famartin Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I was a little lost after the break-up But this is home... I also like that ray is calling for 4 in his backyard, and I can't recall him ever busting too low... I was just saying the EC had 4. My actual range is 1-4. So, they'll get at least 1 (though the other day I had 1-2 and they got a half) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not such great NWS office collaboration, as often happens along I-95 between Middlesex County in the Mt. Holly CWA and Union/SI in the Upton CWA. 1-2" for my area in northern Middlesex, adjacent to 3-4" amounts immediately to our north and east and you'd figure we'd get at least what SI gets, given that we're further inland at the same latitude. They do have 0.10-0.25" of freezing rain falling in our area, though, which would surprise me. http://www.weather.gov/phi/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 that's a fair amt of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 That's not apples to apples - that is Mt Holly's AM map - not the new one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sorry bout that now its updated That's not apples to apples - that is Mt Holly's AM map - not the new one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 18z GFS looks snowier on stormvista, 12z showed practically 0, 18z has philly in the 2-4" range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Surprised no WSW upgrades for N&W RAP HRRRRRRRR Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 18z GFS looks snowier on stormvista, 12z showed practically 0, 18z has philly in the 2-4" range Not sure about that, it actually looks warmer to me... it has 850 at PHL +1 at 0Z and 6Z. Based on the GFS, it probably wouldn't be pure snow to start, at least snow sleet mix if not plain sleet or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Not sure about that, it actually looks warmer to me... it has 850 at PHL +1 at 0Z and 6Z. Based on the GFS, it probably wouldn't be pure snow to start, at least snow sleet mix if not plain sleet or rain. I'm just going off the snow accumulation map on stormvista which is generally anti-snow biased...Not saying you're wrong, but there has to be a reason it shows more snow...Maybe more precip before the changeover? 12z: 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 That's not apples to apples - that is Mt Holly's AM map - not the new one Sorry bout that now its updated No sweat - I've noticed some very funky behavior with those maps, in which I've double checked the timestamp, copied and pasted onto a post here and then noticed that the older version was copied or at least what I saw - wonder if it's cookies or something like that. On the NYC page, the graphics are available in two places and I've seen them not be the same timestamp. I just wish they'd have a very prominent link or icon right on the homepage of the site (plenty of space to the right of the CWA map), as there's probably nothing people look for more than those precip maps, especially snow. It's annoying to have to make multiple clicks on obscure locations to get to what's critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Latest RGEM keeps the rain and mix out of upper Bucks. Also latest short range models are keying bulls eye snow amounts in upper SEPA counties, Berks and Lehigh. Giddyup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like I am right on the fence between snow and mix where Im at. Good luck NW friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like I am right on the fence between snow and mix where Im at. Good luck NW friends! Like myself you'll probably get 2" or so of snow...then ping...ping mixed w/snow...then ping...ping mixed wfrz /rain....then a little of all frz rain then all rain by 3-5am. Basically slop... 33.9F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like I am right on the fence between snow and mix where Im at. Good luck NW friends! I used to live in warmister years ago. I have seen it snow in your area and mix/rain down in willow grove. You get weather similar to doylestown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Like myself you'll probably get 2" or so of snow...then ping...ping mixed w/snow...then ping...ping mixed wfrz /rain....then a little of all frz rain then all rain by 3-5am. Basically slop... 33.9F Thats what im thinking right now also. A slushy mess tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I used to live in warmister years ago. I have seen it snow in your area and mix/rain down in willow grove. You get weather simiar to doylestown. Cool! Im relatively new to the area. Grew up in Secane, Delaware County where we always rained in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Optimistic with this one happening overnight. Would really like to fire up the snowblower. That said, I think 5" in the NW territories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It seems like TTN is always in that mix zone. I can see 2-4 or 0-2 with alot of sleet or ice. Tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 It seems like TTN is always in that mix zone. I can see 2-4 or 0-2 with alot of sleet or ice. Tough forecast. Trenton has never been ground zero for a snow event. just sayin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ray, Little OT but since you use the COD site I was wondering if you would answer a couple of questions. Is there any way to distinguish rain from snow and what do the yellows mean when using the Correlation Coefficient setting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Trenton has never been ground zero for a snow event. just sayin.. Probably the closest to being the bulls-eye was 2/4/1995 when I had 14 and Princeton had 16 and everyone around us had less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Don't look at the new NAM, the warm air absolutely surges on it, at least for I-95. If the NAM is right, my parents will be lucky to get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Not too sure about that wederwarrior....we are usually mighty close in weather being only about 20 miles from each other.....I think IP/ZR will make that verify on the low end of the current forecast. Snowing here now but.....thinking you may need to be a bit further NW then you and I if you want significant snow. Optimistic with this one happening overnight.Would really like to fire up the snowblower.That said, I think 5" in the NW territories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ray, Little OT but since you use the COD site I was wondering if you would answer a couple of questions. Is there any way to distinguish rain from snow and what do the yellows mean when using the Correlation Coefficient setting? http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12 Just looking at the CC product, it can be difficult, you kinda have to know in advance where things are going to set up. Right now I can see an obvious snow to rain changeover with that rather narrow yellow line surrounded by reds in south Jersey, with a broader area of mixing further west, though that is likely due to the radar beam being higher in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Don't look at the new NAM, the warm air absolutely surges on it, at least for I-95. If the NAM is right, my parents will be lucky to get an inch. looking at the maps provided. 25 nw seeem to be ground zero for mix/snow for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ray, I agree I think the NAM is spot on here....I don't think we will see many reports anywhere near the high end of current forecasts. Wxsim has been mighty sure this all goes over to non-snow mighty quick. I doubt the Wxsims current forecast of 2" before a significant ice event will verify.....but again I leave it to the professionals like you....I have been wrong too many times to count!! Don't look at the new NAM, the warm air absolutely surges on it, at least for I-95. If the NAM is right, my parents will be lucky to get an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Not too sure about that wederwarrior....we are usually mighty close in weather being only about 20 miles from each other.....I think IP/ZR will make that verify on the low end of the current forecast. Snowing here now but.....thinking you may need to be a bit further NW then you and I if you want significant snow.I hear ya chescoShould be a fun one to watch, regardless of totals. I typically don't throw down a number, but feel like a snowblower could be in order for the cleanup tomorrow. Bought it and used it on that thanksgiving 4" slop. Just need an excuse to fire her up Call it wishfull thinking, call it a wishcast, I'm all in. Well... As much as 5" can be all in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12 Just looking at the CC product, it can be difficult, you kinda have to know in advance where things are going to set up. Right now I can see an obvious snow to rain changeover with that rather narrow yellow line surrounded by reds in south Jersey, with a broader area of mixing further west, though that is likely due to the radar beam being higher in the atmosphere. Thanks for the reply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Thanks for the reply Did it help? I can go on if there's something you're not sure about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Don't look at the new NAM, the warm air absolutely surges on it, at least for I-95. If the NAM is right, my parents will be lucky to get an inch. Ray - have always loved your very objective perspective, so let me ask: what do you think, especially for the Trenton to Woodbridge corridor (Mercer/Middlesex Counties near I-95)? Lots of people quoting the HRRR as not changing over for NYC metro until close to 6" have fallen. Looking at the temps and the radar showing things starting off as rain in South Jersey 10-20 miles SE of Philly (where I grew up, actually) makes me a bit nervous for getting more than an inch or two of snow in the Edison area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.