Mitchell Gaines Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 A sneaky NW trend has been noted with a coastal low. The models have been gradually gaining more amplitude with the feature allowing for a storm hit on the 00z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 7:25 AM, Mitchell Gaines said: A sneaky NW trend has been noted with a coastal low. The models have been gradually gaining more amplitude with the feature allowing for a storm hit on the 00z ECMWF. What's the chance of this NW trend to continue? The temps are marginal for I95 as it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 9:22 AM, delijoe said: What's the chance of this NW trend to continue? The temps are marginal for I95 as it is... It probably can only get a bit more NW, there is a low diving SE through Canada acting as a kicker, I think as long as the system is deep, if it tracks offshore everyone except the usual places in coastal SE NJ would be snow but there is still 2 days probably till we get this figured out. This is by far the most legitimate threat of the year due it being inside 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This Euro map has my full attention....kudos to the NAVGEM tho the past several days sniffing this out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nam has a 50/50 setup at 500mb as well as a nice confluence zone and energy diving down into the trough. Really nice setup as mean trof is trying to tilt negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Rain, snow, or mix...this has the makings of a really deep system with sustained strong winds, serious coastal beach erosion, and tidal flooding. Rest of 12z going to be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z GFS is a hit for the area. Total qpf near 2" AC, .75" SEPA, Allentown .35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Temps are really close across the whole area. Above freezing at the surface but 850s are below freezing across most of the area. With a deepening system, it may be able to pull more cold air in, but I'm not sure the GFS shows all snow for central New Jersey at least. S NJ definitely is rain to start.. Edit: to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 4:24 PM, RedSky said: 12z GFS is a hit for the area. Total qpf near 2" AC, .75" SEPA, Allentown .35" Yea, I need a NW trend still. snow magnet ready Hoping that this is the usual GFS SE bias at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I'm in. Temps are marginal for TTN but i imagine it can pull down some cold air once the CCB starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I dont think the NW trend is finished on the GFS just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 JB agrees with you Ralph - check out vendor thread for his 12z comments On 1/20/2015 at 4:46 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: I dont think the NW trend is finished on the GFS just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 fyi, i don't think pay site images like SV are allowed to be posted unless its was on social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 JB agrees that a nw trend is not done yet...what a surprise lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 5:00 PM, Quakertown needs snow said: fyi, i don't think pay site images like SV are allowed to be posted unless its was on social media. I think their maps are fair game except the ECM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Buckle up ECM is NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Euro big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:18 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Euro big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 BIG hit but mix issues I95 S&E sounds like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Through 114 PHL : 8" ABE : 5" TIGHT GRADIENTS NORTH OF ABE (Based off snow map, Not including mixing) Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:24 PM, anthonyweather said: Through 66 PHL : 3" ABE : 2" (Based off snow map, Not including mixing) Sent from my iPhone That would be from the clipper right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:27 PM, RedSky said: That would be from the clipper right? Edited, times were mismatched on my phone. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 No stats yet but ECM is a large event for SEPA a solid 6-10" deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:22 PM, RedSky said: BIG hit but mix issues I95 S&E sounds like Are we talking mixing for the city/inland or just the coasts? The 12z GFS was mostly snow for i95 and NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 PHL is a mushy mess. Whatever snow maps show you should slice it by half if not by 3/4. This is for the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:36 PM, famartin said: PHL is a mushy mess. Whatever snow maps show you should slice it by half if not by 3/4. This is for the airport. I95 mix issues for sure, burbs just N&W are good. Not that it matters long way to go more changes for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:40 PM, RedSky said: I95 mix issues for sure, burbs just N&W are good. Not that it matters long way to go more changes for sure Actually the EC shoves the 0C 850 line all the way up to ABE at the height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:40 PM, RedSky said: I95 mix issues for sure, burbs just N&W are good. Not that it matters long way to go more changes for sure Correct me if I'm wrong, but because of the kicker low to the north it can only come so much NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 On 1/20/2015 at 6:46 PM, delijoe said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but because of the kicker low to the north it can only come so much NW... Long way to go GGEM UKMET JMA are out to sea as is the one model that had this for days the NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jb1979 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The warmest the Euro gets at KPHL is 33 degrees at 2M and +1 850. My feeling is that if this run played out exactly as modeled (which it won't) KPHL would be mainly frozen. 1 inch qpf so even losing some to taint this would be a nice snowfall IMO but plenty of time to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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