stlirish Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Tell you what I just checked the 6z ensembles....and basically each one of the gfs ensembles is a miss.Not good. Didn't you just say to ignore the 6z? Confused. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 ensembles is a different thing.If you modify the initial conditions...you get a better handle of the forecast than with set initial conditions...especially with poor sampled energy. Didn't you just say to ignore the 6z? Confused.Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 i really dont know why some people give you such a hard time somtimes...you offer alot to this forum and are one of the best non-mets here...it was impossible last night without you doing the pbp to figure out what the euro really looked like based on what other people were saying and not making sense Thanks man, it's always nice to get some positive feedback. I'll be around today for the 12z models, and if trends continue I might give the 00z Euro a go but tomorrow nights run will be a lot more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Thanks man, it's always nice to get some positive feedback. I'll be around today for the 12z models, and if trends continue I might give the 00z Euro a go but tomorrow nights run will be a lot more important. I agree. Isentropic, I've enjoyed your posting lately. Thanks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 ensembles is a different thing.If you modify the initial conditions...you get a better handle of the forecast than with set initial conditions...especially with poor sampled energy. Thanks, Robert. That makes a lot of sense. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Upton A POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES. HOWEVER...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND THE PRECIPITATION IN TERMS OF AMOUNT AND TYPE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 "highly dependent on strength and track of low" - a statement issued every time before a potential storm and very obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 "highly dependent on strength and track of low" - a statement issued every time before a potential storm and very obvious. We have people here who base their "forecast" on what upton (and mt holly) say 5 and 6 days before a storm. While it may be obvious to most, it needs to be said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Tell you what I just checked the 6z ensembles....and basically each one of the gfs ensembles is a miss.Not good. Except they aren't, unless you were expecting the NAM...which you shouldn't be. But there are certainly a handful of misses, no dancing around that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongIslandWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Except they aren't, unless you were expecting the NAM...which you shouldn't be. But there are certainly a handful of misses, no dancing around that. It's the 06z GFS. Take with a grain of salt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's the 06z GFS. Take with a grain of salt! I don't just throw out 6z and 18z runs within 5 days. Surface details for any 90 hr model prog should be taken with a "grain of salt." NWS had some publication out there, I can never seem to find it again, that showed that every successive GFS run verifies better than the previous one until you start getting out in lala land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Before one approaches the proverbial bridge following the 6z GFS run, one should consider the stunning lack of continuity between the oz and 6z runs this morning. In short, what the 0z GFS "giveth," the 6z GFS "taketh away." Some examples: Boston: 0z: 1.15"; 6z: .05"; Change: 1.10" Bridgeport: 0z: 0.83"; 6z: 0.02"; Change: 0.81" Islip: 0z: 1.20"; 6z: 0.26"; Change: 0.94" Providence: 0z: 1.59"; 6z: 0.17"; Change: 1.42" Considering the steadier ECMWF and also, even as I hesitate to give it credit in its fantasy range, the NAM, I suspect the 12z GFS will produce a wetter outcome than the 6z. Moreover, as a reminder, the 6z GFS had no rain for NYC 54 hours before the onset of Sunday's ice and rainstorm. A total of 2.10" precipitation fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 LR NAM (for the little its worth at this point) shows a very nice storm (6" or so) more just to the north... nice to have some agreement on the models even if its not perfect. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015012112&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=081 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Another weenie NAM run, some mixing issues for the immediate coast. NYC this run would go from ice to snow. FWIW the track of the low matches up very well with most of the 00z EPS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Perfect placement for the NAM if you live on the coast at this range . The more amped at this range the better , its omits the OTS worries and this models tendency is to be weaker and further east as it gets closer ( which would be colder at the coast ) . The NAM amped at this range is like seeing the GFS S and E 4 days out - take the bias into consideration when looking at that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Perfect placement for the NAM if you live on the coast at this range . The more amped at this range the better , its omits the OTS worries and this models tendency is to be weaker and further east as it gets closer ( which would be colder at the coast ) . The NAM amped at this range is like seeing the GFS S and E 4 days out - take the bias into consideration when looking at that . The NAM takes the perfect track. A little East and a lot of people here are smoking cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Perfect placement for the NAM if you live on the coast at this range . The more amped at this range the better , its omits the OTS worries and this models tendency is to be weaker and further east as it gets closer ( which would be colder at the coast ) . The NAM amped at this range is like seeing the GFS S and E 4 days out - take the bias into