USCG RS Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Don't get carried away. We can all count numerous occasions where 1-2 foot storms progged at 96 hours turned into 1-2 feet of weenie tears. And I think the issue of the warm preceding setup is real if the low doesn't bomb out quickly in a favorable track for the area. If this is too progressive, it may be a moderate event for the NYC area and much bigger for eastern New England.Of course all of these are potential flies in the ointment. All I'm saying is this storm is a power house with a heck of a lot of dynamics and energy to play with. Yes, many things could go wrong, but imho, the potential for a widespread tri-state area Snowstorm of 12+ is there. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 30 mile shift north west that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Great news for the interior folks. Don't look to the ensembles for temps. They are often way too smoothed out and it's a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 30 mile shift north west that's it Need about at 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Canadian snow map ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Don't let it get to you there is definitely some excess hype already going on. It did trend warmer and I agree about the CCB. The question is whether the model is correct. The synoptics of the storm argue for a strong CCB. The GGEM says the GFS CCB is underdone, and a lot of individual GFS ensembles also say the OP GFS is underdone with the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 lol... not even close. Yea I lol'd hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Look at some of these members. 90 hours. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip00090.gif 96 hours (!!!!) http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip00096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Damn, weakest member on there is still 991mb. Most all others are sub 980mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Exciting times at least I am! Those individual members have some fascinating outcomes...IMO still too early to focus on SLP (can tell by spread) but h5 not awful... fun tracking next few days! Winter is here boys and girls... someone will get smoked, hopefully most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yea I lol'd hard. Closer to 1888 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Great news for the interior folks. Considering we are still 90 or so hours away I would say the interior is in a good spot right now. The trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Look at some of these members. 90 hours. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip00090.gif 96 hours (!!!!) http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesUSPrecip00096.gif Dsnow - love this graphic, from the perspective of the fairly small panels making the classic "comma-head," indicative of a major storm, stand out more, visually, than when one is looking at a very large graphic, with a ton of other elements vying for the eye's attention. Don't know if that was your intent or if this is well known amongst mets, but I never really noticed it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 West of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 West of 12z Looks like snow to start for NYC before 850s warm up. Then 850s crash as the low starts to crank up. City goes back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 975mb low over the benchmark by 102 Surface low track looks okay, but NW side of the precip shield is still strange. It should theoretically chance though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Intense low looks like it tracks a tick SE of the BM. H5 never closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 If a 975 over the bm get us great snow I quit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Cold run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Snowmap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 So I take that it's further west... but colder? All I can see is the 974 south of CC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Several inches on the Euro for the area. Round 2 is really nice also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Round 2 (of that same storm ) OR u mean next Tue storm :?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Wow.....just coming in to check what some are saying for the euro and its west, east, warmer, colder, not as much precip and tons of precip all in one run. An impressive storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Round 2 (of that same storm ) OR u mean next Tue storm :?? Next Tues at 500 mb is the best you can get. If we can adjust the whole trough slightly west...we will get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Round 2 (of that same storm ) OR u mean next Tue storm :?? Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Position looks northeast of last nights run @- 0z Sunday http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015012100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Another shift wrst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That's a great look for late jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.