IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 My location is listed. Apparently we get the shaft based on those images still. Ah yes I see, the Poconos do okay, West of there is borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's going to be pretty hard for I-95 and east to avoid some tainting in this setup, and maybe even a few hours of it for areas east of NYC. But if the euro has any idea on the evolution, that's really not going to matter as the CCB would be pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Weenie snow map. The one from EuroWx.com is infinitely better with multiple variables to compute snow accumulations Disclaimer: (These are tweets, not my actual maps from WxBell) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's going to be pretty hard for I-95 and east to avoid some tainting in this setup, and maybe even a few hours of it for areas east of NYC. But if the euro has any idea on the evolution, that's really not going to matter as the CCB would be pretty awesome. Whatever you lose on the front you will triple on the back 1 to 1.5 inches in 6 hours would see some NEMO snowfall rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Very rough sketch of total precip from the weekend. SE layer is 1-1.5" Then .75-1, .5-.75 and .25-.5 as you work NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Weenie snow map. The one from EuroWx.com is infinitely better with multiple variables to compute snow accumulations (These are tweets, not my actual maps from WxBell) Sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Whats timing looking like for NYC? I might be coming up for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Whats timing looking like for NYC? I might be coming up for this one. Saturday AM - I'm so snow starved - I'll be heading to wherever stands the best chance of feeling the biggest impacts.. would love for that to be in one of my locations ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 The Euro has gusts to 35kts all the way back into the Morristown area on Saturday night. Blizzard conditions well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z JMA totals, keep in mind this includes a few tenths of an inch from today's event for the southern 2/3rds of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Does the EURO has the Monday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro12z qpf Amounts:Boston: 1.80"Nantucket: 1.80"Providence: 1.69"Philly: 1.28"Hartford: 1.25"Bridgeport: 1.28"NYC: 1.23"Danbury: 1.08" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 out to sea for Monday. I like the day 10 potential... with a southern wave approaching the New Foundland upper low a lot. Does the EURO has the Monday storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Does the EURO has the Monday storm? Light snow...not enough spacing between storms to dig. Patrern looks great going into febuary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Please keep the posts unrelated to Saturday's storm in a seperate thread. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Select 12z ECMWF QPF Amounts (1/24-25): Albany: 0.06" Allentown: 0.81" Baltimore: 1.04" Bangor: 0.96" Belmar: 1.38" Boston: 1.80" Bridgeport: 1.28" Concord: 0.56" Danbury: 1.08" Groton: 1.59" Harrisburg: 0.65" Islip: 1.35" Morristown: 1.10" New Haven: 1.35" New York City: ...JFK: 1.33" ...LGA: 1.26" ...NYC: 1.23" Newark: 1.22" Philadelphia: 1.28" Portland: 0.96" Poughkeepsie: 0.63" Providence: 1.69" Reading: 0.65" Richmond: 1.22" Scranton: 0.23" Washington, DC: ...DCA: 1.07" ...IAD: 0.96" White Plains: 1.25" Westhampton: 1.47" Worcester: 1.29" Note: Not all qpf is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Don't be afraid of a light period of mixing between the front and end-Jan 26, 2011 had a similar outcome and the areas that mixed briefly had some of the highest totals. If the Euro pans out, everyone will be very very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Don't be afraid of a light period of mixing between the front and end-Jan 26, 2011 had a similar outcome and the areas that mixed briefly had some of the highest totals. If the Euro pans out, everyone will be very very happy. Wrote this up away, My apologizes for who have to read it twice . You are deepening this in the perfect slot 996 OBX to 960 CC 36 MB in 18 hours . You are going to drive the best Vertical motion right through our area . QPF maps can print out 1.5 all they want but Miller A with that ferocity get over 2 inches very easily considering the convection one should expect . There should be R/S line sets up I95 and E but the window is probably 3 to 5 hours of crap and not 6 to 9 as portrayed on the GEM . But when you total the front and what the back end can yield In the end it might be worth it to be on that line for a bit as that may be the place that max out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 A Euro run like that if verified would drop 30" in spots. A general 12-18" with pockets of 20-30". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 500mb track and storm configuration closely resembles February 5th 2001 to me. Obviously not the same, but def an analog to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 What seems to be the start time for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 1/26/2011 is showing up as a top analog for this storm. We had a front end with a few inches, then some light rain and mix, and then all out heavy snow. The warm air was mostly in a dry slot. The key will be the upper low hopefully closing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 1/26/2011 is high up on the CIPS analog list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 And it's been awhile since I've been on here, is "taint" the new term for precip that's not all snow? It taint one and it taint the other. It's what's in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 A Euro run like that if verified would drop 30" in spots. A general 12-18" with pockets of 20-30". I think that could show up in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Feb 5th 2001 also had bad HP placement and a low north of the lakes. Today's EURO: Feb 5th 2001: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Whether or not the city and coast changes over for a time may depend on what occurs from 66-72 hours, the euro would suggest not much but if a front running area of snow develops it could ultimately be snow the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Feb 5th 2001 also had bad HP placement and a low north of the lakes. Today's EURO: Feb 5th 2001: The track of the 500mb system looks a little more favorable this time for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think that could show up in New England agree, those numbers would be more likely up there, but I'd take anything over 6" - heck, id take anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 What seems to be the start time for this? Probably 3-5 am saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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