Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 hr 93 big hit in the mid atlantic accumulating snow up to ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hour 93 steady precip approaching the city. Surface low east of Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 hr 96 mod preciep in the area..surface is warm...850;s plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 hr 99 best part of the ccb missing to our east...looks a bit east of 12z..still a very strong storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hour 96 850's crashing. Bombing out off the VA coast. Hour 99 about 150 miles off the NJ Coast. 988mb. Real heavy stuff right at the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 just use this page: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/avnloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Closes off at hour 102 right over the benchmark. Rapid intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 976mb east of the benchmark. Far NW NJ is nearly dry while the coast is close to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 needs to close off sooner to be anything meaningful on the gfs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 We need it to close off 6-12 hours sooner and we're in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yup 12 hours to late for everyone to get in on the goods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 not bad at all for D4/D5 - close off a little sooner and we're in business - no point over analyzing - plenty of time to do that thursday/friday we have a storm with a pretty solid track - devil in the details - we'll see... my biggest concern is this gets shunted to our south, but put those odds at around 50% right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Again, precip is confined to the immediate LPA on the 18z GFS. Why are people obsessing with QPF this far out? I'm not saying we will or won't get a big storm, but the QPF field is consistently the least accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice SW dropping down at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think we are in a good spot right now. I wouldn't want a bullseye yet. Lack of -AO seems to argue for a stronger SE ridge and a west track. The negative tilt won't hurt either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The GFS is usually too far east and cold for EC storms at this range. You do realize if this closes off 6 hours early you JP right ? That is just as viable as a warmer BL solution . 4 days to go , hang in there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 No, it begins its rebound before the storm reaches our latitude as the PV is over the Davis Strait on Saturday. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens®ion=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015012012&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=472 Not really. The heights build back into north pole again between 72hr and 96hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Forgive my ignorance what is Jp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 JP =jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Man, if we somehow end up losing this thing we're gonna have to close down shop here for at least a day or two to recover...the traffic here is the biggest since last winter right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Man, if we somehow end up losing this thing we're gonna have to close down shop here for at least a day or two to recover...the traffic here is the biggest since last winter right now. Ugh-let's hope not. Doubt it goes out to sea now, my worst fear is it ends up an inland runner and we rain like we have for every other storm this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Look at 500mb, at 4-5 days out that is all you can ask for, stop worrying about the QPF, if that shortwave ends up as modeled the precip shield will be much farther west than is being shown. The Day 7 event is also interesting, as it would also have colder air to work with, however it is rare to get two major storms that close together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The important part is that the AO rebound allows the more amplified Euro run to have a stronger SE Ridge ahead of the low introducing P-Type issues for the coast instead of a 100% snow solution. I don't really have a guess at specific snow amounts so early in the game, just that the Euro loses a percentage to liquid instead of being all frozen. A more -AO ahead of the storm would have raised the prospects for all snow or a suppressed storm if the AO was too strong. I still disagree. The pattern over the next 24-36 hours, when the AO will be negative, is actually more favorable for a SE ridging than later this week, when heights will be building over northern Greenland and the presence of the SE Canadian vortex prevents significant height rises ahead of the upstream s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Not really. The heights build back into north pole again between 72hr and 96hr. Agree. 500mb height wise / synoptically, improvements occur over the next several days even though the index AO goes from -1 to near +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Why are people obsessing with QPF this far out? I'm not saying we will or won't get a big storm, but the QPF field is consistently the least accurate.Thank you. *thumbs up* United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 I think that you are arguing semantics rather than looking at the bigger picture of the pattern. But we can agree to disagree. To be clear, I'm not making any remarks concerning the specifics of the storm. My principal argument is that synoptically, there's really not much room for a SE ridge. I think the bigger risk with this situation is less amplification and an offshore / near miss scenario. The antecedent confluence, upstream ridge spike, and east based blocking argue against a coastal hugger / inland runner. As you said, agree to disagree here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 If there is no room for a SE Ridge, than why is the Euro and its ensemble mean showing one ahead of the low? I think that you are making a theoretical argument rather than looking what the model is showing. I think you're misunderstanding what a SE-ridge truly is. Any amplifying short wave, especially one which acquires a neutral to negative tilt will cause height rises out ahead of it. However, those height rises are a transient occurrence, and part and parcel of a rapidly intensifying cyclone. Look at the 500mb progression. There's no SE ridge over the next few days, and there's no SE-ridge following the storm. The height rises are very brief and clearly associated with the amplifying southern short wave. Additionally, the amplitude of the PNA / western ridge destructively interferes with the development of a SE ridge. The synoptic pattern we currently have is not one that is conducive for the formation or maintenance of a SE ridge feature, due primarily to the upstream meridional ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 the ao was forecast to drop to near -2...if it does it raises the chances for a snow event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Simple 500 mb guidance trends ATM OPC- GEFS Spag combo first frame --almost a spot on match 96hrs out frames 2-5 GEFS 564dm trend is on the move south looking for small clues... that is all http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=096ℑ=data%2Fgefs-spag%2F12%2Fgefs-spag_atlantic_096_500_522_564_ht.gif&model=gefs-spag&area=atlantic¶m=500_522_564_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150120+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Doorman what synoptically in your opinion would favor a southern outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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