PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Correction it`s a 19MB in 12 hours . There is wind and lightning with that if it happens and a Blizzard for someone with those winds . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Correction it`s a 19MB in 12 hours . There is wind and lightning with that if it happens and a Blizzard for someone with those winds . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 IMO for this pattern coming up including the clipper tomorrow its a good idea to pay more attention to the ensemble mean runs then the OP runs for obvious reasons.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Correction it`s a 19MB in 12 hours . There is wind and lightning with that if it happens and a Blizzard for someone with those winds . Wow sounds like a heck of a storm to me. And yea it does suck living at the coast sometimes. I just hope this trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I like the setup better for the potential next week as it currently stands versus this threat. Everything is so marginal for this one that there is so much that can go poorly for the area between now and day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I like the setup better for the potential next week as it currently stands versus this threat. Everything is so marginal for this one that there is so much that can go poorly for the area between now and day 4. did you stop to consider how the weekend storm may effect the potential storm following that ? Think you are getting ahead of yourself ...........things can go poorly after the weekend storm just as easily........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 IMO for this pattern coming up including the clipper tomorrow its a good idea to pay more attention to the ensemble mean runs then the OP runs for obvious reasons.......... For an organized system like the weekend yes, for the clipper they sucked almost as bad as the Ops did, they swung 500 miles total in the last day and a half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 did you stop to consider how the weekend storm may effect the potential storm following that ? Think you are getting ahead of yourself ...........things can go poorly after the weekend storm just as easily........ of course please note I said "as it currently stands!" That implies that it's open to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 For an organized system like the weekend yes, for the clipper they sucked almost as bad as the Ops did, they swung 500 miles total in the last day and a half I was referring to the precip output - the GFS OP is showing nothing and the ensemble mean is showing consistently for the clipper between 0.10 and 0.25 for days now http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2015012000&fh=66&xpos=0&ypos=287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Just eyeballing it, roughly 27 of the 00z EPS members track inside the benchmark. Most members are in the 980's with a few members in the 970's and 960's. The control run goes from 995 inland over NC to to 982 near Norfolk 6 hours later to 967mb 6 hours later about 50 miles SE of ACY to 964mb 6 hours later SE of the benchmark. That's a 31mb drop in 18 hours, including a 15mb drop in 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Just eyeballing it, roughly 27 of the 00z EPS members track inside the benchmark. Most members are in the 980's with a few members in the 970's and 960's. The control run goes from 995 inland over NC to to 982 near Norfolk 6 hours later to 967mb 6 hours later about 50 miles SE of ACY to 964mb 6 hours later SE of the benchmark. That's a 31mb drop in 18 hours, including a 15mb drop in 6 hours. you want the storm to really bomb out if it gets that close to the coast with marginal boundary layers need some help with cooling also need to have the winds with some sort of northerly component Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 you want the storm to really bomb out if it gets that close to the coast with marginal boundarary layers need some help with cooling I want the storm to really bomb out no matter what the precip type outcome. You forget that I despise weak storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 06z NAVGEM was another bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I want the storm to really bomb out no matter what the precip type outcome. You forget that I despise weak storms. we are getting ahead of ourselves here - first lets get a few various model runs in a row with significant precip over the metro then we will worry about bombing out storms Also time to start considering changing the title to this thread as NWS is prediciting snow on Monday http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I don't like the looks of that low north of the Great Lakes....need the storm to hug the coast so it can change the wind direction....next week looks so much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I don't like the looks of that low north of the Great Lakes....need the storm to hug the coast so it can change the wind direction....next week looks so much better which model run are you talking about ? Any chance of posting a link ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I don't like the looks of that low north of the Great Lakes....need the storm to hug the coast so it can change the wind direction....next week looks so much better I agree. Anytime I see a great lakes low where you want a HP it's a red flag. Next weeks potential has a much more favorable airmass. Not that a bombing low can't overcome that and another good thing is we are in the middle of meteorological winter so climo is at it's peak for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 which model run are you talking about ? Any chance of posting a link ? All the models have it for the weekend event...it pumps the sw flow until the costal changes the wind direction. Next week has a better Pna spike and the energy looks very potent diving in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I agree. Anytime I see a great lakes low where you want a HP it's a red flag. Next weeks potential has a much more favorable airmass. Not that a bombing low can't overcome that and another good thing is we are in the middle of meteorological winter so climo is at it's peak for the area. Agree. Not saying we can't get a storm...just thinking it might be hard for the coast to get a snowstorm out of it...the potential next week looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Just so we are all clear ...two events we are talking about are sat night into Sunday ..then the other is Monday night into Tue am I correct ..?? If the next week threat still on maps by tomm time for another thread IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 we are getting ahead of ourselves here - first lets get a few various model runs in a row with significant precip over the metro then we will worry about bombing out storms Also time to start considering changing the title to this thread as NWS is prediciting snow on Monday http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html well said on ALL accounts... Would love a storm as much as the next guy, but for the next two days it's purely obs mode, no need to talk about SECS/MECS, KU events, et al... let's relax and see how this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 While I generally agree with the concerns about the lack of a high pressure...ect, if you get a rapidly intensifying bomb inside the benchmark there is no way that it rains for anyone in this sub-forum, outside of maybe far eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Just so we are all clear ...two events we are talking about are sat night into Sunday ..then the other is Monday night into Tue am I correct ..?? If the next week threat still on maps by tomm time for another thread IMO not according to Mount Holly http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 not according to Mount Holly http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Why do people continue to use NWS forecasts as justification that a storm won't occur? They always take the conservative road. You will see that change a lot if the models tick NW again today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Just so we are all clear ...two events we are talking about are sat night into Sunday ..then the other is Monday night into Tue am I correct ..?? If the next week threat still on maps by tomm time for another thread IMO Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Why do people continue to use NWS forecasts as justification that a storm won't occur? They always take the conservative road. You will see that change a lot if the models tick NW again today. I just posted a link to Mount Holly and I did not endorse their forecast any issues or questions please call the Mount Holly office - I was just making an observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 notice how close the mix line is yet this area is barely into the heavy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 12Z NAM using its usual bias at 84 hours would lead me to believe the track should be too far east for us as of now...I'd expect near misses to continue to be the dominant idea on the GFS./Euro and ensembles today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 12Z NAM using its usual bias at 84 hours would lead me to believe the track should be too far east for us as of now...I'd expect near misses to continue to be the dominant idea on the GFS./Euro and ensembles today. Have you looked at the 00z EPS individuals? Roughly half of them track inside the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think it's the models catching on to the faster AO rebound allowing the SE Ridge to play more of a factor than a few days ago. ao.sprd2.gif The reason for the stronger SE ridge is because you have a more amplified system pumping up heights ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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