IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Many of the individuals are coastal huggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 This was a huge shift West. The OP is almost an Eastern outlier to its own ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Excellent consensus for a major storm by 108 hours. Heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The mean tracks from the VA coast to just inside the benchmark. A few of the individuals are in the low 960's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The mean tracks from the VA coast to just inside the benchmark. A few of the individuals are in the low 960'sWoah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 The mean SLP is 988mb just SW of the benchmark. You're almost never going to do better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The mean tracks from the VA coast to just inside the benchmark. A few of the individuals are in the low 960's All snow or a mix on the coast? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Sub-988mb low inside the Benchmark. Its pretty much a classic cluster of 970-980mb lows near MTK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This was a huge shift West. The OP is almost an Eastern outlier to its own ensembles. Great news for the interior folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 About 60% of the individuals are in the mid 970's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 All snow or a mix on the coast? Rossi You really can't use an ensemble mean for precip types. But the mean shows 3-6" for the area. More the further away from the city you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 About 60% of the individuals are in the mid 970's. Pretty impressive to see how many of the 51 members are coastal huggers by 102 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Great news for the interior folks! an ideal track would be a 100 miles north of last nights 0z euro run or 50 miles north of today's 12z run. Hard to pinpoint that 4.5 days away but it's getting closer quick. The fun part is the tracking imo. This could be a huge blizzard from DC to Boston obviously still days away. We don't want that low to track too close to us otherwise you know what will happen. Obviously the precipitation shield should be a wider one with a storm of this magnitude. If I were to guess, it'd be a 984 millibar storm just inside of BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 All snow or a mix on the coast? Rossi the mean is warm... mixing makes it to sussex county at 102 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Thanks yanks fan great pbp for those only taking a quick glance at work. Sub 980 inside the bm would have crazy dynamics and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Pretty impressive to see how many of the 51 members are coastal huggers by 102 hours. Indeed. Now I'm convinced this is coming NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 the mean is warm... mixing makes it to sussex county at 102 hrs Forky with that strong of a storm wouldn't dynamics overcome a marginal baseline esp with that wind direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's a little hard to see but I think the deepest member gets it down to 958mb at 120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 the mean is warm... mixing makes it to sussex county at 102 hrs Euro from past experience tends to be warm on most our large snowstorms; although a mix in the middle of the storm can happen for a short period of time. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Indeed. Now I'm convinced this is coming NW. Strong signal that the puppy has room to move further NW on a future runs. All in all great trends for the interior folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's a little hard to see but I think the deepest member gets it down to 958mb at 120hrs. Any ensemble info on the Monday storm? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metTURNEDpro Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Forky with that strong of a storm wouldn't dynamics overcome a marginal baseline esp with that wind directionboxing - December 2010 North American blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertgny Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 boxing - December 2010 North American blizzard NOOpe not close. Jan 2011 blizzard better analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Any ensemble info on the Monday storm? Rossi Mean is 1000mb south of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 nice look - remember seeing a similar look earlier this year and everyone went nuts over it, we know how that turned out... I am NOT saying that will happen here, but 4-5 days out, I'll approach this one cautiously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 there is zero room for error near the coast. zero. the track has to pretty much be just like the 12z euro (maybe a hair west) or we get too little precip or rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2015 Author Share Posted January 20, 2015 Looking at the high res Euro the warmest surface temps get in the city is 33F and it's for one panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 there is zero room for error near the coast. zero. the track has to pretty much be just like the 12z euro (maybe a hair west) or we get too little precip or rain luckily it's a weekend storm - if it comes west, those wanting to see a storm can always take a trip out of the city... but agree with you, little wiggle room which isnt great for city folks 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 This reminds me a little of February 2013; it was a major thread the needle storm in a not so great pattern. Will the results be the same though is the question. I received about 8" from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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