lswx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Mt Holly's thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 On 1/21/2015 at 9:53 PM, lswx said: Mt Holly's thoughts Wrong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 On 1/21/2015 at 9:58 PM, famartin said: Wrong storm. Look at dates on the bottom of the graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 On 1/21/2015 at 9:58 PM, famartin said: Wrong storm. I think that's correct. TWC (I know a joke) has a preliminary 6+ pretty much where you see 4-6" on this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is what I see (attaching it so it actually is definitely what I see). What do you see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 On 1/21/2015 at 10:10 PM, famartin said: This is what I see (attaching it so it actually is definitely what I see). What do you see? Holy crap. How did that happened? That wasn't it. There was a map/strip of 4-6" just N and W of Philly heading NE up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lswx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 On 1/21/2015 at 10:18 PM, Birds~69 said: Holy crap. How did that happened? That wasn't it. There was a map/strip of 4-6" just N and W of Philly heading NE up the coast. Sorry When posted it was correct. It was posted at 453PM for 12Z Friday - 0Z Sunday. They must have taken it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 On 1/21/2015 at 10:43 PM, lswx said: Sorry When posted it was correct. It was posted at 453PM for 12Z Friday - 0Z Sunday. They must have taken it down. Moving forward...best thing to do is save the image then upload it w/your post. No biggie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GEFS are east like the gfs op...ruh roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Someone saved the map... here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/21/2015 at 11:18 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS are east like the gfs op...ruh roh why is this is a surprise i would expect the ensembles to follow suit. I wouldn't start with the ruh roh nonsense until some of the globals trend east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 12:22 AM, famartin said: Someone saved the map... here it is. post-70-0-60675800-1421885921.jpg Yeah...that's it. Tried to look in my cache but too many files and didn't have the time to search. Here's the TWC at 8pm. Their thoughts are about the same as far as location but w/slightly higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 With temps and track uncertainty, both of those maps look very good for first calls imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 The SREF plumes mean is showing 3.03" total snowfall for Philly proper Saturday. Looks like a lot of mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 1:52 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: The SREF plumes mean is showing 3.03" total snowfall for Philly proper Saturday. Looks like a lot of mixing issues. That's a lot of qpf, wonder what that means for the far N&W suburbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 2:05 AM, tcutter said: That's a lot of qpf, wonder what that means for the far N&W suburbs? No, that's 3.03" snow, not liquid equivalent. Btw, the low is definitely not ots on the SREFs as if we didn't know by the mixing issues: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 NAM comes in looking much better at 500mb and screams West of 18z yet is East at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I know it's early and we have nowhere near a consensus but I am thinking this is mainly a 3-6" type of storm where I'm located. Avg winter storm for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 2:52 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM comes in looking much better at 500mb and screams West of 18z yet is East at the surface. Nam looks like ass Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 0z GFS .........................coating to 1" in SEPA 0z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 3:03 AM, anthonyweather said: Nam looks like ass Sounds like you disagree w/Ralph...lol. Give me 2-4" / 3-6" and I'll sign right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I don't post much but I don't get the lack of precip shown by gfs and even nam to an extent, the water temps above normal off the coast is should provide fuel to blow this storm up, might be rain or snow either way I would have thought wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 4:01 AM, RedSky said: 0z GFS .........................coating to 1" in SEPA 0z so far Yea. The gfs upgrade will either be a bust or a win.Figure 48 hrs from a possible storm. Interested to see if the model finally earns some respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 4:01 AM, RedSky said: 0z GFS .........................coating to 1" in SEPA 0z so far So more than today...not bad. Screw staying up for the Euro...I may be in a mental clinic soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 4:08 AM, Birds~69 said: So more than today...not bad. Screw staying up for the Euro...I may be in a mental clinic soon. Reserve a room for me before it fills up UKMET is a moderate hit for our area decent SECS NAVGEM is back to being a hit GGEM more SE but still probably SECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 0z Euro calls up the GFS and says your the king then promptly off the Ben Franklin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 6:16 AM, RedSky said: 0z Euro calls up the GFS and says your the king then promptly off the Ben Franklin So you're saying it's like the GFS... what does it show QPF and temp wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 On 1/22/2015 at 6:30 AM, delijoe said: So you're saying it's like the GFS... what does it show QPF and temp wise? Approx .3" QPF in SEPA On the bright side for many that is the biggest storm this winter to date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Our new snowfall forecast map blame me if you must for forecasting this underwhelming amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That looks fine. Storms looking worse and worse. White flag on stand by Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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