wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Max ratio is 1:10...above 12 inches is wish-casting. Based on NAM ouput, yes. Based on what the NAM track and strength would have produced IRL, it was not a wishcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS isn't out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS isn't out yet? It is. I don't see improvements from the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It is. I don't see improvements from the 06z run. It's wetter than the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It is. I don't see improvements from the 06z run.surprised 2 hear that.but that's still no reason for PBP to go missing. QPF for NYC under. 50?could someone kindly put up the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS isn't out yet? Usually starts around 10:30. I know it'll be about 11 by the time it gets to the storm but no updates? I was wondering the same. Or DM is scoring the win and it is OTS..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 12z GFS just eyeballing it is a little better than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 surprised 2 hear that.but that's still no reason for PBP to go missing. QPF for NYC under. 50? That's what happens when I'm busy. Sometimes someone else will pick up the slack but not always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 I really wouldn't want to be more than say 40-50 miles NW of the city with this one. You could theoretically get completely shafted in places like Sullivan County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 A track 150-200 miles southeast of ACY that ends up southeast of the benchmark isn't going to be very good for anyone here outside of the eastern 2/3rds of Long Island and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnowman26 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 What is the timeframe ? Will this thing be done by Saturday night ? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 12z GFS just eyeballing it is a little better than 06z. It slightly better than 6z , its not as good as it`s 0z or the 12z NAM , but the model bias is S and E we saw that with the Sunday storm that Don S pointed out . GOOD SLP placement , its just a matter if we can get this to close off 6 hours earlier to get everyone involved . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 w/ the NAM much farther NW w. the SLP and pecip than the GFS... you would have to say that the GFS is just not right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 And the second system develops too far offshore because the baroclinic zone gets dragged East with the first system. We probably need a coastal hugger with the first storm in order to cash in on the second one. Not enough time occurs in order to properly reload the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It slightly better than 6z , its not as good as it`s 0z or the 12z NAM , but the model bias is S and E we saw that with the Sunday storm that Don S pointed out . GOOD SLP placement , its just a matter if we can get this to close off 6 hours earlier to get everyone involved . So Pauly what does it show for snow amounts for NYC thru Monmouth? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 So Pauly what does it show for snow amounts for NYC thru Monmouth? Rossi Rossi , Get inside 48 hours then worry about it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 And the second system develops too far offshore because the baroclinic zone gets dragged East with the first system. We probably need a coastal hugger with the first storm in order to cash in on the second one. Not enough time occurs in order to properly reload the pattern. We miss both this place is going to be rough for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick5892 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We miss both this place is going to be rough for a whileUntil the next storm pops up and we all come crawling back for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We miss both this place is going to be rough for a while Lets be frank: these two storms can take a horrific winter and single handedly turn it above average but you also run the risk with a double shaft of turning this forum into a dark zone- not good. by 130am we will know pretty much where we stand with this. Naturally the Euro, if it comes in line with the NAM it will be like we won the W.S but if its eas tof the GFS then watch all hell break loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 A quick qpf comparison between the 12z and 6z runs of the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If I had to create a "cone of uncertainty" for this storm, the 6z GFS would be the eastern edge...Reason being, the upper level PNA ridge Axis is right along the PAC coast. Typically this ridge placement is a harbinger of a Gulf Coast storm that is going to "cut" , and jackpot, areas well inland, from Central Pa., to Albany NY. The PV, however is creating enough confluence, and progessiveness to prevent this from happening. So what we have here is a storm along the Gulf that has plenty of time and space to REALLY dig, while the PV wants to shunt this whole thing east. This is why I like a middle ground--or the center of my "cone"--as the BM, and the western edge of the "cone" about 100 miles northwest of there.... Getting this to close off at/near our lattitude will be challenging. The only ingredient I can see to make that happen for us, is if the shortwave moving through Ontario digs enough such that the Upper Level vorticity associated with it, begins to phase into our storm around hr 81, while the surface low is near OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z nam in more detail: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For the Mon - Tues storm a Neg tilted trough with the good lift through our area should not cut to DC . The ridge axis fine so there should be good height falls at our latitude . So at 120 it should come further N IMO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We miss both this place is going to be rough for a while Again the gfs is likely too far east as it was in the last storm when it was only 54 hrs out as Don stated. I feel it's probably going to end up about 50-75 miles further west than the 12z gfs shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 100 miles would be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Going off the B&W maps the GGEM looks pretty good through 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0z was solid as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/12/NE/gfsNE_prec_precacc_087.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If I had to create a "cone of uncertainty" for this storm, the 6z GFS would be the eastern edge...Reason being, the upper level PNA ridge Axis is right along the PAC coast. Typically this ridge placement is a harbinger of a Gulf Coast storm that is going to "cut" , and jackpot, areas well inland, from Central Pa., to Albany NY. The PV, however is creating enough confluence, and progessiveness to prevent this from happening. So what we have here is a storm along the Gulf that has plenty of time and space to REALLY dig, while the PV wants to shunt this whole thing east. This is why I like a middle ground--or the center of my "cone"--as the BM, and the western edge of the "cone" about 100 miles northwest of there.... Getting this to close off at/near our lattitude will be challenging. The only ingredient I can see to make that happen for us, is if the shortwave moving through Ontario digs enough such that the Upper Level vorticity associated with it, begins to phase into our storm around hr 81, while the surface low is near OBX. It's a rather vigorous s/w, but do you really see this having the energy to allow the vorticity ahead of it to phase in? United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Fairly certain the GGEM is a very big hit, waiting on SV to finish updating to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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