Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Doorman what synoptically in your opinion would favor a southern outcome 56 run thru all the GEFS SPAG guidance and judge for yourself.....you can do it with ease pick any chart then loop it---bingo you get to spot the trends for the 24-25th time frame http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GEFS-SPAG&area=ATLANTIC&ps=area Step thru the Images at 200mb http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgefs-spag%2F18%2Fgefs-spag_atlantic_096_200_1176_ht.gif&model=gefs-spag&area=atlantic&storm=&cycle=18¶m=200_1176_ht&fhr=096&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150120+18+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 remember this also the Winter Flights and extra RAOB ingest should make the data a bit more stable -imho dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I can read a model just like everyone else synoptically or climatologically speaking what makes you think it goes south of current model guidance? Not trying to undermind you but I'm trying to see other than some gefs members being south why you think it comes south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The SE Ridge has been there all month so far in the means due to the +AO. You are not seeing a transient feature as the Euro and ensemble mean are just amplifying the SE Ridge yet again this month ahead of the storm. That's why seasonal trends matter until they are reversed by a lasting pattern change. The passage of this storm knocks it down for a while so the strong clipper behind it will have more cold to work with next week. 500.gif ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_5.png The pattern right now has changed drastically from the Jan 1-12 period, such that a comparison would be apples to oranges. The AO and NAO were both fluctuating between +2 to +3 SD, the EPO was strongly negative, and the PNA averaging neutral to negative. These indicators support a ridge just offshore. Currently, we have a slightly negative AO/NAO, a positive PNA, and positive EPO. Actually the inverse pattern of January 1st-12th. The indices are all in opposite modalities and the 500mb pattern significantly different. The current regime does not support a SE-ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I can read a model just like everyone else synoptically or climatologically speaking what makes you think it goes south of current model guidance? Not trying to undermind you but I'm trying to see other than some gefs members being south why you think it comes south 56 Northern Jet stream... pushing energy south euro has this general idea on its 200mb chart .... at 120hrs timing it exact...your guess is as good as mine http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/12/US/ecmwfUS_200_spd_120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I can read a model just like everyone else synoptically or climatologically speaking what makes you think it goes south of current model guidance? Not trying to undermind you but I'm trying to see other than some gefs members being south why you think it comes south He doesn't know...at least until CPC puts it in writing, so he can repost it here as his forecast and then add a trolling popcorn smiley to twist the knife a bit. DM has a lot riding on this winter after his stellar performance last winter. He has spent the past couple of weeks cherry picking not just models, but weird charts that no one ever uses to support his no snow call. Bygones on all of that. As of this Sunday, his streak is likely to come to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 56 Northern Jet stream... pushing energy south euro has this general idea on its 200mb chart .... http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/12/US/ecmwfUS_200_spd_120.gif So in your opinion the storm gets shunted south? Mid Atlantic special? The eps that I looked at had almost all of the lows inside the bm or right on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Whats the 18z Euro showing for Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Whats the 18z Euro showing for Saturday? Nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Whats the 18z Euro showing for Saturday? The Euro only runs twice a day 00z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Whats the 18z Euro showing for Saturday? Euro only runs twice per day- 12z and 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The Euro only runs twice a day 00z and 12z Oo ok thanks for that info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Great trends today with the models, esp after such hostile patterns over the last several weeks. Small steps..I wouldn't look at details much right now. Trends with the upper air pattern @ 5h and then we'll worry about 850h and surface closer to the weekend. Oh weekend rule? Edit: 12z Euro and GFS 1-20-2015 for 72hrs...Fri 12z.... setup before storm... not bad... 50/50 low in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ooookkk. I will say it again. Height rises have accompanied every single storm that has ever moved up the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Love the deletions going on right now. So I will say it again. Height rises have accompanied every single storm that has ever moved up the EC. The coast is always the battleground with big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The coast is always the battleground with big storms. Correct. Unless it is the winter of 2013-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Correct. Unless it is the winter of 2013-14. Actually there were 4 or 5 events where the coast was the battle ground..but all in all it was frigid during a bunch of these storms even at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ooookkk. I will say it again. Height rises have accompanied every single storm that has ever moved up the EC.you're missing bluewave's point. he means a se ridge pattern, not just height rises ahead of a shortwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Actually there were 4 or 5 events where the coast was the battle ground..but all in all it was frigid during a bunch of these storms even at the coast. The mid-December storm was a bit of a sloppy mix but some areas made out a bit better than expected as temps stayed below freezing a bit longer than expected. The January storms were very cold. February though we were really on the battleground for those, particularly the Post-SB storm and the mid-February biggie with the ice storm in between. I'm looking forward to Ray updating his Winter Storm archive. Would be great if he could input some radar loops as part of that archive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0 z nam look like a coastal hugger and warm at the end of its range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 00z NAM gets heavy snow back to Western PA. It's super amped and a huge hit for the interior with ice from NYC to the PA line. Right where you want it at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Mixing for basically everyone on the 00z NAM. Barely worth mentioning, but hey we're going to anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 0 z nam look like a coastal hugger and warm at the end of its range going to be difficult to avoid a sloppy mess here it begins as a period of snow then ice and a mix of various precip types then back to snow - big mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 The NAM is where you want it to be. If it was offshore I'd be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 00z NAM gets heavy snow back to Western PA. It's super amped and a huge hit for the interior with ice from NYC to the PA line. Right where you want it at this range. Usually I'd restrict any NAM 84 hour discussion to the banter thread, but since its in between runs in here I'll limit this to one post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The surface at KNYC is 32 at hour 84 If there was a next frame to the NAM Everyone would be flipping back to heavy snow and blizzard conditions would occur all the way to the coast. The NAM surges the 850's N but once that SLP gets to about Asbury the winds turn NE and the whole column collapses . Look at the VV the system is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 The NAM is where you want it to be. If it was offshore I'd be worried. If anything its not far west enough, its clearly headed NE at hour 84 and probably headed for a track over or just east of MTP...I'd almost want it a bit more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I agree an amped up Nam is usually a good sign at 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For a model at the end of it's range, that's a really intriguing look and that it's not out to sea, including a nice look at the 500mb chart Superstorm posted. Perhaps it's just me but it looked very strange going from the 69h to 72h panels. Precip shield looked like it got salted or something. In a marginal pattern/so-so indices, this is a pretty healthy look right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That would be a historic icing event on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That would be a historic icing event on the nam. I think Upton learned its lesson from the Sunday icing fiasco........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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