MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Position looks northeast of last nights run @- 0z Sunday eur-96.gif It's right over the benchmark. Great track for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's right over the benchmark. Great track for our area. Track looks great a 970 over the bm lol lots of potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NW side of the precip field looks strange. anywho a good step in the right direction. perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That moves 35 miles west we are all in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It sped up a little I guess... Yes Rjay Upper level jet is hot (fast) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012100/gfs-ens_uv250_us_15.png http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/00/US/ecmwfUS_200_spd_072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Again it moves slightly West you have near blizzard conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I lie is a major snowstorm. Gefs is a significant snowstorm. We will ser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yes Rjay Upper level jet is hot (fast) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012100/gfs-ens_uv250_us_15.png http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/00/US/ecmwfUS_200_spd_072.gif Crap deleted my post by accident. The flow is pretty progressive but look at h5 and the 300mb jet. They scream big storm. H5 just doesn't close off and the storm slips just far enough east to not crush the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Is it possible to get this to close off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Is it possible to get this to close off?Yes. It's a hat trick, but it's very possible. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Is it possible to get this to close off? J tell me what you think step thru the loop http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2015012100&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=400 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2015012100/gfs-ens_z500_vort_us_17.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Crap deleted my post by accident. The flow is pretty progressive but look at h5 and the 300mb jet. They scream big storm. H5 just doesn't close off and the storm slips just far enough east to not crush the whole area. Spot on 6-8 hr window per euro (my est atm) I will put my money on this horse http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f072_ussm.gif http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f096_ussm.gif http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_usbg_animation.html system stretches out - elongates you can see this idea on the latest euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I have to hand it to you man.....you tell people none of what they want to hear lately, but you don't play it safe with your guesses. Hopefully you're wrong here, but based on how this winter has gone so far, it's very possible that this doesn't turn into the strong low that some models are showing it aa I have to hand it to you ? Omg I love Tommy , but he's been humping OTS for a week now. If it snows a flake it was a bad forecast. The problem is we are not getting a flake but a snowstorm so instead of 12 hours of heavy snow and sleet it's 8 or 9 ? And that's the cover my ÷×÷forecast . The euro is 974 SE of the BM . Since we all crash and burn at times I think the more credible thing to do was say hey I F d up. I thought it was OTS but it looks like most of you will be shoveling. But that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Sue Me when the storm is over....... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1421831196 I didn't forget that stock. Will know today. BTW 6Z NAM flat out cold snowstorm for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 6z nam looks great for the interior. Coastal NJ, long island and NYC have mixing issues, but then again it's at the nams long range. It's good to see the nam still amped up the way it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 6z GFS is south and east of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 6z GFS is south and east of 0z. oh brother.....that dm is crazy http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012106/gfs_apcpn_us_19.png well excuse me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 How is the se ridge looking this morning? Looks like less of an influence on the 6z GFS? Does that mean it's game on? Oh no...it means no storm at all. Because heights HAVE to rise ahead of any storm that tracks up the EC. Less height rises, less precip. Fact is, unless it is last winter, the coast almost always has to worry about mixing with every single EC storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I still think this is a case where we get scraped by an intense developing storm - but may just nick us... interested in tonight's 00Z suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 oh brother.....that dm is crazy http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012106/gfs_apcpn_us_19.png so.gif well excuse me Oh brother. 50 miles SE 4 days out. Its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 oh brother.....that dm is crazy http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012106/gfs_apcpn_us_19.png so.gif well excuse me Haha! The 6z GFS stands alone. Yeah, let's go with that solution ftw 3 days out. Said no one ever. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 oh brother.....that dm is crazy http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012106/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015012106/gfs_apcpn_us_19.png so.gif well excuse me Just do us a favor, and don't delete these posts like you did the ones where you were arguing for a storm track 400 miles southeast of the 06z GFS a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just do us a favor, and don't delete these posts like you did the ones where you were arguing for a storm track 400 miles southeast of the 06z GFS a few days ago. JC make your call!!!! everyone here knows mine is OTS dm http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/06/NE/gfsNE_prec_precacc_240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NOT OTS is my call. For the record. NYC Metro 4-8". If I'm wrong, I'll own it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You guys are wasting time looking at the 6z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 JC make your call!!!! everyone here knows mine OTS dm http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/06/NE/gfsNE_prec_precacc_240.gif gfsNE_prec_precacc_240.gif Define OTS though. A few days ago, you were circling GFS OP mslp progs off the coast of Georgia.Plus, it's still 4 days out, and speaking in probabilities is more in line with the current capabilities of the science. I think missing east is more likely than west, although my longitude is not the same as most in this subforum outside of eastern LI. And by missing east, I mean something along the lines of the 06z GFS, which is a near miss. The GFS is now the E outlier. The 06z GEFS, while SE of the euro/cmc products, is also NW of the OP. The goalposts have been narrowed significantly over the past 48 hours IMO. Differences between the 0z GFS and 06z GFS at 4 days out is model noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Tell you what I just checked the 6z ensembles....and basically each one of the gfs ensembles is a miss.Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 00z EPS members were clustered on a track from coastal SC to just NE of OBX to about 50-75 miles East of ACY to near the benchmark. The spread is fairly large once you get to 96 hours with some members tracking inland over Long Island and into SNE while others miss the benchmark to the southeast. The problem remains the trailing energy that is helping to deamplify the flow at the last minute and push the system East. The key will be getting the system to close off at H5 which will help to slow down the flow and initiate a period of rapid intensification. What appears to be likely at this time is a rather potent but progressive system. Probably in and out in about twelve hours or so with 4-8" for the immediate coast, 3-6" just inland and 2-4" for NW NJ and West of the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Great news for the interior folks. Is this all you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nygmen Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The 00z EPS members were clustered on a track from coastal SC to just NE of OBX to about 50-75 miles East of ACY to near the benchmark. The spread is fairly large once you get to 96 hours with some members tracking inland over Long Island and into SNE while others miss the benchmark to the southeast. The problem remains the trailing energy that is helping to deamplify the flow at the last minute and push the system East. The key will be getting the system to close off at H5 which will help to slow down the flow and initiate a period of rapid intensification. What appears to be likely at this time is a rather potent but progressive system. Probably in and out in about twelve hours or so with 4-8" for the immediate coast, 3-6" just inland and 2-4" for NW NJ and West of the Hudson Valley. i really dont know why some people give you such a hard time somtimes...you offer alot to this forum and are one of the best non-mets here...it was impossible last night without you doing the pbp to figure out what the euro really looked like based on what other people were saying and not making sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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