IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 False.. Then why are QPF totals < 0.25" combined for both storms near say Hackettstown, NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Never seen so many people quoting the NAM at 84 hours. Clearly, emotion has won over reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The storm next week looks like the blizzard of 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The UKMET looks big too, it may be east right now but close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 The second storm has a very sharp cut off West of the center of NJ. Very Boxing Day esque. Most places in Warren County saw 3-5" with Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS has another storm at 189 hours. So we have 3 storms to track within a week. Wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS trended warmer on round 1 0z and the CCB looks overdone. Round 2 still in fantasy range But keep bringing the hype since it make the reading more fun Warmer? 850s crash when the low explodes. Round 2 isn't fantasy since all of the models have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For those interested the NavGEM goes over 38N/70W and is a miss, so far the NAM and NavGEM are where you'd expect, the Euro may be west of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Warmer? 850s crash when the low explodes. Round 2 isn't fantasy since all of the models have it. Definitely still in fantasy range (5 days +) even though the set up looks really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm guilty of it as well but we should try and keep this thread only about Saturday's threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS has another storm at 189 hours. So we have 3 storms to track within a week. Wonderful. The next week threat is strong upper low dropping from Canada..really remind me of 1978, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Warmer? 850s crash when the low explodes. Round 2 isn't fantasy since all of the models have it. Second storm is way too far out still, this storm is going to happen without a doubt, but it could shift 75-100 miles which is significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Cmc is really amped...it's coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This can be a widespread 1-2 feet storm if it closes off sooner nothing about this is even close to correct... OR I could say, if this storm looked like 96, everyone would have 2-3 feet - let's be real here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 nothing about this is even close to correct... OR I could say, if this storm looked like 96, everyone would have 2-3 feet - let's be real here. Uh? What's not correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 00z UKMET at 96 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 His post is not far off this hits the bm it's going to be real interesting. 1/11 is an interesting analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Cmc is a hit. Would like to see temp Profiles though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The CMC may be rain to heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Late January and it's been cold it rides the coast winds flip we are so in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 GGEM is way NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Clipper dropping an inch or two we will be slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GFS trended warmer on round 1 0z and the CCB looks overdone. Round 2 still in fantasy range But keep bringing the hype since it make the reading more fun How is the CCB overdone? The PVA and jet streak orientation is ideal for plenty of synoptic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 All snow for nyc and a lot of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 GGEM is a huge hit, it's colder and wetter than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 His post is not far off this hits the bm it's going to be real interesting. 1/11 is an interesting analog. H5 would need to close off earlier. It would also probably help cool the column quicker and tug the low closer to the coast. But since models are not showing that right now, it's really not worth a real discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 And the GGEM shows the wonders of strong PVA, kissing strong jet streaks, and strong dynamics. Temperatures aren't an issue and the entire area gets dumped with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Uh? What's not correct? widespread 1-2ft - that part... nothing in this pattern suggests that... sure throw me the one or two anomalous storms (theres always one or two), but let's use some judgement. nothing suggests this being close to 1-2ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 GGEM is all snow for the area and a lot of it with a CCB over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 0.75"+ makes it NW of MMU on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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