USCG RS Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This reminds me a little of February 2013; it was a major thread the needle storm in a not so great pattern. Will the results be the same though is the question. I received about 8" from that storm.Ding Ding Ding! I recieved about 41". Different synoptically though. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nothing like that as there was a huge phase bomb after an extended AO drop with colder air over the Northeast. The pattern definitely looks much better next week. If we get any significant snow on sat we take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yes, but the Euro doesn't have it closing off for us as the flow is more progressive. Thats why the sub 980mb lows are likely BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Thats why the sub 980mb lows are likely BS Almost every model run closes this off south of LI. The 12z Euro OP just missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Almost every model run closes this off south of LI. The 12z Euro OP just missed. You can get sub 980 lows that don't close off at this latitude but its rare, the 93 blizzard I think was not close off at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 You can get sub 980 lows that don't close off at this latitude but its rare, the 93 blizzard I think was not close off at 500 Good memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Eps with a great miller B signal for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Mount Holly says just a 30 percent chance of some snow Monday around an inch tomorrow - snow drought IS COMING TO AN END http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Pretty clear signal for a big storm saturday.... dont know what NEG NAO is seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 You can still get rapid pressure drops in a progressive pattern provided you have the strong jet streaks and strong PVA. That's what the Euro is doing. It's going to be hard to avoid some tainting, however, with that low north of the Lakes. I still think there are plenty of dynamics that can help change back over to a nice period of heavy snow. But we do have to remember that it's only Tuesday and the storm is on Saturday. We're also not far off from closing off at H5 earlier and allowing fewer tainting issues and much more of a CCB afterward. Either way, the coast should be wary of tainting, but that doesn't mean a 4"+ snow event can't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Ding Ding Ding! I recieved about 41". Different synoptically though. United States Coast Guard Rescue Swimmer wow - I was in the city and got about 9" but know the LI/CT/MASS were much larger -- again different syntactical setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The euro ensemble mean is a little warmer than the OP at 96 hrs as the mean track is a few miles west of the OP over Eastern NC. http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/medium/ensemble-mean-and-spread-four-standard-parameters?area=North%20America&step=96&relative_archive_date=2015012012¶meter=Temperature%20at%20850hPa Some of the members are up to sub-975mb over NJ, so I would not use the EPS mean as a temp/snow forecast for this weekend as of now. Obviously things will wind up much less amplified, but all we can take away from the ensembles is that there really isn't an overwhelming chance that this will escape out to sea like yesterdays runs suggested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Upton has precip for the weekend - rain and snow and some snow showers early next week http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 A quick note on the forecast teleconnections: The potential storm is forecast to occur when the AO is positive and the PNA is positive (according to the GFS ensembles). Such a set up has seen numerous 4"-8" snowstorms in the NYC area during the second half of January. In fact, an AO+/PNA+ accounts for 46% of such storms since 1950. If one is looking for a bigger storm, all snowstorms that brought more than 8" to NYC during the second half of January commenced during an AO-/PNA+ set up. The AO will not be negative long enough to negate the SE Ridge playing a role for coastal sections. Interior sections always have more leeway in marginal set ups like this one. While I'm not arguing against statistics, I think there's a little too much focus on the index calculation here, and not enough examination of 500mb heights. The latter is far more important in terms of the resultant weather pattern. Over the next 48 hours, the AO value will be negative as per the official calculation: approximately -1 standard deviation according to the ECMWF ensemble mean. At the time of the potential event, 1/24, Saturday, the AO is forecasted to be +0.8 standard deviation. Below are the following images: [1] 500mb anomalies for the time of likely AO minimum value, tomorrow (around -1 SD) [2] 500mb anomalies for 12z 1/24, when the AO is forecasted to be close to +1 SD Given this: how is the first image structurally and synoptically superior to the second image, at which time the AO will probably be at least 1.6 standard deviations higher? I would argue that the time at which the AO is technically positive (Saturday) will be more conducive synoptically than the period in which the AO is technically negative (tomorrow), due to the expansion of higher 500mb heights southwestward into northern Greenland, and bridging across the Arctic toward the NW territories. This east based blocking feature, again while not accurately represented by the index calculations of the NAO or AO, has historically been an important feature in antecedent patterns for Northeast US snow events. Thus, it is my opinion, that while the index calculation of the AO is negative now, and positive at the time of the storm, the index calculation does not accurately represent the 500mb progression (as is often the case). Furthermore, the time frame of the storm seems to have more favorable height pattern downstream when the AO is slightly positive. The height rises in the aforementioned region prevent a rapid exit of the 50/50 feature, and that feature limits height rises out ahead of the short wave in question. [1] [2] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Pretty clear signal for a big storm saturday.... dont know what NEG NAO is seeing. Just read the Mt Holly NWS service 415 AFD. They are not impressed with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Just read the Mt Holly NWS service 415 AFD. They are not impressed with the storm. NWS is always conservative at this juncture which makes sense. Another day of model runs like today and their tune will likely change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Upton LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SHOULDPROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES INTHE TEENS INLAND AND 20S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVESOFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH 12Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW ACOASTAL STORM THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAYNIGHT. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OFTHIS COASTAL LOW AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES. AT THIS TIME...WILLCONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Mt holly is looking at the same model output we are. We like them also have pro mets dissecting that model output though while they need to be conservative our pro mets aren't giving a official forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 975 mb members over NJ aren't likely to happen, but that doesn't mean that the OP can't come 20 or 30 miles closer to the coast than todays run later on. Sometimes when the mean is left of the OP, the OP shifts a hair west in the next run. But it's hard to tell if that is going to be the case or not until we see the 0z run. The Euro has had tendencies to be too amped the last few years in patterns not favorable for big storms...I think it may be the case again. It has done well though the last 2 weeks, it definitely came out of its cold streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f096_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The important part is that the AO rebound allows the more amplified Euro run to have a stronger SE Ridge ahead of the low introducing P-Type issues for the coast instead of a 100% snow solution. I don't really have a guess at specific snow amounts so early in the game, just that we are going to lose a percentage to liquid instead of being all frozen. A more -AO ahead of the storm would have raised the prospects for all snow or a suppressed storm if the AO was too strong. The AO rebounds after the storm hits has past us on the Euro Ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The 18z GFS is pretty close to the 12z ECMWF OP through 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Pbp for 18z gfs greatly appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's more amped up than the 12z run but not quite to the level of the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Still nothing like the Euro aloft once you get beyond 60 hours or so, but it's an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hour 78 large surface low over the Florida Georgia line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 A lot more amped up now at 84 hrs than previous runs. Surface low near Charleston, precip almost up to the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Trough goes negative tilt hour 87. Low over Wilmington, precip almost to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Hour 90 over OBX, precip up to 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 hr 90 light snow up to nyc...dca and balt getting mod snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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