far east on the GFS. Ridge axis is like 2 states (Nevada & Utah) different between the GFS and the Euro. Will have to see what Euro at 12z does with it. But these are just details for that systems at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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