famartin Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ray - have always loved your very objective perspective, so let me ask: what do you think, especially for the Trenton to Woodbridge corridor (Mercer/Middlesex Counties near I-95)? Lots of people quoting the HRRR as not changing over for NYC metro until close to 6" have fallen. Looking at the temps and the radar showing things starting off as rain in South Jersey 10-20 miles SE of Philly (where I grew up, actually) makes me a bit nervous for getting more than an inch or two of snow in the Edison area. Others have probably pointed this out, but those HRRR graphics are not very good, they count sleet as snow (so 0.01" of liquid that falls as sleet is counted as 0.1" of snow, etc). I would not trust them. That having been said, the new NAM, while roaring the warm air north to around TTN for sure, makes it isothermal at 32 in NYC for much of the storm still, so maybe they will get lucky. Right now the scales seem to be tipping toward the low end of the range for the Delaware Valley I-95 corridor, but maybe further north it will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 weder as we know it is not an exact science....plus I have seen huge differences over short distances in these type of situations.....either way quite a bit of winter weather on the way between the 2 winter events over the next 3 days and then the cold and the potential big one following. For those who like winter I think the next couple weeks will have plenty of folks interested. Enjoy! Paul I hear ya chescoShould be a fun one to watch, regardless of totals.I typically don't throw down a number, but feel like a snowblower could be in order for the cleanup tomorrow.Bought it and used it on that thanksgiving 4" slop.Just need an excuse to fire her upCall it wishfull thinking, call it a wishcast, I'm all in.Well... As much as 5" can be all in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ray - what are you thinking out my way? Always interested in a professionals opinion ( though I know this is not your forecast area or focus? I am not seeing that much snow.....but what do i know! Others have probably pointed this out, but those HRRR graphics are not very good, they count sleet as snow (so 0.01" of liquid that falls as sleet is counted as 0.1" of snow, etc). I would not trust them. That having been said, the new NAM, while roaring the warm air north to around TTN for sure, makes it isothermal at 32 in NYC for much of the storm still, so maybe they will get lucky. Right now the scales seem to be tipping toward the low end of the range for the Delaware Valley I-95 corridor, but maybe further north it will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Others have probably pointed this out, but those HRRR graphics are not very good, they count sleet as snow (so 0.01" of liquid that falls as sleet is counted as 0.1" of snow, etc). I would not trust them. That having been said, the new NAM, while roaring the warm air north to around TTN for sure, makes it isothermal at 32 in NYC for much of the storm still, so maybe they will get lucky. Right now the scales seem to be tipping toward the low end of the range for the Delaware Valley I-95 corridor, but maybe further north it will be different. That's exactly what a couple of folks just said in the NYC forum, that the NAM kept NYC in snow for up to 6". I know I'm 25 miles SW of Manhattan, but hoping we hold onto snow/sleet close to as long as NYC does. Sounds like I might be right on the edge. Also, I don't mind sleet at all and don't really care about "inches" as much as total precip that falls as snow/sleet - just hate rain. In a perfect world, we'd all be measuring snow/sleet in melted LE anyway, since mass, to me is far more indicative of the impact of a storm than depth. Sure, I love seeing a pretty, low density snowfall, but I'm ok with 2" of 10:1 snow, followed by 1" of 3:1 sleet, which is equivalent to 5" of 10:1 snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 That's exactly what a couple of folks just said in the NYC forum, that the NAM kept NYC in snow for up to 6". I know I'm 25 miles SW of Manhattan, but hoping we hold onto snow/sleet close to as long as NYC does. Sounds like I might be right on the edge. Also, I don't mind sleet at all and don't really care about "inches" as much as total precip that falls as snow/sleet - just hate rain. In a perfect world, we'd all be measuring snow/sleet in melted LE anyway, since mass, to me is far more indicative of the impact of a storm than depth. Sure, I love seeing a pretty, low density snowfall, but I'm ok with 2" of 10:1 snow, followed by 1" of 3:1 sleet, which is equivalent to 5" of 10:1 snow. I agree - the dense stuff has staying power too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ray - what are you thinking out my way? Always interested in a professionals opinion ( though I know this is not your forecast area or focus? I am not seeing that much snow.....but what do i know! Definitely would appear that you will get the warm air aloft and it will hurt your totals towards the lower end various ranges.... IDK, 1-3, 2-4 out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 ..deleted my post by accident. but yea, this is for Trenton at 3am. Even this far south, it's at freezing or below through ALL layers. Which would indicate a heavy snow thumping overnight...and most of the mixing won't occur until around sunrise. should be a nice show, for the ones staying up tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Did it help? I can go on if there's something you're not sure about. Yes it did. I'll start comparing it to other radar maps to get a better idea of where the rain/snow line is. I remember last year you were able to pick out where snow was changing to or mixing with sleet by using the coefficient setting and that's why I asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Yes it did. I'll start comparing it to other radar maps to get a better idea of where the rain/snow line is. I remember last year you were able to pick out where snow was changing to or mixing with sleet by using the coefficient setting and that's why I asked. OK good. You can see now how the yellows are falling back to the south and we are hearing reports of places that mixed or changed over seeing more snow coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 0z NAM has it down to a 9 hour storm, lost the ccb wraparound for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 0z GFS gets some CCB action into SEPA tomorrow morning/afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 skew-t's never lie.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.