Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 6z gfs is looking good. SECS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 6z gfs is looking good. SECS! Rain to snow for i95 and SE.... It's much warmer then previous runs... Mon/Tue however is an SECS/MECS on this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Rain to snow for i95 and SE.... It's much warmer then previous runs... Mon/Tue however is an SECS/MECS on this run.... The GFS is way to amped, strong with low for Mon/Tue in my view. As is would be in the 40's on Monday then the snow would fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Our new snowfall forecast map blame me if you must for forecasting this underwhelming amount. Realistic at this point, and honestly, 3 to 4" would be fantastic. One step at a time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 6z GFS is a no go this weekend either? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 6z GFS is a no go this weekend either? Not a no go really, Mt. Holly's snowmap works for the 6Z GFS better than for the 0z it would seem. While it's warmer and wetter (more west), 6z is an improvement over the 0z run imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like weather outlets still saying 3-6 for ABE Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Meanwhile the 6z GFS shows a true SECS for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like weather outlets still saying 3-6 for ABE Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Meanwhile the 6z GFS shows a true SECS for Tuesday.Likely overdone with little support for this solution. Looks awesome on the gfs tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 another roller coaster model run, gfs brings back smiles after rainy euro run. place your bets for the 12z runs today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 another roller coaster model run, gfs brings back smiles after rainy euro run. place your bets for the 12z runs today Im going with the models shifting back west and torching the bl this run. We get the track we want but sacrifice a boatload of precip on taint and rain. Thats my guess anyway.Thinking 3-6" still for my area (leaning low end of that range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wxsim program with 6z data shows 1.72" of precip falling between 1am Saturday morning and 11am Tuesday morning. Here is the breakdown (it will only change.....a lot with future runs!) - Snow starts Saturday toward 1am temp 28.0 - 4am Mod Snow Temp 27.8 - 7am IP Snow mix - 2.5" of snow/ip temp 28.1 - 10am IP/ZR mix temp 30.2 - 11am-3pm - Snow/Rain mix 0.28" w.e. falls during this time 4pm - mix transitions back to Heavy Snow with another 2" accumulating before ending around 6pm - temp 31.9 Snow begins again on Monday 4am with 1" - 3" falling before going to Snow/Rain Mix for most of the day Back to Heavy Snow at 4pm thru 11am Tuesday morning with an additional 7.0" of snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wxsim program with 6z data shows 1.72" of precip falling between 1am Saturday morning and 11am Tuesday morning. Here is the breakdown (it will only change.....a lot with future runs!) - Snow starts Saturday toward 1am temp 28.0 - 4am Mod Snow Temp 27.8 - 7am IP Snow mix - 2.5" of snow/ip temp 28.1 - 10am IP/ZR mix temp 30.2 - 11am-3pm - Snow/Rain mix 0.28" w.e. falls during this time 4pm - mix transitions back to Heavy Snow with another 2" accumulating before ending around 6pm - temp 31.9 Snow begins again on Monday 4am with 1" - 3" falling before going to Snow/Rain Mix for most of the day Back to Heavy Snow at 4pm thru 11am Tuesday morning with an additional 7.0" of snow falling What's the total snow for Saturday ?? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What's the total snow for Saturday ?? Sent from my iPhone You just have to do the math on what ChescoPaWxman posted. It looks like a couple inches (3 - 4 or 5") of slop. Monday looks a tad more interesting. More cold air moving in there I would think....not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Thanks Birds Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 What's the total snow for Saturday ?? Sent from my iPhone 4.85623- 5.3924 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 MA forum not all that enthused about the NAM "for them" which probably doesn't bold well for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 MA forum not all that enthused about the NAM "for them" which probably doesn't bold well for us... Looks like a general 3-6 inch storm for SE PA if it is cool enough. But it looks warm especially around 95, so I'd say mixing issues for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 MA forum not all that enthused about the NAM "for them" which probably doesn't bold well for us... 2-4" inches per the nam north and west w/ mixing around the city and to the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That looks about right with what the Wxsim program is thinking at this point.....but no doubt this will change quite a bit by 12z runs tomorrow AM 2-4" inches per the nam north and west w/ mixing around the city and to the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That looks about right with what the Wxsim program is thinking at this point.....but no doubt this will change quite a bit by 12z runs tomorrow AM Yeah I am not sure that this can trend any better at this point, but it can get worse. IMO the ceiling right now is 3-6" type system unless there is some improvement with the global 12z runs, but I don't expect there to be one. I am already moving onto the first few days of February as that period has caught my attention for a while now and could hold easily the best potential of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 RGEM looks like it is coming in as a blowtorch. Only out to 48 but it looks like the low is going to hug the coast and everyone changes over to either ice NW or rain to the city and south and fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 RGEM looks like it is coming in as a blowtorch. Only out to 48 but it looks like the low is going to hug the coast and everyone changes over to either ice NW or rain to the city and south and fairly quickly. Hope not but I think that will be the case...warm air will come in/further W and it will be just slop. Still a little time but the tread is not great. Need the GFS/Euro to offer some hope in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Hope not but I think that will be the case...warm air will come in/further W and it will be just slop. Still a little time but the tread is not great. Need the GFS/Euro to offer some hope in a bit. Yeah, no high pressure and marginal cold air around, it comes down to track. And with this one if it's too far east there is not much precip, too far west and you changeover. I don't have high hopes right now. But with the way this winter is going, if we squeeze out 3 inches, I'll be ecstatic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Can't say for sure but the GFS looks pretty messy. Anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 RGEM looks like it is coming in as a blowtorch. Only out to 48 but it looks like the low is going to hug the coast and everyone changes over to either ice NW or rain to the city and south and fairly quickly. RGEM is all frozen I-95 N&W...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Can't say for sure but the GFS looks pretty messy. Anyone? Disaster is more like it. Looks like maybe an inch thump then quick changeover to rain. 850's scorch all the way up to Allentown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Can't say for sure but the GFS looks pretty messy. Anyone? similar to 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 RGEM is all frozen I-95 N&W...... The precip maps showed them changing over everyone to mix all the way to Allentown...unless i'm looking at the wrong one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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