Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Curious to see if the GEFS are aligned with the OP. If most members are skewed to the west of the OP then I wouldn't worry much about the complete OTS solution it showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Curious to see if the GEFS are aligned with the OP. If most members are skewed to the west of the OP then I wouldn't worry much about the complete OTS solution it showed They're east, similar to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Data for model ingest Winter Flight Today in the Gulf http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&nontasked=2015 http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&product=recco&identifier=150121165222302&aircraft=302&month=01&day=21&mission=WX&agency=AF&ob=01-21-1908-07--56- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 They're east, similar to the OP. We Have a major showdown here. The new GFS is almost OTS and the Euro is a Huge hit for most of the area with a sub 970 storm Will it be total victory for one or a compromise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GEFS wide right like the OP.The GFS is alone in its solution, has a known bias of being south and east. I know others would say otherwise but it's hard to take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 lets not pretend people who are somewhat understandable concerned wouldn't be calling people weenies if it was the opposite situation(gfs showing a hit and others ots) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 lets not pretend people who are somewhat understandable concerned wouldn't be calling people weenies if it was the opposite situation(gfs showing a hit and others ots) And understandably so. The EURO has a proven track record. This new GFS does not and just failed miserably two days before last weekends monsoon. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We Have a major showdown here. The new GFS is almost OTS and the Euro is a Huge hit for most of the area with a sub 970 storm Will it be total victory for one or a compromise? When the Euro and Ukie both agree on a Miller A, they are tough to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 My guess is the Euro is too amped and the GFS is too weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Gfs is not a model to me....and I will not pay attention to it at 00z. Ecmwf is not too amped...it is the best model and this is within 96 hours now. Dude. My guess is the Euro is too amped and the GFS is too weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Gfs is not a model to me....and I will not pay attention to it at 00z. Ecmwf is not too amped...it is the best model and this is within 96 hours now. Dude. The Euro has taken dumps a few times in the 72-96 range, inside of that you're generally safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Gfs is not a model to me....and I will not pay attention to it at 00z. Ecmwf is not too amped...it is the best model and this is within 96 hours now. Dude.come on now if the GFS was showing the same solution as the Euro you "WOULD" put stock into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Gfs is not a model to me....and I will not pay attention to it at 00z. Ecmwf is not too amped...it is the best model and this is within 96 hours now. Dude.You cannot just toss a solution whether its the gfs or not. It is a viable outcome from this storm due to the progressive nature of the pattern and little to no blocking. Do I see it as the likely outcome? No. I would use a blend of the euro and gfs myself but thats just me. Not a direct hit yet not a complete miss....right in the middle. Just dont say it has no clue without giving a reason why you think its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 My guess is the Euro is too amped and the GFS is too weak I agree, My thinking is the Euro backs off a little and the GFS amps up and goes west. My hope is the Euro is totally correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I agree, My thinking is the Euro backs off a little and the GFS amps up and goes west. My hope is the Euro is totally correctThis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I got your point...now does any other model support the Gfs? Why would anyone think an outlier is gona be right. My point was there are no models supporting the Gfs. Lmao and you want to talk track record with the Nogaps? U r joking right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 If the EC caves to the GFS tonight...there will be weeping...and wailing...and gnashing of teeth never before seen in this dimension. Do you think that will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 I've seen the Euro cave before but generally not with this much ensemble support. Nearly all the individuals were just as impressive as the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Chances of that happening is 1%.You're riding a lone wolf model here. I think the Euro will be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 If the EC caves to the GFS tonight...there will be weeping...and wailing...and gnashing of teeth never before seen in this dimension. There was a storm maybe 5-6 years ago that was going to be a bomb for Detroit or Chicago and then all of a sudden 4 days out one model suite and every model shifted the track 500 miles east and it ended up being a big storm here. Ive always wondered what would happen if we ended up on the wrong end of something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Sure it may cave...when disturbances are not sampled...where the models are fair game to guess. But here the 2 disturbances are already sampled...and the Ecmwf is too good ... to not get this right fairly easily. People need to understand the 2 key features are over the U.S already...not in the Pacific. I've seen the Euro cave before but generally not with this much ensemble support. Nearly all the individuals were just as impressive as the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Chances of that happening is 1%.You're riding a lone wolf model here. I know what is going to happen; I've seen all this before. However, because you are excessively anxious, I have decided to keep you in a state of suspense. Yes, it would suck to go from a foot of snow to a foot in your ... Lol, well if me posting here makes my username come true than its at least worth a shot. To answer your question honestly; the odds are extremely slim, the GFS has a long known southeast bias and even models which share that bias such as the NAVGEM have tracks near or inside the benchmark; that tells you that the run is off. The EURO and CMC handle miller A systems such as this much better than the GFS which tends to be more accurate with northern stream features in a progressive flow. Ride the EURO for this system unless it starts wavering significantly from run to run. As of now, a SECS or greater for the northeast looks likely. 0z will be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcrae66 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 There was a storm maybe 5-6 years ago that was going to be a bomb for Detroit or Chicago and then all of a sudden 4 days out one model suite and every model shifted the track 500 miles east and it ended up being a big storm here. Ive always wondered what would happen if we ended up on the wrong end of something like that. Didn't NYC metro have the rug pulled out from under it last year within like 72-96 hrs and SNE /cape got crushed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 If the EC caves to the GFS tonight...there will be weeping...and wailing...and gnashing of teeth never before seen in this dimension. It's not like that has never happened before.The good thing at the moment though is the other models haven't started any sort of trend east. At least that I am aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 As you see both disturbances are well in the Profile network to get sampled easily. This is not A PACIFIC POOR SAMPLED REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 There was a storm maybe 5-6 years ago that was going to be a bomb for Detroit or Chicago and then all of a sudden 4 days out one model suite and every model shifted the track 500 miles east and it ended up being a big storm here. Ive always wondered what would happen if we ended up on the wrong end of something like that. Reminds of the boxing day blizzard where we had a miss a few days before which was supposed to be a good storm. Maybe if this storm misses we could get a good one on Monday. Can you please explain what's going on there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I dont understand why people are making it seem that either the GFS will be right or the Euro will be right - people do understand there is a middle ground right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yeah we have all the players on the field already and the Euro is superior with miller A's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Didn't NYC metro have the rug pulled out from under it last year within like 72-96 hrs and SNE /cape got crushed? I don't remember that one, the worst one I recall was in 07-08 or 08-09 the Euro had a SWFE tracking over the PA/NY border and every other model had it over MD destroying us with snow, then 72 hours out when everyone figured the Euro was definitely going to be wrong, everything caved to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day3.shtml#day3half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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