Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hr 96 dca and Balt getting crushed..snow up to Ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Trough is going negative tilt much quicker than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hour 99 near OBX, precip overspreading the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hr 99 snow up to HPN...mod up to Phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hour 102 heavy precip up to about I-78. BL is a bit warm but 850's are cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hr 102 paste bomb 994 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 988mb 125 miles SE of ACY. Most of the real heavy stuff staying offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hr 105 CCB ownage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 984mb south of the benchmark. That trailing shortwave is still kicking it East at the last minute. The stronger dynamics mostly stay offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 988mb 125 miles SE of ACY. Most of the real heavy stuff staying offshore. No the CCB is overhead at 102-108 this is a huge hit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The city is barely 0.50"+ just eyeballing it, with a lot more just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 No the CCB is overhead at 102-108 this is a huge hit.. Look at the total QPF. It's not amounting to as much as you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 City is almost 0.75 more east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wow on this run.... WOOF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 850mb 0 line collapses towards the low center because of the dynamics at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Look at the total QPF. It's not amounting to as much as you think. There is more to maps then qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 972 just E of the BM . It`s a great look 4 days out on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 I disagree that it's a huge hit. It's a nice hit, I think you would still want this to come more NW. The really strong dynamics just graze the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Look at the total QPF. It's not amounting to as much as you think.I wouldn't take the QPF verbatim and run. With the dynamics and the look aloft, the model seems to be up to its old tricks with regards to spitting out QPF. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 There is more to maps then qpf I realize that, but you go from say 0.50"+ in six hour rates to nearly double that 20 miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The cut off honestly reminds me a bit of Boxing Day, but a bit more N to S instead of W to E. 0.75"+ to 0.10"+ over a 50 mile stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I disagree that it's a huge hit. It's a nice hit, I think you would still want this to come more NW. The really strong dynamics just graze the coast. 0.50 is a huge hit this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The cut off honestly reminds me a bit of Boxing Day, but a bit more N to S instead of W to E. 0.75"+ to 0.10"+ over a 50 mile stretch. So are you saying C. NJ coast receives more than NYC? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The reason this kicks east at the last minute is the trailing vort max over KY. That never phases in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 So are you saying C. NJ coast receives more than NYC? Rossi Precip wise? Yes, ACY is almost 2" of water, more than double NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 What a gorgeous look. Mid-level temperatures collapse towards the storm, and the thermal gradient increases as the storm approaches our latitude. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/MSLP850500300gfs12108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Don't be surprised if the Euro is even more tucked in and a tick warmer than 0z if the GFS is this amped now. Warmest KNYC is 32- 33 . Living at 40 N on the coast prevents me from ever being shocked .. I LIKE THIS ONE . Not going to lie . Bombing from OBX to CC gets your winds NE . 850 s are cold enough 700s are cold . BL is fine . This has a chance to rally into something better than modeled . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I disagree that it's a huge hit. It's a nice hit, I think you would still want this to come more NW. The really strong dynamics just graze the coast. Trend is good on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 What a gorgeous look. Mid-level temperatures collapse towards the storm, and the thermal gradient increases as the storm approaches our latitude. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/MSLP850500300gfs12108.gif This graphic is a great illustration of what I was talking about. While the immediate coast is getting into the moderate dynamics, the real juice is just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Surface and mid-level winds turn due northerly...no temperature issues here. This is what a deep cyclone can do; the ageostrophic component gets stronger and any initial SW flow rapidly turns towards a colder flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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