IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Going to be way southeast. Barely a glancing blow for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 985mb 200+ miles SE of ACY. Awful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 In my honest opinion the American models are demonstarting there inferiority today. All the Non American guidance shifted NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Wow.. Once you get to NE NJ on the 18z GFS things are pretty much dry. It looks like we once again have a model battle between the European and the GFS (and their ensembles) Enter Doorman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Too funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 YAWN . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Is the PGFS integrated into the GFS now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Is the PGFS integrated into the GFS now? Yes, it has been for around a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Wow.. Once you get to NE NJ on the 18z GFS things are pretty much dry. It looks like we once again have a model battle between the European and the GFS and their ensembles. Enter Doorman. The Euro is surperior with Miller A's. It has the support of its ensembles and the GGEM. I'll ride that until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Is the PGFS integrated into the GFS now? Yes. Clearly having some trouble with this system. Huge swings. I'm more concerned about this system flooding the coastal plain with warmth on an amped track the I am of it missing this far SE, this is a whacky solution, throw it out till 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm still very wary of the new GFS given its stark changes between 0z and 6z and its earlier performance close to a big ticket storm. From 1/16: Based on the 0z runs, this possible storm represents the first major qpf "battle" between the ECMWF and the upgraded GFS. Select qpf forecasts for the NYC metro area from the 0z runs: BDR: ECMWF: 1.30"; GFS: 0.01" EWR: ECMWF: 1.31"; GFS: None ISP: ECMWF: 1.10"; GFS: 0.09" NYC: ECMWF: 1.38"; GFS: None http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45384-118-119-potential-coastal-storm/?p=3259453 Precipitation amounts for 1/18: BDR: 1.28" EWR: 1.84" ISP: 0.83" NYC: 2.10" If the GFS hasn't begun to trend toward the other global models (or if the other global models trend toward the GFS) by tomorrow's 12z and 18z runs, then I'll be more concerned that the GFS might have a potentially more accurate solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm still very wary of the new GFS given its stark changes between 0z and 6z and its earlier performance close to a big ticket storm. From 1/16: Based on the 0z runs, this possible storm represents the first major qpf "battle" between the ECMWF and the upgraded GFS. Select qpf forecasts for the NYC metro area from the 0z runs: BDR: ECMWF: 1.30"; GFS: 0.01" EWR: ECMWF: 1.31"; GFS: None ISP: ECMWF: 1.10"; GFS: 0.09" NYC: ECMWF: 1.38"; GFS: None http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45384-118-119-potential-coastal-storm/?p=3259453 Precipitation amounts for 1/18: BDR: 1.28" EWR: 1.84" ISP: 0.83" NYC: 2.10" If the GFS hasn't begun to trend toward the other global models (or if the other global models trend toward the GFS) by tomorrow's 12z and 18z runs, then I'll be more concerned that the GFS might have a potentially more accurate solution. Wow. That's an extremely damning analysis of the P(GFS). And a pretty accurate forecast by the Euro. The Euro actually under did QPF by quite a bit for NYC and EWR.Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Tell me this - If these two models were flipped and the Euro was OTS...how would you feel? I definitely am more confident in the Euro, but primarily b/c it's got the rest of the guidance on its side. The GFS should be thrown out at the moment. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 And a model with a real SE bias is even seeing it . 18z NAVGEM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 In my honest opinion the American models are demonstarting there inferiority today. All the Non American guidance shifted NW. Why inferiority? How do you know this solution is inferior to the euro solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The Euro is surperior with Miller A's. It has the support of its ensembles and the GGEM. I'll ride that until proven otherwise. Totally agree. I'll ride them as well until proven otherwise. Euro has great support from its 51 ensemble members, just a handful of them have essentially a miss for this forum. Majority are locked and loaded for a decent event be it all snow or snow to mix/rain back to snow. I still don't think we're talking epic event here but I still like the euro/ggem over the latest (12Z and 18Z) GFS. GFS had a huge bust just this past weekend from about 48 hours out…had no rain (as has been pointed out already in this thread) and most places had 1.5 to just over 2". This will be second big test for new GFS so we will see if it passes or fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The GFS has zero support. It's out to lunch. Even the NAVGEM is amped up in the 970s as PB GFI showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Blend of models always works nicely for me... I don't think storm plays out exactly as Euro has it and certainly not the way GFS has it.. somewhere in that "cone of uncertainty is our track and strength.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAVGEM is so NW thatbits troubling. GFS taking a long lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Why inferiority? How do you know this solution is inferior to the euro solution? The ECMWF consistently has the best verification scores, been that way for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Why inferiority? How do you know this solution is inferior to the euro solution? Past experience, mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Man, at least 50% of the reason I love snowstorms is due to the model analysis/bickering/which one is better...sucked to not have any of this up till now! in anycase, we should feel good that it's really only the gfs which shows an OTS solution, though what a coup (negative one at that) if it proves right-espec for DM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The GFS has zero support. It's out to lunch. Even the NAVGEM is amped up in the 970s as PB GFI showed. I am a GFS fan, but In this case the Euro has been very consistent. It saw the storm in almost in the same spot on Jan 15th. I posted it on banter. Right now I have to go with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The ECMWF consistently has the best verification scores, been that way for years. It did nail Sandy about 120 hours out I have to admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Worth noting.....as Don has commented on before.....while the Euro has always been the better model, beating out the GFS.....the OLD GFS did better than the NEW one.....so all in all, this makes the Euro A MUCH better model at this time. While I usually would be a bit cautious if a model showed such a solution getting closer to the event, at this point given the parallel gfs's (new GFS) track record thus far, I'd say it truly is out to a long, long lunch (maybe it went to Europe for some advice) and it is better for us at this point to be cautiously optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I could believe the GFS may be is correct if it didn't jump around every single run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Tonight 00z and especially 12z tomorrow is when we can start putting trust into the models. Let's just wait and see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 One of them are gonna cave by tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I could believe the GFS may be is correct if it didn't jump around every single run i am NOT saying it is right - but not entirely fair to say its jumping around every single run... https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/558033207816638465 take a look for yourself - sure subtle changes, but its not going bi-polar on us (this time around) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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