PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 show me an AFD or any other professional outlet discussion that even mentions the NAV The only reason the NAVGEM ( which I believe is last in skill scoring ) solution is being thrown around is because the Euro OP and its ensembles have quasi rallied to it . The Control has it and the ensembles are really close . Saturn posted this MT HOLLY . FOR FRIDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...THEN A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE CYCLOGENSIS INVOF THE EAST COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO GO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. So they are at the very least intrigued . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The only reason the NAVGEM ( which I believe is last in skill scoring ) solution is being thrown around is because the Euro OP and its ensembles have quasi rallied to it . The Control has it and the ensembles are really close . Saturn posted this MT HOLLY . FOR FRIDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...THEN A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE CYCLOGENSIS INVOF THE EAST COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO GO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. So they are at the very least intrigued . cras has to be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 cras has to be worse. Not scored . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 cras has to be worse. Hopefully it shows a 970mb low right over PIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not scored .i agree with you 100% about navgem being the worst model but you have to go back the last 2 months and I've been paying attention to this model particularly because it got the cutter right for Christmas Eve way before GFS, CMC got it. Ukmet looks like the best one for the track and euro is still the king imo. I certainly think the models will keep trending north especially the fact the euro control and its ensembles trended north... Let's see Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hopefully it shows a 970mb low right over PIT.honestly bud I don't have the link to the cras... Ask yanksfan for that he's got it on speed dial Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hopefully it shows a 970mb low right over PIT. It will eventually show a 912mb low over Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The only reason the NAVGEM ( which I believe is last in skill scoring ) solution is being thrown around is because the Euro OP and its ensembles have quasi rallied to it . The Control has it and the ensembles are really close . Saturn posted this MT HOLLY . FOR FRIDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...THEN A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE CYCLOGENSIS INVOF THE EAST COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. TEMPS ARE PROJECTED TO GO BELOW NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK... WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. So they are at the very least intrigued . A good number of the GFS ensembles showed a closer to the coast solution on the latest run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It will eventually show a 912mb low over Cleveland. And then a 1016mb 300 miles off of the Carolina coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GFS is a touch north of 18z, and notably north of 12z. Threat is certainly not dead, though the setup at 500 mb is pretty underwhelming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yep even the navgem lost the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Some of you guys really need to just relax . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Some are reading bad analysis away . Guys jumping the gun away saying it didn`t phase at 48 so it`s dead . Its not his fault . In fairness to him the run recovered as the northern stream phased in later . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ruling out a storm when all global models show a deepening low off OBX 120 hours out is downright foolish IMO. Canadian and Euro will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 little warm no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 00z Ukmet is way out to sea. Making matters worse it's takes the baroclinic zone it with for the Monday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 little warm no? lol yeh that`s the worry 5 days out huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 lol yeh that`s the worry 5 days out huhMy sentiments exactly United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 00z Ukmet is way out to sea. Making matters worse it's takes the baroclinic zone it with for the Monday storm.seems concerning to me. I think Ukmet is by far the most consistent model as far as the track goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Canadian out through 96 hours...cold air is escaping ne. Models now seeing lack of north stream interaction and strong high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 gfs.pngWithout blocking, this is a very real possibility and concerning. We really need the NAO and AO to start cooperating. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 0z ggem at 108 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Canadian is coming north at 108 hours. Trough is neutral in the se 1004 off the banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I guess in all here.....the main point is that there's nothing to suggest that any solution at the moment will produce anything too much different than we've seen so far this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Canadian out through 96 hours...cold air is escaping ne. Models now seeing lack of north stream interaction and strong high. What models ? The NAVGEM and GGEM are hits . These definitive statements 5 to 6 days out should be left out . There are so many SW in the pattern the models will need to get closer as to which one to key on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 GGEM is a really close miss . Just offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Canadian is coming north at 108 hours. Trough is neutral in the se 1004 off the banks. Its showing a graze... Mainly east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Precip shield ends up barely missing us at 120 hours. Sub 990 low se of BM on cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Its showing a graze... Mainly east.. Snows in SNJ But it`s close too now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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