winterwx21 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The Canadian PCPN loop actually shows NYC going over to mix/rain for about 8 or 9 hours. Wouldn't that cut way down on accumulations? It's not like the changeover is very brief. I know it's only 1 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Is it snow in the city prior to that 'warm' frame? Front end dump Then over to ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 The Canadian PCPN loop actually shows NYC going over to mix/rain for about 8 or 9 hours. Wouldn't that cut way down on accumulations? It's not like the changeover is very brief. I know it's only 1 run. Yes, that's why NYC wouldn't see the highest accumulations if that occured. JP zone is MMU to HPN to BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The Canadian PCPN loop actually shows NYC going over to mix/rain for about 8 or 9 hours. Wouldn't that cut way down on accumulations? It's not like the changeover is very brief. I know it's only 1 run. The GGEM warm bias at this range is as understood as the GFS `s South and East bias . Do not take P types 72 hours out literally . Somewhere in between the GGEM and GFS may be your forecast . The Euro will probably show you at 12z , match them up and look for continuity . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looking at the position of the low and strength is better than looking at the precip it shows doubt with that track we would see as much of a changeover as depicted by the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The GGEM warm bias at this range is as understood as the GFS `s South and East bias . Do not take P types 72 hours out literally . Somewhere in between the GGEM and GFS may be your forecast . The Euro will probably show you at 12z , match them up and look for continuity . I realize that. I was just pointing out that this particular run shows NYC accumulations cut way down by a lot of mixing. Next run might be back to mostly snow. It's still very early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The Canadian PCPN loop actually shows NYC going over to mix/rain for about 8 or 9 hours. Wouldn't that cut way down on accumulations? It's not like the changeover is very brief. I know it's only 1 run. Agree it would cut down. Verbatim the GGEM is not a big hit for NYC , the Jersey coast or Long Island. You have to get north of 80 and west of 287 for 6"+ amounts. Some of the analysis in the forum is wretched. JMA being honked as possible bit hit with a 540 thickness from north of BOS to AVP to PIT does not look like a potential big hit for metro NYC to me. That low looks like it will track very close to the coast. Dynamics can only do so much it will not straw into gold. The CMC 850 low track is too close to coast for all snow in the immediate metro area. You have to get to the areas outlined above for mostly snow. Even there with an 850 track like that it could taint. I know it is only one run but I'm just trying to accurately state what the model shows. The CMC and JMA are to close in for my pleasure and I'm near MMU. I'm ready to get slammed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Agree it would cut down. Verbatim the GGEM is not a big hit for NYC , the Jersey coast or Long Island. You have to get north of 80 and west of 287 for 6"+ amounts. Some of the analysis in the forum is wretched. JMA being honked as possible bit hit with a 540 thickness from north of BOS to AVP to PIT does not look like a potential big hit for metro NYC to me. That low looks like it will track very close to the coast. Dynamics can only do so much it will not straw into gold. The CMC 850 low track is too close to coast for all snow in the immediate metro area. You have to get to the areas outlined above for mostly snow. Even there with an 850 track like that it could taint. I know it is only one run but I'm just trying to accurately state what the model shows. The CMC and JMA are to close in for my pleasure and I'm near MMU. I'm ready to get slammed now. If you live near MMU you need a NAM/GGEM track or you won't see much of anything out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 12z GFS and its ensembles are by far the biggest outliers so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z GGEM seems like it would be an isothermal snow bomb for NYC N&W. We're riding a thin line for sure, but this seems reminiscent of all the MECS we've had in the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Agree it would cut down. Verbatim the GGEM is not a big hit for NYC , the Jersey coast or Long Island. You have to get north of 80 and west of 287 for 6"+ amounts. Some of the analysis in the forum is wretched. JMA being honked as possible bit hit with a 540 thickness from north of BOS to AVP to PIT does not look like a potential big hit for metro NYC to me. That low looks like it will track very close to the coast. Dynamics can only do so much it will not straw into gold. The CMC 850 low track is too close to coast for all snow in the immediate metro area. You have to get to the areas outlined above for mostly snow. Even there with an 850 track like that it could taint. I know it is only one run but I'm just trying to accurately state what the model shows. The CMC and JMA are to close in for my pleasure and I'm near MMU. I'm ready to get slammed now. You are correct verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 First piece of our system that has been diving down from Canada and the NW is located over WY this afternoon, while the second piece is slowly moving through Arizona and beginning to produce snow in Texas. The RAP has both these pieces phasing together by late today or early tomorrow morning in addition to the clipper in the NE (that plays