Quakertown needs snow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro pasting I-95 with big hit, what a great 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Seems like all the major globals except the GFS have a good hit. I like the Euro being a hit under 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro pasting I-95 with big hit, what a great 12z run I-95 proper is borderline. Still has a large isothermal layer with temps a little above freezing. Would suggest a rain snow line somewhere around there. Kinda like 2/3/2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I-95 proper is borderline. Still has a large isothermal layer with temps a little above freezing. Would suggest a rain snow line somewhere around there. Kinda like 2/3/2014. How does KTTN look? Are they right along the fall line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We are pretty close to this event, not a 240 hr fantasy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I-95 proper is borderline. Still has a large isothermal layer with temps a little above freezing. Would suggest a rain snow line somewhere around there. Kinda like 2/3/2014. Knowing that the Wunder map isn't that great for snowfall, it is painting the heaviest snowfall over central to slightly north NJ. Have to agree it was a great run even if we have to deal with an antecedent airmass as Rainshadow calls it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Knowing that the Wunder map isn't that great for snowfall, it is painting the heaviest snowfall over central to slightly north NJ. Have to agree it was a great run even if we have to deal with an antecedent airmass as Rainshadow calls it. Antecedent just means the air mass already in place when the storm arrives. In this case, its not a great one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We are pretty close to this event, not a 240 hr fantasy storm. Yes but extreme caution as the southern energy is still in the pacific can't trust 2015 models at 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 How does KTTN look? Are they right along the fall line? Temps nudge above freezing a little (i.e. 32.5F). So... yeah, more or less. Tricky tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Antecedent just means the air mass already in place when the storm arrives. In this case, its not a great one. I was kidding him about calling it an old airmass, but I guess NWS mets must stay true to the proper vocabulary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ray, thoughts? To me looking at the larger hits some of the models have, I think its possible some areas go to rain, but switch back to snow afterwards. The 500mb track reminds me a lot of February 5th 2001. Stormvista is very conservative because it only shows snow if the area is 32 degrees or lower. It has philly only getting snow from the initial burst. It is def rain/sleet at 78 hours though. Then maybe switches back on the back end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yes but extreme caution as the southern energy is still in the pacific can't trust 2015 models at 72hrs Agreed, they are having a hard time with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looking at the precip maps thru 90hr. on Eurowx.com it shows total precip of around 0.5-0.6" and total snow around 4-6". This is for all of NJ and the Philly area. Their maps seems pretty conservative but I have found them fairly accurate in the last few events. Not sure if their maps can be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Not sure what this storm has going for it. No cold high to the north, nor 50/50 low, marginal teleconnections, antecedent air mass. Major bust potential. But it has the Euro at 12Z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Not sure what this storm has going for it. No cold high to the north, nor 50/50 low, marginal teleconnections, antecedent air mass. Major bust potential. But it has the Euro at 12Z today. Snows during daylight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Not sure what this storm has going for it. No cold high to the north, nor 50/50 low, marginal teleconnections, antecedent air mass. Major bust potential. But it has the Euro at 12Z today. A loaded Miller A tracking up a warm Atlantic coastline. Bombogenesis is what it has going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The more inland was expected...there's nothing preventing an even more inland / warmer track. So my money's on the continued more warmer / inland track...but still a big hit for interior areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Snows during daylight hours. With marginal temps = tough time sticking to paved surfaces unless mod/heavy rates. Best if would start right before or early evening then end by early or mid morning or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The more inland was expected...there's nothing preventing an even more inland / warmer track. So my money's on the continued more warmer / inland track...but still a big hit for interior areas. The pattern is too progressive and the shortwave doesn't go negative down in the gulf states, that's the reason this won't go much west of this, it doesn't amplify til it's well up the coast and by then it's zooming NE in progressive flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 A loaded Miller A tracking up a warm Atlantic coastline.Bombog enesis is what it has going for it. Check out the latest 500mb flow from GFS. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=078ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_078_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150121+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Not sure what this storm has going for it. No cold high to the north, nor 50/50 low, marginal teleconnections, antecedent air mass. Major bust potential. But it has the Euro at 12Z today. you are right, the high is in a pretty crappy location, the antecedent air mass isn't great, but it isn't a disaster either. Teleconnectors do argue against a big time event, but I've seen setups similar to this produce nice events, especially as you move away from the coast. One thing this storm does have going for it is the time of year, low sun angle, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 you are right, the high is in a pretty crappy location, the antecedent air mass isn't great, but it isn't a disaster either. Teleconnectors do argue against a big time event, but I've seen setups similar to this produce nice events, especially as you move away from the coast. One thing this storm does have going for it is the time of year, low sun angle, etc... Best sun angle is past. We're getting to mid-November sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The pattern is too progressive and the shortwave doesn't go negative down in the gulf states, that's the reason this won't go much west of this, it doesn't amplify til it's well up the coast and by then it's zooming NE in progressive flow sort of has the look of a 2013-14 winter storm, in that regard. that is how we ended up with some nice events absent any real blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Best sun angle is past. We're getting to mid-November sun angle lol, i know you are half kidding, it does seem like every year the amount of the time the sun angle helps us is reduced in people's mind. I'll take it within a month of the solstice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 lol, i know you are half kidding, it does seem like every year the amount of the time the sun angle helps us is reduced in people's mind. I'll take it within a month of the solstice Solstice was a month ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Solstice was a month ago hence the within a month comment.lol. although by the time this storm hits, it will be a month and two days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 hence the within a month comment.lol. although by the time this storm hits, it will be a month and two days! bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM looks like 3-6" Philly area? I'll take it. We aint getting a blizzard out of this one. Possibly the early week system but not this weekend storm. This one is progressive so I think a 3-6" or 4-8" max type storm is likely what we are going to see with this if someone asked me to call it right now for my area (Warminster, central Bucks County). Watch the GFS throw us a crazy qpf bomb now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjdale Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Happy to see you're not punting Wiggum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bradjdale Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Happy to see you're not punting Wiggum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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