IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 With this pattern a closer in track would present p-type issues for the coast. The 0z Euro had the 850's and surface temps above freezing for Long Island while much of the precip was falling since the SE Ridge was stronger on the 0Z run. But a further east track than the 0z wouldn't have much precip anyway. Can I ask why you and NegNao continue to ignore the dynamics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 They are still running two sets of GFS ensembles. The newer GEFS mean run off of what was the PGFS is stronger and closer to the coast. The 2P5 selection? I don't think thats the parallel suite for the new T574 ensembles, but they are pretty much on top of the regular ensembles if you superimpose the images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Did the 0z Euro which I am referring to have 850's and surface temperatures above freezing over Long Island for the first half of the storm? Why are you taking temps verbatim on a 120hr op run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Because we are discussing model output in this thread. With the progressive +AO pattern any change back to snow would probably happen as the storm was rapidly pulling away without time to really sit in place and dump for the coastal sections. I mean this in as friendly of a manner as possible. It's been so long since we had a solid threat that you're looking for the smallest reasons as to why it won't happen. A storm of this magnitude would generate its own cold air. You might lose the first hour or two to rain or mix but then all models show the strong dynamics taking over and temps crashing, all the way to the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Something is wrong with the 12z GGEM, it hasn't run yet on any source that I've found and should have by now. The Euro starts in 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Fotr the next 36 hours the only concern should be : trends from the GFS & the Euro (Ukmet and GG to lesser degree). So long as the structure continues to improve, the track and interaction between northern and southern streams continue to blossom then we are sitting pretty 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Something is wrong with the 12z GGEM, it hasn't run yet on any source that I've found and should have by now. The Euro starts in 15 minutes. Its not man enough to handle the 945mb bomb its trying to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Why were you making statements earlier about it being all snow at the coast in the first place? I think you both make plausible points but leaning towards yanksfan's take if the storm takes shape the way the Euro showed last night (or even 30 miles west). Its a close call for sure at coast like most of our larger storms. The storm is still over 4 days out so I would throw up a caution making definitive statements in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Why aren't you taking your own advice about speculating about snow so far out then? Because I've never seen a storm track inside the benchmark in January that was rapidly deepening give this area rain. I guess it's happened once or twice but I can't recall any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Welp guess the CMC is not gona update at all....I don't get it. Not one hour has updated yet. It's running as we speak, albeit very slowly from all the weenies attempting to hack it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Why were you making statements earlier about it being all snow at the coast in the first place? The reason why LI was 33- 34 was because at 0Z only .04 managed to fall on the Island. The 0Z OP was not a crush job , so the cooling aloft never makes it to the island . .8 got to Monmouth County . On Long Island 850s 114 - 2 120 0 126 - 1 Thats not Rain on a NE wind .( At least not yet ) . 12Z running now , may make all these points irrelevant . I see your concern , but I think this gets cleared up shortly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Lets see what the next few runs of the Euro actually show and take it from there. Yup that's all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 WPC ALONG THE EAST COAST...THE UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE DEPTH OF THECYCLOGENESIS EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE AND ITSASSOCIATED DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THE WESTERN PERIPHERYOF THIS DEFORMATION (OUR SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY)...WILL LIKELY BETHE FOCAL POINT FOR WINTER P-TYPE CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. THESECOND IMPULSE---(OUR NORTHERN SYSTEM) IS A DEPTH CONCERN ACROSSTHE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE MID-OHIO VALLEY...THEN A 'STRUCTURAL'CHALLENGE ONCE THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THEMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THERE IS ROOM FOR SECONDARYCYCLOGENESIS---AND CONCERN...THIS SYSTEM WILL RE-ENERGIZE OFF THEDELMARVA...BEFORE EJECTION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not that it matters but the gem ensembles are well west of 0z even though the ggem hasn't run yet haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not that it matters but the gem ensembles are well west of 0z even though the ggem hasn't run yet haha. How do the ensembles come out before the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The northern stream vort over CO is already starting to interact with the southern stream energy at 27hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's much faster with the southern stream energy allowing for a quicker phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not that it matters but the gem ensembles are well west of 0z even though the ggem hasn't run yet haha.Lol that's cheating ! But good news. I'm personally in the "if it comes further west, it'll still be snow" camp. I have a hard time believing that it will be primarily rain with a track closer. I would think it'd be more favorable for us in this case, with a bombing low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Strong phase over the four corners at 48hrs. 00z was still disjointed at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Strong phase over the four corners at 48hrs. 00z was still disjointed at this hour. A phase over the 4 corners. Certainly off to a good start. I can see with 206 members monitering thread that things, as the kiddies say, 'bout to get real' ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Large system taking shape over the TX/LA coast. Looks like 1012mb near Houston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Major players in the west... Just need to see how the clipper evolves near Newfoundland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think it's going to close off at H5 over the TX panhandle, partially closed contour at hour 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Indeed, H5 closes off over TX at hour 66. Large storm riding the gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The trough axis is roughly 50-100 miles West of it's 00z position through 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think it's going to close off at H5 over the TX panhandle, partially closed contour at hour 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Just as amped up if not more than 00z. Surface low near the Western panhandle of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The trailing energy over the upper plains is slower and weaker, good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I am hearing the JMA was ots....any confirmation on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 At 90hrs the trough axis is considerably sharper than 00z. Surface low on the Carolina coast and precip almost into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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