ag3 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Totally agree, I guess the winter has jaded me a bit so far. CMC trended NW, Euro trended NW, Navgem is a hit, id say its been a goodnight, goodnight everyone. Interest to see the Ensembles and low locations of the EC. Euro is a hit also. Especially for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 DAY 8 BOOM BACK TO BACK AND A BELLY TO BELLY how big is #2 ? we all know spacing needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 how big is #2 ? we all know spacing needed 975mb near the BM. 6"-12" run. More for Eastern LI and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wow, that second storm is really impressive. At 186 it has a closed contour at 976mb, right over the BM. H5 closes off as well with the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I said not to overlook the 24th threat. We might be making up our snowfall deficit in a hurry if the upcoming pattern plays out the way the models are currently indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I said not to overlook the 24th threat. We might be making up our snowfall deficit in a hurry if the upcoming pattern plays out the way the models are currently indicating.from where I stand at least we can all go to bed with a smile tonight and if one of the threats doesn't work out I have a strong feeling the other one will. This isn't that one model pony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hey im just sayin I don't see a strong high in place for this one, im not tryin to poopoo on any parade, I want this to work out just as much as any one here. Your somewhat correct it's going to be another thread the needle situation, if somehow it comes closer were probably screwed, the good news is I really don't see how it CAN come much closer, the approaching northern stream disturbance in Canada may still boot it out to sea, but again the system ejects from the southeast as the cold air source departs...if it's as deep as this though there is enough cold air to tap and pull down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Boy, If you thought the 12z European Ensembles were amped up... The 00z EPS is in excellent agreement with the operational for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 EPS is bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The individual members are insanely amped up (to the point that some are coastal huggers and inland bombs) and the mean looks even better than I thought. Not even going to elaborate on the control run which has a 967mb low tucked into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 06 Nam looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 06 Nam looks great. Probably want to see it more amped than that, based on usual NAM tendencies that would probably end up a near miss here but things looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUtrack Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Probably want to see it more amped than that, based on usual NAM tendencies that would probably end up a near miss here but things looking better. well, the 00z NAM looked absolutely horrible. So its great to see that from the 06z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's the NAM at the end of it's run but I can't sleep so why not... 0z at 84 hrs the SLP is 100 or so miles south of the TX/LA border. At 6z the SLP is crossing the Florida panhandle into Alabama at 78 hrs. And just kinda dances around there for the last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 06z GFS is north and west of 0z. Grazes the metro with lite precip. Pretty good agreement between the Euro and GFS this far out. It's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yeap 6z gfs is northwest of its 0z run. 12z would be interesting after looking at EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If it wasn't for the AO taking a dip I would probably discount this system. Pattern seems progressive enough to avoid a coastal or inland hugger though given how the storm may explode may still be okay. I think we may be looking at a rain to snow type situation because air mass isn't very cold but as storm rapidly deepens it pulls colder air in. Gfs also shows signs of the second storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not a bad spot to be in 4-4.5 days out, hopefully things continue to trend in our favor. At the very least, this is by far the best potential of the winter, so if there is anything to hang your hat on its that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Probably want to see it more amped than that, based on usual NAM tendencies that would probably end up a near miss here but things looking better. 6z DGEX has track inside the BM. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 There is a storm behind this one . It has a great look to it , and would be in the middle of next week . Its a full latitude trough and would be a really cold storm . 8 days away but file that one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I know I'm just jumping the gun with the precip type talk but isn't this weekend system pulling a lot of warm air North with it? Prog charts look awfully borderline to my eyes and we haven't even pulled this close to the coast yet. I'm intrigued by this storm but I'm not loving the setup.....antecedent cold airmass is stale. Fresh cold air behind that pesky Low over the Great Lakes. I like the 26-27 system a lot better. What do you guys think about the weekend? Interior and elevation storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wouldn't a storm of that strength produce it's own cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wouldn't a storm of that strength produce it's own cold air? I would think so but that's why I asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I would think so but that's why I asked.Simple. Too soon to give you an answer confidently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It should if it's going to be as strong as the models are putting out. But its true it would be better to have a fresh cold mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wouldn't a storm of that strength produce it's own cold air? Yeah but not initially, it may start as rain much like 2/813 did, that started as rain for a totally different reason in that it was a transfer from an inland low at first but this one could potentially do that as well if the current tracks or something close to that occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It should if it's going to be as strong as the models are putting out. But its true it would be better to have a fresh cold mass. It is what it is . You live at 40 N on the coastal plain and PT are part of life .The fight over the next 4 days will be is this so amped that some start as rain and go over to heavy snow . The European drops the storm 12mb in 6 hours and 19 in 24 so it has the look of a mature storm where CCB could develop and overcome a crap air mass 12 hours ago this really did not exist . I will take my chances . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I guess even as long as the track is good the big cities still always run the risk of flipping to a mix or even rain for a while during the bigger storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It is what it is . You live at 40 N on the coastal plain and PT are part of life .The fight over the next 4 days will be is this so amped that some start as rain and go over to heavy snow . The European drops the storm 12mb in 6 hours and 19 in 24 so it has the look of a mature storm where CCB could develop and overcome a crap air mass 12 hours ago this really did not exist . I will take my chances . Well said and I agree. Just wanted to ask a few simple questions to spawn some discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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