yankeex777 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Actually the EC shoves the 0C 850 line all the way up to ABE at the height. Dare I ask for an early prediction, Ray? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Long way to go GGEM UKMET JMA are out to sea as is the one model that had this for days the NAVGEMGgem not ots...it grazes the area. Not necessarily a hit yet not ots either imo.And the nam extrapolated was a hit as well. I would say 50/50 at this point hit vs ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Long way to go GGEM UKMET JMA are out to sea as is the one model that had this for days the NAVGEM I think sometimes people are too black and white with their analysis/terminology. I wouldn't call the canadian out of sea, that to me anyway, implies something different. It is certainly east of the euro and gfs of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 ECM ensembles have come in supportive of a closer to the coast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The warmest the Euro gets at KPHL is 33 degrees at 2M and +1 850. My feeling is that if this run played out exactly as modeled (which it won't) KPHL would be mainly frozen. 1 inch qpf so even losing some to taint this would be a nice snowfall IMO but plenty of time to sort out. "exactly as modeled" would be rain/snow mix for most of the storm at PHL. Remember, "exactly as modeled" means temp profile is correct too. That sounding is, at best, rain/snow mix. Probably more rain. There's a long stretch which is right around freezing so add in the warm nose where its above, and you'll get melted snowflakes long before it gets to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Dare I ask for an early prediction, Ray? Absolutely not. Still highly uncertain. Lots of solutions still on the table. Based on latest modeling, cold air being limited as it is, a big snowstorm along I-95 seems like it would be a bit hard. Nothing is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 "exactly as modeled" would be rain/snow mix for most of the storm at PHL. Remember, "exactly as modeled" means temp profile is correct too. That sounding is, at best, rain/snow mix. Probably more rain. There's a long stretch which is right around freezing so add in the warm nose where its above, and you'll get melted snowflakes long before it gets to the ground. No use arguing details this far out but I would ride my chances with a profile in that range during the height of a nor'easter. There's such little room for error on track that I would still bet against a primarily snow event at KPHL but I love the Euro track/strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 No use arguing details this far out but I would ride my chances with a profile in that range during the height of a nor'easter. There's such little room for error on track that I would still bet against a primarily snow event at KPHL but I love the Euro track/strength Need more cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It looks like the Siberian express is on the way on frame 240 of the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 KInd of expected a little stronger wording for Saturday in the evening forecast package. Still just 40% rain & snow showers for Saturday, up from just partly cloudy in the morning package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 KInd of expected a little stronger wording for Saturday in the evening forecast package. Still just 40% rain & snow showers for Saturday, up from just partly cloudy in the morning package. Well that's a trend anyway. Given the complexities of the pattern this winter so far, I can't really blame them for not jumping in with both feet just yet. And it's a could go either way situation still, both with the track and the precipitation type, for south and east anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 KInd of expected a little stronger wording for Saturday in the evening forecast package. Still just 40% rain & snow showers for Saturday, up from just partly cloudy in the morning package. its Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 KInd of expected a little stronger wording for Saturday in the evening forecast package. Still just 40% rain & snow showers for Saturday, up from just partly cloudy in the morning package. They will be cautious...its too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Dgex is a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not to be a negative Nellie, but the DGEX which is an extension of the NAM which has a hard time inside 60 hrs. Other than than that Hugely positive PNA may be enough to overcome the + NAO. Hope it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 18z GFS holds serve... 90% snow in the city... rain to snow coast... 6-8"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Well that's a trend anyway. Given the complexities of the pattern this winter so far, I can't really blame them for not jumping in with both feet just yet. And it's a could go either way situation still, both with the track and the precipitation type, for south and east anyway. Agreed, thought maybe a 40% chance of rain or snow. Whatever, a lot of time to go with many twists in the road ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Not to be a negative Nellie, but the DGEX which is an extension of the NAM which has a hard time inside 60 hrs. Other than than that Hugely positive PNA may be enough to overcome the + NAO. Hope it works out. this is not being negative, it is being 100percent prudent. The DGEX should not be used in forecasting this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 finally, a storm worth talkin about. even the one for next week = interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 this is not being negative, it is being 100percent prudent. The DGEX should not be used in forecasting this far out.The dgex isn't run under 84 hours so it should certainly be looked at right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The dgex isn't run under 84 hours so it should certainly be looked at right now. Agreed, thought maybe a 40% chance of rain or snow. Whatever, a lot of time to go with many twists in the road ahead. 40 percent seems low given where the models stand right now. doesn't mean anything is a lock, but as it stands now, i think it is more likely than not that it precipitates during the time frame in question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The dgex isn't run under 84 hours so it should certainly be looked at right now. i could be totally wrong about this and will admit if i am, but isn't the dgex kind of a downscaled GFS/NAM hybrid at plus 84 hours, and thus has a low accuracy score? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 i could be totally wrong about this and will admit if i am, but isn't the dgex kind of a downscaled GFS/NAM hybrid at plus 84 hours, and thus has a low accuracy score?Its the extended NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Its the extended NAM From NOAA: . It is produced by running the full 12-km, 60 level, Eta model from forecast hour 78 to forecast hour 192 using lateral boundary conditions (LBC) from the previous cycle of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexhome.ops/ Slightly more technical: The DGEX is initialized by interpolating the 78-h operational NAM forecast to a smaller 12-km domain. A 78-h to 192-h forecast of the NMMB is made (same version that is running in the NAM), using the previous 6-h old GFS forecast for lateral boundary conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM is bad at this range of course.... But.. At 84hrs its a coastal hugger and a rainstorm for most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM is bad at this range of course.... But.. At 84hrs its a coastal hugger and a rainstorm for most... honestly very possible with temps so marginal... not much room for error any more NW even with the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM is bad at this range of course.... But.. At 84hrs its a coastal hugger and a rainstorm for most... Doesn't show any rain for me (or anyone from i95 N&w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's snow to ice at TTN. Very quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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