IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 bashing one of your best posters (bluewave) , wow. no wonder everyone leaves. Yes because giving out wrong info definitely makes him one of the best posters. Read Dsnowx53's response to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 widespread 1-2ft - that part... nothing in this pattern suggests that... sure throw me the one or two anomalous storms (theres always one or two), but let's use some judgement. nothing suggests this being close to 1-2ft I disagree. I think some areas could definitely see 12"+. All you need is another 20 mile NW shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0z GGEM snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS trended warmer on round 1 0z and the CCB looks overdone. Round 2 still in fantasy range But keep bringing the hype since it make the reading more fun Don't let it get to you there is definitely some excess hype already going on. It did trend warmer and I agree about the CCB. The question is whether the model is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GGEM would be a perfect DCA-BOS MECS. Too far away to put much faith in it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ggem is a bow wash special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I disagree. I think some areas could definitely see 12"+. All you need is another 20 mile NW shift. never said someone "couldn't" see 12" - widespread 1-2 is a MUCH different call.. we both know random areas seeing 12+ is always possible in SECS but saying we're close to 1-2 ft widespread is different.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 never said someone "couldn't" see 12" - widespread 1-2 is a MUCH different call.. we both know random areas seeing 12+ is always possible in SECS but saying we're close to 1-2 ft widespread is different..With all due respect that's a very real possibility. The dynamics in play with that pva and jet streak could very easily yield a widespread storm we measure in feet. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 never said someone "couldn't" see 12" - widespread 1-2 is a MUCH different call.. we both know random areas seeing 12+ is always possible in SECS but saying we're close to 1-2 ft widespread is different.. He didn't state it as a definite. The potential is there for widespread 1-2 ft but its an outlier and I'm pretty sure Snow88 recognizes that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 KU incoming on gfs at 300 hours...wow!! What's KU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 never said someone "couldn't" see 12" - widespread 1-2 is a MUCH different call.. we both know random areas seeing 12+ is always possible in SECS but saying we're close to 1-2 ft widespread is different.. Respectfully disagree again. I think 12"+ will be the norm wherever the best banding parks itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 With all due respect that's a very real possibility. The dynamics in play with that pva and jet streak could very easily yield a widespread storm we measure in feet. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer respect your opinion, as you know. I will respectfully disagree on a widespread storm we measure in feet but will be more than happy to buy ya a beer if I'm wrong moving on as for once in a long time we have a threat to monitor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 What's KU? The kind of large storm that would make it into Paul Kocin's and Louis Uccellini's Northeast Snowstorms books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The gefs mean looks really nice. Good track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 One must ponder how much further the low trends NW on the models the few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It will be key to see how fast the coastal can deepen and the upper level dynamics stop the northward pull of the warm air. Initially we have a low travelling through southern Canada, and the upper level flow is from the southwest. This pulls up the warm air before the upper level dynamics can make the cold air crash back SE. It could be a situation where there is a front end that is snow that changes to a mix for a while near the coast but then changes back to a thumping heavy snow as the CCB forms. There would be an even better chance at heavy snow amounts (over 8") if the 500mb low can close off for a time. Right now though it looks like a fickle setup that can change quickly. I thought last night that the overall pattern supported some kind of hit, but hopefully the warm preceding setup doesn't ruin it and the progressive pattern nudge it too far east or cause a too-late development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 00z GEFS mean looks well West, warm of course but it's a mean so pay it no attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0z GGEM snowmap Only about 1,600 miles southwest until I'm in the bullseye!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 00z GEFS mean looks well West, warm of course but it's a mean so pay it no attention. West of the OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Only about 1,600 miles southwest until I'm in the bullseye!! Wish you were here to enjoy it man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 00z GEFS mean looks well West, warm of course but it's a mean so pay it no attention. Great news for the interior folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 .75"-1" of QPF on the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 With all due respect that's a very real possibility. The dynamics in play with that pva and jet streak could very easily yield a widespread storm we measure in feet. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Don't get carried away. We can all count numerous occasions where 1-2 foot storms progged at 96 hours turned into 1-2 feet of weenie tears. And I think the issue of the warm preceding setup is real if the low doesn't bomb out quickly in a favorable track for the area. If this is too progressive, it may be a moderate event for the NYC area and much bigger for eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Great news for the interior folks. It's a great hit for the coast also. Everyone wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It will be key to see how fast the coastal can deepen and the upper level dynamics stop the northward pull of the warm air. Initially we have a low travelling through southern Canada, and the upper level flow is from the southwest. This pulls up the warm air before the upper level dynamics can make the cold air crash back SE. It could be a situation where there is a front end that is snow that changes to a mix for a while near the coast but then changes back to a thumping heavy snow as the CCB forms. There would be an even better chance at heavy snow amounts (over 8") if the 500mb low can close off for a time. Right now though it looks like a fickle setup that can change quickly. I thought last night that the overall pattern supported some kind of hit, but hopefully the warm preceding setup doesn't ruin it and the progressive pattern nudge it too far east or cause a too-late development. That sort of sounds like January 26th 2011. Not saying this will be the same outcome like that one was tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Given the storm should explode even a further west track might not be a bad thing. We'd really be getting into the core of those intense dynamics as temps crash. I'll sacrifice rain and taint if the payoff is significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Wish you were here to enjoy it man. Here it's going to be a big nuisance. It hit 80 degrees today at AUS, and this is bringing us up to 2" of rain and crashing the temps down. Blehh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That sort of sounds like January 26th 2011. Not saying this will be the same outcome like that one was tho.. That was somewhat different as the 500mb low was much stronger and closed off. That's what generated the massive snow rates that night as those dynamics pinwheeled up the coast, not so much the surface low. That and 12/30/00 were the two most dynamic snow events I've experienced. That night for at least a couple hours it was almost impossible to see even across the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.