consideration when looking at that . I hear people referencing the GFS and it's bias a lot lately you need to remember the GFS as it stand right now is a new model and there isn't yet enough sample size to conclude a bias. The bias people are referencing has to do with the old GFS which is in the model cemetery. Just something I keep reading and felt needs to be addressed. I understand that you were just trying to make a point here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 12z NAM track would give the maximum area the most snowfall. In fact I would argue that QPF numbers are only going to increase as we get closer. This system has a direct feed out of the Gulf. Keep in mind these numbers include todays totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The NAM takes the perfect track. A little East and most people here are smoking cirrus. Sinking air on its west side is always a concern , ( like mixing is for us ) . but I would think the 1 inch line is further W than you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Oh brother. 50 miles SE 4 days out. Its over. I like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 12z NAM track would give the maximum area the most snowfall. In fact I would argue that QPF numbers are only going to increase as we get closer. This system has a direct feed out of the Gulf. Storms like this produce mesoscale banding that will not be seen until inside 36 hours . Where that sets up, you get smoked . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 00z EPS members were clustered on a track from coastal SC to just NE of OBX to about 50-75 miles East of ACY to near the benchmark. The spread is fairly large once you get to 96 hours with some members tracking inland over Long Island and into SNE while others miss the benchmark to the southeast. The problem remains the trailing energy that is helping to deamplify the flow at the last minute and push the system East. The key will be getting the system to close off at H5 which will help to slow down the flow and initiate a period of rapid intensification. What appears to be likely at this time is a rather potent but progressive system. Probably in and out in about twelve hours or so with 4-8" for the immediate coast, 3-6" just inland and 2-4" for NW NJ and West of the Hudson Valley. IsentropicLift for most improved NYC area poster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Sinking air on its west side is always a concern , ( like mixing is for us ) . but I would think the 1 inch line is further W than you . I'm trying to recall another miller A that was this dry and I can not off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Storms like this produce mesoscale banding that will not be seen until inside 36 hours . Where that sets up, you get smoked . Very true, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Before one approaches the proverbial bridge following the 6z GFS run, one should consider the stunning lack of continuity between the oz and 6z runs this morning. In short, what the 0z GFS "giveth," the 6z GFS "taketh away." Some examples: Boston: 0z: 1.15"; 6z: .05"; Change: 1.10" Bridgeport: 0z: 0.83"; 6z: 0.02"; Change: 0.81" Islip: 0z: 1.20"; 6z: 0.26"; Change: 0.94" Providence: 0z: 1.59"; 6z: 0.17"; Change: 1.42" Considering the steadier ECMWF and also, even as I hesitate to give it credit in its fantasy range, the NAM, I suspect the 12z GFS will produce a wetter outcome than the 6z. Moreover, as a reminder, the 6z GFS had no rain for NYC 54 hours before the onset of Sunday's ice and rainstorm. A total of 2.10" precipitation fell. There were a few terrible runs from the gfs and I agree there's been a complete lack of continuity. Some of the models runs only 6 hrs apart are like night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12Z NAM has a great look to the storm. Solid 8-16 inches of snow for many people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12Z NAM has a great look to the storm. Solid 8-16 inches of snow for many people. Agree. If the storm and track played out like the 12z NAM depicts, it would mean the most snow for the most amount of posters. Probably 10 and maybe even 12+ for all. And toss the ARWs from the SREFs and you have a similar look as the NAM. There is verrryyy little chance this system gets fully shunted out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Before one approaches the proverbial bridge following the 6z GFS run, one should consider the stunning lack of continuity between the oz and 6z runs this morning. In short, what the 0z GFS "giveth," the 6z GFS "taketh away." Some examples: Boston: 0z: 1.15"; 6z: .05"; Change: 1.10" Bridgeport: 0z: 0.83"; 6z: 0.02"; Change: 0.81" Islip: 0z: 1.20"; 6z: 0.26"; Change: 0.94" Providence: 0z: 1.59"; 6z: 0.17"; Change: 1.42" Considering the steadier ECMWF and also, even as I hesitate to give it credit in its fantasy range, the NAM, I suspect the 12z GFS will produce a wetter outcome than the 6z. Moreover, as a reminder, the 6z GFS had no rain for NYC 54 hours before the onset of Sunday's ice and rainstorm. A total of 2.10" precipitation fell. There were a few terrible runs from the gfs and I agree there's been a complete lack of continuity. Some of the models runs only 6 hrs apart are like night and day. These tremendous swings from one run to the next, even as the pattern has not dramatically changed within 6 hours or no dramatic details have emerged during that time is disconcerting to say the least. 6z GFS notwithstanding, my early thoughts concerning qpf (not necessarily all snow) for select cities are: < 0.25": Poughkeepsie Scranton 025"-0.75": Baltimore Boston Bridgeport New York City Newark Philadelphia Washington, DC (IAD and DCA) > 0.75": Islip Providence Of course, things can change. But that's my thinking right now and the 6z GFS has had little influence on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Max ratio is 1:10...above 12 inches is wish-casting. 12Z NAM has a great look to the storm. Solid 8-16 inches of snow for many people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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