PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GGEM WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 UKMET HIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 SLP looks identical to 00z at 12z Saturday. Basically kissing VA beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GGEM WOW looks like it blows up faster than 0z and a tick west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/NE/gfsNE_prec_precacc_087.gif 087.gif I'm usually in your corner, but the GFS is on an island right now... the OTS solutions are not impossible, but they are outliers. Where is the DM from last winter??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Inch plus of QPF on the CMC for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 992mb about 75 miles east of ACY. Heavy banding makes it back into NE PA. Temp profiles are a little dicey for the city and LI. Might taint for a few hours before flipping back to snow. It's an amazing run for interior northern NJ, SE NY and the Hudson Valley. It's pretty darn good for NYC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Well since this thread title references the weekend storm what do you think?Sorry boss lots of discussion here for both storms. Maybe u should start a thread for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Which storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Wrap around snows stretch all the way down to Cape May Saturday night as the CCB really cranks with a 982mb low kissing Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Local JP is HPN this run. Probably a band of 12"+ from MMU up through NE NJ into SE NY and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hartford, CT might be 18"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Well now we have the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Local JP is HPN this run. Probably a band of 12"+ from MMU up through NE NJ into SE NY and CT. Wow that's impressive! A bonafide MECS! If the EURO ticks west, I think we'll be golden. I think the GFS is an outlier and will adjust in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 2-1 to for our storm ( NAM and Ukmet for ) and (GFS against). Euro will play a huge role in how Upton positions its afternoon AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I like the relatively good agreement among most of the models probably due to the stability of the ridge out west as a few have already stated. Even the gfs isnt that far away from the other models all it takes is another 50 mile shift west to be more in line with the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 2-1 to for our storm ( NAM GGEM and Ukmet for ) and (GFS against). Euro will play a huge role in how Upton positions its afternoon AFD. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 2-1 to for our storm ( NAM and Ukmet for ) and (GFS against). Euro will play a huge role in how Upton positions its afternoon AFD. The JMA was a hit also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If I had to create a "cone of uncertainty" for this storm, the 6z GFS would be the eastern edge...Reason being, the upper level PNA ridge Axis is right along the PAC coast. Typically this ridge placement is a harbinger of a Gulf Coast storm that is going to "cut" , and jackpot, areas well inland, from Central Pa., to Albany NY. The PV, however is creating enough confluence, and progessiveness to prevent this from happening. So what we have here is a storm along the Gulf that has plenty of time and space to REALLY dig, while the PV wants to shunt this whole thing east. This is why I like a middle ground--or the center of my "cone"--as the BM, and the western edge of the "cone" about 100 miles northwest of there.... Getting this to close off at/near our lattitude will be challenging. The only ingredient I can see to make that happen for us, is if the shortwave moving through Ontario digs enough such that the Upper Level vorticity associated with it, begins to phase into our storm around hr 81, while the surface low is near OBX. I wish they did this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm usually in your corner, but the GFS is on an island right now... the OTS solutions are not impossible, but they are outliers. Where is the DM from last winter??? DS greasing my shovel for 1-3" of mix http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_96hr500bw.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Can anyone post the GEM snowmap? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm usually in your corner, but the GFS is on an island right now... the OTS solutions are not impossible, but they are outliers. Where is the DM from last winter??? Hey brother, nice to see you on. What's your thinking for this storm? United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 This is the warmest panel for the city on the 12z GGEM, probably a brief flip to plain rain here before temps cool again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Even Long Island eventually flips to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Beautiful look on the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Beautiful look on the cmc Beautiful isn't the word my friend... Wowzers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 A 19 hour event for the city from start to finish. About 06z to 01z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 A 19 hour event for the city from start to finish. About 06z to 01z. Is it snow in the city prior to that 'warm' frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Regardless if you are north of 78 and west of the Turnpike per that model it looks like an all/mostly snow/sleet event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Only out to 72 hours but it looks like the 12z JMA will be a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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