Birds~69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Ch6 (Accu Weather) going a little lighter as of 6:15am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wxsim with 6z data for the Northwest Chester County Area (above 650ft) - Light snow arriving toward 9pm this evening temp 31.1 - Moderate snow by 10pm temp 30.3 - Heavy Snow by 1am temp 29.6 (1.6" snow) - Mix Snow/Ip at 4am temp down to 28.7 (3.3" snow) - Mix Snow/IP thru 6am then IP/ZR thru 1:30pm (total ZR 0.23") Snow arrives again on Sunday evening around 930pm and snows heavy at times thru late day on Monday with around 9.0" of new snow by evening Then the deep freeze next week with some near zero lows mid-week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wxsim with 6z data for the Northwest Chester County Area (above 650ft) - Light snow arriving toward 9pm this evening temp 31.1 - Moderate snow by 10pm temp 30.3 - Heavy Snow by 1am temp 29.6 (1.6" snow) - Mix Snow/Ip at 4am temp down to 28.7 (3.3" snow) - Mix Snow/IP thru 6am then IP/ZR thru 1:30pm (total ZR 0.23") Snow arrives again on Sunday evening around 930pm and snows heavy at times thru late day on Monday with around 9.0" of new snow by evening Then the deep freeze next week with some near zero lows mid-week wxsim showing 9" of snow for Monday? Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 The way models have been this season.....I would be floored if that verified.... wxsim showing 9" of snow for Monday? Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z nam looks beautiful. ABE looks like all snow, .6-.7" qpf Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z nam looks beautiful. ABE looks like all snow, .6-.7" qpf Sent from my iPhone Yeah - 12z nam says nice job Mt. Holly with your current snow forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yeah - 12z nam says nice job Mt. Holly with your current snow forecast Nam would actually be warning criteria. SREF plume is up to 6" avg. 5 members over 8" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nam would actually be warning criteria. SREF plume is up to 6" avg. 5 members over 8" Sent from my iPhone they have 4-6" on their map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS has low further off coast but is warmer than the NAM. Strange Who will be correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 what a mess of a storm. gfs probably not as good at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Still like 1-4 back home. Haven't seen EC yet but all else points to that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Still like 1-4 back home. Haven't seen EC yet but all else points to that range. From the NY forum it sounds like the Euro is better for inland NJ but Flemington and Ewing may be too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z ECM would argue for 4-6" higher elevations NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 From the NY forum it sounds like the Euro is better for inland NJ but Flemington and Ewing may be too far south. Looks like around 4 in Ewing so I'll still keep that range. Interestingly GFS/SREF are near the bottom (at least 9Z SREF was). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Can't remember the last time Dr No was a yes for areas that american models have mostly rain 12 hours before a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Can't remember the last time Dr No was a yes for areas that american models have mostly rain 12 hours before a storm More like 6 hours, geez louise. I have this nagging feeling that ice is going to be an issue north of route 1, maybe along into the 202 corridor area. Call it the Lambertville to Bridewater strip. Still seeing the models give the idea that the low doesn't crank until it's under the best jet dynamics, but that doesn't happen until after it is around ACY. So the upper level trough axes suggest warming aloft for the southern 2/3 of the state, but if the winds never really blow hard off the ocean, and are NE by the time it starts to bomb, how are we not going to wetbulb down to 30/31/32 away from the immediate coastal plain? I think maybe some light icing for Philly-Trenton-New Brunswick, and maybe a little more Lambertville to Bridgewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Eurowx snow map Whoops. It didn't show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Eurowx snow map Whoops. It didn't show up don't have to show the map but some numbers for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Wunderground snow maps have 5" in Philly and 6-8" for N&W burbs-everybody not just northern portions Insane difference from american models Monmouth County bulls eye of 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Trying again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I heard that the Eurowx algorithm does not accumulate snow when the surface is above freezing. Don't know if it's true but it may account for the lower totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looking at the ECM map big improvements everywhere! 0z had my area at 2" now 4-5" From experience they are typically a touch conservative, weatherbell exagerated and wunderground somewhere inbetween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I heard that the Eurowx algorithm does not accumulate snow when the surface is above freezing. Don't know if it's true but it may account for the lower totals. It is, you usually have to split the difference between it and the westherbell nutso maps, if it's 34/24 it thinks no accumulation is occurring because it doesn't assume werbulbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Is this the Obs thread as well? Still 80% sunny but high clouds drifting in 38.9 / 28.5DP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It is, you usually have to split the difference between it and the westherbell nutso maps, if it's 34/24 it thinks no accumulation is occurring because it doesn't assume werbulbing Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 (It's been a year, how is everyone?) Haven't paid too much attention, but I have to admit to being bullish on this one. With stagnant cold, we get killed with the 850-925 warm nose, but I just don't see that being an issue N and W. I like the northerly flow at the surface, like the radar presentation and water vapor loop. Also like that the surface reports in the precip shield are slightly better (on average) than forecast. And, I always prefer the ECMWF (I have no idea what to make of the GFS at this point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 (It's been a year, how is everyone?) Dang, you disappeared for a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 (It's been a year, how is everyone?) Haven't paid too much attention, but I have to admit to being bullish on this one. With stagnant cold, we get killed with the 850-925 warm nose, but I just don't see that being an issue N and W. I like the northerly flow at the surface, like the radar presentation and water vapor loop. Also like that the surface reports in the precip shield are slightly better (on average) than forecast. And, I always prefer the ECMWF (I have no idea what to make of the GFS at this point). Thoughts align. Thinking this one performs well. Check the dews north of the AC Expressway. I shifted my thinking that this was a rainy solution 15 miles NW of the turnpike to 15 mile SE. Just don't see the surface torching tomorrow, so if its rain, I think ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Dang, you disappeared for a while... I was a little lost after the break-up But this is home... I also like that ray is calling for 4 in his backyard, and I can't recall him ever busting too low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I was a little lost after the break-up But this is home... I also like that ray is calling for 4 in his backyard, and I can't recall him ever busting too low... Jan 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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