robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 With the whole boxing day mess when the Ecmwf caved to the Gfs, the players or the key one was over Canada territories...in poor sampling ground. Looking here... the 2 key players are on our soil. This is why I suggest all of us go all in with the Ecmwf and not stress out about the Gfs being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 There was a storm maybe 5-6 years ago that was going to be a bomb for Detroit or Chicago and then all of a sudden 4 days out one model suite and every model shifted the track 500 miles east and it ended up being a big storm here. Ive always wondered what would happen if we ended up on the wrong end of something like that. I remember it well. DT called it the "Pam Anderson" storm lol. That storm turned out to be whiff for td east coast. Just two days prior it was a lakes blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I remember it well. DT called it the "Pam Anderson" storm lol. That storm turned out to be whiff for td east coast. Just two days prior it was a lakes blizzard. The NAO was raging positive I think which made it even more odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I dont understand why people are making it seem that either the GFS will be right or the Euro will be right - people do understand there is a middle ground right? It's because in this case its the GFS v.s. every other model, thus making the GFS an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 With the whole boxing day mess when the Ecmwf caved to the Gfs, the players or the key one was over Canada territories...in poor sampling ground. Looking here... the 2 key players are on our soil. This is why I suggest all of us go all in with the Ecmwf and not stress out about the Gfs being right. The euro had that storm for days. It lost it for one day and then the GFS caught onto it 60-72 hours prior to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Your posts/graphics definitely add some insight to the discussion, but I wonder if people wouldn't be so put off if you actually further explained why you are posting "said" map and how it pertains to the system in question. Just my 2 cents. Actually, I find the animated GIFs incredibly annoying, not to mention his unfortunate habit of posting anomaly maps for something as basic as 850 temps. Intentionally misleading IMO as a +2 anomaly could still be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I remember that storm well . I got annihilated in SI here. Probably close to 30 inches of snow if I remember right. Can't believe it's been 5 years since. That's incredible to be honest how time fly's. The euro had that storm for days. It lost it for one day and then the GFS caught onto it 60-72 hours prior to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's because in this case its the GFS v.s. every other model, thus making the GFS an outlier. ha ok, clearly the point is lost on you... the point I was trying to make and will try one more time is that in all likelihood today's Euro will not verify verbatim. in all likelihood today's GFS wont verify verbatim. So to look at the two latest outputs of the model and try to say with certainty that either will be right, is simply fools game when you know neither solution will be exactly correct - furthermore in a situation like this, every 25 miles matters - so even the "smallest" changes will have significant impacts.. in my opinion we'll see something inside the envelope of guidance (cone of uncertainty as some referred to) that the GFS and Euro are offering us... that's all I was trying to say - sorry to get in the way of the bickering of "GFS is out to Lunch" "Euro is always right" "everything must be an absolute" - as you were... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 the NAVGEM has trended MUCH further west than its previous runs. Looks like a mix/rain to heavy snow and several inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Gfs is not a model to me....and I will not pay attention to it at 00z. Ecmwf is not too amped...it is the best model and this is within 96 hours now. Dude. The gfs is "not a model" but the nam is? I remember your NAM clipper call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I was wrong I admit there. The gfs is "not a model" but the nam is? I remember your NAM clipper call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Storms getting its act together over the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 the NAVGEM has trended MUCH further west than its previous runs. Looks like a mix/rain to heavy snow and several inches That track to cape cod usually means big snows in sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That track to cape cod usually means big snows in sne I think this could be a case where SNE does very well in a poor pattern ala "nemo" (sorry)... not at all saying same amounts at that storm - but just a case where you have a rapidly developing storm moving at a good clip - they tend to do the best with those systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Does this indicate a spread closer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's going to be a big rainmaker down here-pretty much every model has up to 3" of rain along I-35 and east, which would be Austin's biggest rain event in quite a while. That should bode well for you guys if it tracks close enough-tons of Gulf moisture will get pulled into the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I think this could be a case where SNE does very well in a poor pattern ala "nemo" (sorry)... not at all saying same amounts at that storm - but just a case where you have a rapidly developing storm moving at a good clip - they tend to do the best with those systems. not so sure i would classify this as a poor pattern right now, certainly not ideal from a blocking perspective, but there are some similarities to last winter which produced some solid events. I would agree that it is a pattern that is not conducive to a blockbuster event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Does this indicate a spread closer to the coast? The mean is where it is but the spread is closer to the coast east of ACY. Meaning that there might be one or two OTS outliers but most are closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It's going to be a big rainmaker down here-pretty much every model has up to 3" of rain along I-35 and east, which would be Austin's biggest rain event in quite a while. That should bode well for you guys if it tracks close enough-tons of Gulf moisture will get pulled into the storm. At least it will 60F & rain for you vs the painful 34F & rain you are use to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It appears to me the spread is close to the coast early near VA but then just outside the benchmark after, that could be legit or it could be the SREFs are slightly better inside 60 and much worse beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Lol, well if me posting here makes my username come true than its at least worth a shot. To answer your question honestly; the odds are extremely slim, the GFS has a long known southeast bias and even models which share that bias such as the NAVGEM have tracks near or inside the benchmark; that tells you that the run is off. The EURO and CMC handle miller A systems such as this much better than the GFS which tends to be more accurate with northern stream features in a progressive flow. Ride the EURO for this system unless it starts wavering significantly from run to run. As of now, a SECS or greater for the northeast looks likely. 0z will be interesting... Fyi the GFS as it stands now has only been in use for a week. Not a good idea to transpose the bias of the old GFS onto the new one. Not enough of a sample set to deduce a bias on the new GFS yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 7.5 days out actually It did nail Sandy about 120 hours out I have to admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 maybe they are seeing this ( i dont knwo I just sayin ..) There is also no +2C spike at 850mb that Upton refers to...I'm not sure what they're getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 7.5 days out actually yup. Canadian was also good on Sandy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 It also got the 96 blizzard 7 days out although it waivered a few times in between but it did have a 988mb low at 168 hours off Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nam comes out in 20 minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nam comes out in 20 minutes? Already running Out to 16 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Nam comes out in 20 minutes? Right now actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Any pbp?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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