Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Jan 26-27 isn't the best analog to use for this system since its a rather extreme scenario, but there are some similarities http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/2010-2011%20Winter/ScreenHunter_19Jan261348.jpg http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/2010-2011%20Winter/ScreenHunter_03Jan251709.jpg http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/2010-2011%20Winter/ecmwf-mslp-qpf6hr-us_hr54.png http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchaser20079/2010-2011%20Winter/StormTotalSnowFcst1.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Definitly a few more NW leaning members this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The Euro has gusts to 35kts all the way back into the Morristown area on Saturday night. Blizzard conditions well inland. How are the winds on Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Massive frontogenic forcing on the 12z ECMWF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Whether or not the city and coast changes over for a time may depend on what occurs from 66-72 hours, the euro would suggest not much but if a front running area of snow develops it could ultimately be snow the entire event Didn't this happen in the 1/26/2011 event? Except it outran the actual low too quickly and allowed warm air to seep back in for a few hours of mix for the main event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 CIPS most over sued stuff since SSWE - sudden stratospheric warming means -AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 how DO you get 30" of snow out of 1.25" liquid ? A Euro run like that if verified would drop 30" in spots. A general 12-18" with pockets of 20-30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 another idiIot post How exactly do you ignore the rain? 850 temps and 32 degree surface lien well NORTH of Long island 12ZEUROnwREGION.jpg If you go back through the thread, he does not ignore it... but says that once the low passes our longitude, the CCB will more than make up for any mixing/rain. Personally, I'm concerned about taint at the coast... but I also know that the cold side of these systems really nukes, especially when the storm is bombing like that... PVA/WAA on roids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hour 78 on the EURO is pretty warm for most, 850s crash, but it def does not stay all snow for the major cities whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Probably 3-5 am saturday morning. I thought the Euro didn't even have flurries until after 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 DT your not liking the setup for this storm? Sure the coast will probably taint but 20-30 miles inland could see huge numbers if the euro is close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Didn't this happen in the 1/26/2011 event? Except it outran the actual low too quickly and allowed warm air to seep back in for a few hours of mix for the main event? That was a different setup, the initial snows were due to a sneaky vort I think embedded in the flow before the low developed, this may pull a 1/87 or 1/2000 and snow heavily, then flip to sleet or rain or possibly even dry slot then go to heavy snow, those 2 events never flipped back because the lows tracked into the Hudson Valley which downslopes is and doesn't put us in a position to see snows behind the 850 and 700 lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 how DO you get 30" of snow out of 1.25" liquid ? Exaggerated snow ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 What Yanks fan right or wrong was implying that with a setup that the EURO is showing the dynamics will be quite insane and if anyone gets under the CCB or deformation band they could see a lot more than what the EURO is showing qpf wise verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 how DO you get 30" of snow out of 1.25" liquid ? Because it's Yanksfan and he tends to get carried away. Otherwise, stop being a killjoy... you know the odds of a significant (6+) event (not 20-30, lol) for the NYC Metro just went up with the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z ECMWF ensembles support the operational run. No real shift on the individual members from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NOTICE the Blue line... the zero 540 line is waaaay west of BOS... and Just clearing NYC I dont like to use the 540 dm thiokness line but it does indicate some warm layers in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 how DO you get 30" of snow out of 1.25" liquid ? Simple, 1.25" is likely underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 how DO you get 30" of snow out of 1.25" liquid ?He didn't talk about the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 oK that one was damn funny I gotta admit He didn't talk about the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z ECMWF ensembles support the operational run. No real shift on the individual members from 00z More members are inside the benchmark at 84 hours and most of them are in the 970's vs 980's on the 00z run. Also snowfall on the mean went up slightly NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 No matter what, there's certainly going to be mixing issues on the coast and possibly NYC during the early hours of the storm before turning over to complete snow as the system bombs out. That said, the system does not seem to close off completely according to the models. What are the chances it does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We finally get a legit storm to track this winter and some people still resort to petty callouts and name calling. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 well if he has said 6" great ...I am all for that 10" ? ok great I can see that ...30"? questioning a 30" snow forecast doesnt meanI am forecasting rainI am forecasting sunny skies doesnt mean I am anti snow Because it's Yanksfan and he tends to get carried away. Otherwise, stop being a killjoy... you know the odds of a significant (6+) event (not 20-30, lol) for the NYC Metro just went up with the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You cannot use a 32-degree line on a low-resolution map when there are heavy dynamics involved. I will agree that the 850mb 0C line argues for some tainting for sure, but after that we all get into CCB heaven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm seeing maybe 1 - 2 hour sleet....this will be a doozy for NYC. No matter what, there's certainly going to be mixing issues on the coast and possibly NYC during the early hours of the storm before turning over to complete snow as the system bombs out. That said, the system does not seem to close off completely according to the models. What are the chances it does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 The control run is also NW of its 00z run. 986mb 20 miles SE of ACY to 972mb near the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I thought the Euro didn't even have flurries until after 7am. Euro map at 72 hours has precip over us, so if you subtract a couple hours before that is how i arrived at those times. I believe the maps are precip ending so a few hours before that it would start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Massive frontogenic forcing on the 12z ECMWF... Sorry for the stupid question, maybe this belongs in the banter thread but what does the purple above nyc indicate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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