Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That slp north of the GL has me scratching my head. Other than keeping the system east (not a cutter) can it help us in any other way or just hurt us potentially? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The reason for the stronger SE ridge is because you have a more amplified system pumping up heights ahead of it.This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 That slp north of the GL has me scratching my head. Other than keeping the system east (not a cutter) can it help us in any other way or just hurt us potentially? I think its too far away to phase in, its way more likely to act as a kicker and kick this out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think its too far away to phase in, its way more likely to act as a kicker and kick this out to sea.Thanks. Pretty much what I thought.Could that GL low zip east and pull a front thru the Northeast behind it just prior to start of storm? Aside from dynamic cooling with bombogenesis I was curious of alternatives to get caa prior to start of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think its too far away to phase in, its way more likely to act as a kicker and kick this out to sea. my biggest concern... I can see this affecting the southern mid-atlantic before getting kicked OTS but WAY to early to make that call right now.. only sensible thing to do is monitor it for a few days, and then we can start looking at track/temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The +AO is the reason that an amplified system is pumping the SE Ridge in the first place. A strong -AO would keep the SE Ridge suppressed like we see in our biggest snowstorms. Without the stronger SE ridge nothing would be stopping this from exiting stage right off the GA coast. I really don't understand the concern here over precip types. Has the Winter been so awful that people are forgetting about dynamic cooling? Some models deepen this over 20mb in under 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 At least by pumping up the SE ridge you're slowing down the flow enough that the system has room to amplify. Otherwise you have a positively tilted trough and it's a snowstorm for the Carolinas and nobody else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 At least by pumping up the SE ridge you're slowing down the flow enough that the system has room to amplify. Otherwise you have a positively tilted trough and it's a snowstorm for the Carolinas and nobody else.Exactly....I will take my chances with a start as a mix or rain to get the reward at the end with this bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 12Z NAM using its usual bias at 84 hours would lead me to believe the track should be too far east for us as of now...I'd expect near misses to continue to be the dominant idea on the GFS./Euro and ensembles today.didnt look bad to me. It looks like its ready to ride up the coast. Look we have a positive NAO and we might still be able to pull it off because of a strong southeast ridge. Hopefully models don't start trending backwards from now on. It's looking really good right now especially having euro on board and even the 6z GFS moved north. Patience everyone we may get a blizzard this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Exactly....I will take my chances with a start as a mix or rain to get the reward at the end with this bomb. Everyone will snow and snow hard EVENTUALLY if the more amped Euro ENS solutions which keep the track east of us verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 You don't understand the concern with P-Types since you live in an area which can do better in marginal situations than the coast. 4 days out from this storm. Lets just see if the storm stays on the models before worrying about the precip type. I don't think the coast should worry about precip type unless it hugs the coast or goes inland if the storm has a really low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 You don't understand the concern over P-Types since you live in an area which can do better in marginal situations than the coast. You're just paranoid. Nobody is going to rain with a sub 990mb low in this setup. Temps are plenty cold aloft so you have lots of room to dynamically cool under the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Everyone will snow and snow hard EVENTUALLY if the more amped Euro ENS solutions which keep the track east of us verify.Yes thats what I was saying. Some areas could be slop or something with the overrunning but when it gets cranking and a ccb sets up things turn white in a hurry.No sense worrying about this just yet it is too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's a catch 22 at the coast. Either the storm stays further east and the precip is light or the storm comes further west and brings in warmer temperatures. Not in this setup. You want a bomb tucked into the coast so that you can get maximum dynamic cooling. Your only concerns are that the stronger dynamics stay offshore or an inland track which looks higly unlikely at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 You're just paranoid. Nobody is going to rain with a sub 990mb low in this setup. Temps are plenty cold aloft so you have lots of room to dynamically cool under the CCB.honestly I don't know who this guy is blue wave but if you have a strong low like that there's no chance in hell for rain. You may get rain in Cape cod! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 But you could rain at the onset with the Waa stuff for an hour or something as the antecedent stale airmass gets replaced by dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's a catch 22 at the coast. Either the storm stays further east and the precip is light or the storm comes further west and brings in warmer temperatures. I am not saying it can`t evolve into that . There is enough precip as of now on the NAVGEM and enough on the Euro that are in the cold sector . 987 TO 968 in 12 hours is as classic CCB as you are going to see and " should " overcome a bad BL . 700 s are Minus 5 so if you get that kind of vertical motion , you will collapse the cold layer right to the surface . Could it rain at the onset , yes and if it come further N it probably does . But the next question is does it turn into a quasi BLIZZARD with lightning and thunder as a 19 MB drop in 12 hours constitutes a dynamic system . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Its a moot point right now anyway lets let 12z roll and make sure we have a bombing coastal still and this doesnt head back ots or just too far off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 There could definitely be some rain or taint to start, but with all of the dynamics involved from the insane PVA and a rapidly deepening cyclone just off the coast, the column would definitely cool enough for a significant snow event as any tainted precip would change over to snow. January 27, 2011 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 a strong low doesn't guarantee a strong CCB. mid level baroclinicity on the north side of the system is weak and that means weaker mid level frontogenesis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Maybe we just need to split this into 2 forums NYC and Long Island and give you guys NNJ and interior SE NY since you don't seem to worry much about p-types for coastal sections. maybe you guys would be more happy forming a new group with philly and some of the interior folks. It's too early to be worried about p-types regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Good post.... I agree. There could definitely be some rain or taint to start, but with all of the dynamics involved from the insane PVA and a rapidly deepening cyclone just off the coast, the column would definitely cool enough for a significant snow event as any tainted precip would change over to snow. January 27, 2011 comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 There could definitely be some rain or taint to start, but with all of the dynamics involved from the insane PVA and a rapidly deepening cyclone just off the coast, the column would definitely cool enough for a significant snow event as any tainted precip would change over to snow. January 27, 2011 comes to mind. That storm was amazing. Had snow to rain to thundersnow. 4 inches in the morning and 14 at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 a strong low doesn't guarantee a strong CCB. mid level baroclinicity on the north side of the system is weak and that means weaker mid level frontogenesis I do see your point about the weaker thermal gradient on the north side, but I think assuming we get the jet orientation and the PVA streaming up the coast, that will compensate and allow for plenty of synoptic lifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 There could definitely be some rain or taint to start, but with all of the dynamics involved from the insane PVA and a rapidly deepening cyclone just off the coast, the column would definitely cool enough for a significant snow event as any tainted precip would change over to snow. January 27, 2011 comes to mind. Happy to take 19 inches as that one provided Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 posted this in another thread, seems like it could be beneficial here too: 1) don't look at temps this far out2) don't lock onto any solution this far out3) don't speak in absolutes this far out4) don't look at the NAM this far out5) don't buy the hype this far out6) DO enjoy having something to actually track7) DO remember the pattern this winterif all of the above are followed, there should be minimal disappointment either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The similarities are pretty striking. Don't take analogs literally, though. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2011/us0126.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/f84.gif The one difference is the thermal gradient that forky alluded to, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 12z GFS is a lot more amped up than 06z through 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hour 90, low near Charleston, SC. snow up to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hour 96 near Wilmington, NC, precip almost up to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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