a large role on the evolution of the weekend storm) startibg to bomb out as it moves well offshore. Once we can get these pieces to phase and the clipper to move offshore, we should have a much better handle on the situation come tomorrows 12z runs. Valid: 12:30pm Valid 5am Jan 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 All models phase it tonight...so not sure why bring up the rap model.....which btw is not a good model to use. First piece of our system that has been diving down from Canada and the NW is located over WY this afternoon, while the second piece is slowly moving through Arizona and beginning to produce snow in Texas. The RAP has both these pieces phasing together by late today or early tomorrow morning in addition to the clipper in the NE (that plays a large role on the evolution of the weekend storm) startibg to bomb out as it moves well offshore. Once we can get these pieces to phase and the clipper to move offshore, we should have a much better handle on the situation come tomorrows 12z runs. Valid: 12:30pm Valid 5am Jan 22nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The usual suspect hasn't posted anything from the WPC in a while... EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH A DAY 3 SOUTHERNSTREAM SYSTEM MIGRATING ALONG THE THE GULF STREAM...AND GENERATINGWRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST AND INTERIOR. ASECOND SYSTEM---A NORTHERN STREAM ENTITY---CONTINUES TO BEPOTENTIAL SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE MIDWEST...MID-ATLANTICREGION AND NORTHEAST...DAYS 4-6 RESPECTIVELY. THERE REMAINS THEPOSSIBILITY OF SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE DELMARVA PENINSULAAND DOWNSTREAM TO THE 40N 70W BENCHMARK BETWEEN DAY 5-6.WAS ABLE TO MAINTAIN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS SET OF WPCSURFACE GRAPHICS...USING A BLEND OF THE 21/00Z ECENS/GEFS MEANS.TO DETAIL SOME OF THE SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES...THE 21/00ZDETERMINISTIC ECMWF APPEARED USEFUL THROUGH DAY 5 FROM WEST TOEAST. VOJTESAK...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...THE CYCLONE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST SATURDAY LEADS TO A LARGESHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WITH CHALLENGES OF POTENTIAL WINTER PRECIPON THE NORTH AND WEST FRINGES OF THE SHIELD. THE NEXT CYCLONELEADS TO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WITH RAIN IN THE WARMSECTOR AND SNOW IN THE COLD SECTOR ACROSS THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEYTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY SUN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TOTHE MID ATLANTIC AND NY/NEW ENGLAND MONDAY 26 JAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The purveyors of this system as a snowstorm should be explaining how it or any system produces a big snow event for us with unfavorable teleconnections. The PV needs to be further south and come at us from Hudson Bay. We need a psuedo -NAO to be created by two lows working in tandem about 72 hours apart, with the first one going to 50/50 position and giving us some blocking. I think all storms are going to be impostors till then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 All models phase it tonight...so not sure why bring up the rap model.....which btw is not a good model to use. The HRRR, GFS, NAM, and ECMWF all phase it around the same time tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The usual suspect hasn't posted anything from the WPC in a while... WPC looks like a coastal scraper to me... for our area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 No major changes on the Euro through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 WPC looks like a coastal scraper to me... for our area... They haven't updated the day 3 QPF map yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 The energy is digging a little more in the southwest which will likely lead to a sharper trough and a more amplified solution, but it's very early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Continues to be a tad more amplified and less progressive through 36hrs. It's nice to see 249 users reading this topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Large surface low taking shape south of New Orleans in the Gulf. Picking up tons of moisture. One of the reasons why I don't see this being a dry system. Miller A's are typically very wet systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 yes some of us are even lurking from New England, always nice to see our fellow East Coast weenies salivating over the next european run. I hope you guys get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Trough continues to be sharper through 54 hours. None of these changes are Earth shattering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hour 57, large low over Mobile, AL with moisture almost up to Richmond, VA already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hour 60 precip approaching DC metro. Once again just a tick west of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 By 63 hours everything is definitely a bit west of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hour 63 surface low over southern GA. A large moisture field extends from DC on the North end to well into the Gulf on the South end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 By 63 hours everything is definitely a bit west of 00z Just let one person do the analysis- Please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 The trailing vort over the Dakotas is a bit stronger and further SW. Not sure yet what role that will play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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